Category Archive for "TMT"

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November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

We believe that TMT is in the midst of a once-in-a-generation sea-change paradigm shift, driven by mobile platforms, cloud computing, and wireless broadband. The last such shift, catalyzed in the ‘80’s by PCs, cell phones, and telephone/cable deregulation, drove waves

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Quick Thoughts: QCOM – In the Right Place at the Right Time

–        Gainsaying the naysayers, QCOM sees double digit growth in 3G/4G handsets with surprisingly stable ASPs for the next few years – driving chip opportunity and royalty collections. –        Snapdragon is the undisputed SoC leader, dominant in flagship smartphones while

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR – A Week Later

–        TWTR has settled into the low-mid $40’s, yielding a fully diluted market cap of roughly $30B – coincidently the same floor valuation suggested by discounting a future multiple of sales. –        4Q13 consensus expects a 32% QoQ seasonal sales

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Quick Thoughts: A Busy Day in TMT – A Whole Lotta Shaking Going On

– QCOM delivered on the top line, but missed EPS due to $0.10 of litigation costs. 4Q guidance was cautious, but CEO Jacobs blessed a double digit 5 year CAGR for sales and earnings. – Meanwhile, CBS handily beat estimates

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November 3, 2013 – Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky

  TWTR sales growth will be driven by 5 factors: number of users, engagement by users, ad density, ad pricing and additional monetization vehicles. Monthly active users were up 39% YoY in 3Q13, with considerable further room for growth, given

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Quick Thoughts: Facebook Lights the Way for Twitter

–          FB and TWTR revenues are driven by the same things – how many user visits can you attract and how much advertising can you get them to view? –          FB spooked investors on the first driver by showing decelerating

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Quick Thoughts: Apple – Yes, but Can They Keep it Up?

–       Apple beat consensus with 4QFY13 revs of $37.5B vs. $36.9B and EPS of $8.26 vs. $7.96, but the dreaded whisper number was apparently higher still –       Expectations and iPhone launches aside, the results are kind of “meh” – sales

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR – Questions for the Roadshow

–        Preliminary pricing for TWTR at $17-20/share values it at $12.5B, fully diluted at the upper end of the range. I believe that it is worth $30B+ and that pricing may rise ahead of issue –        TWTR management has begun

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Quick Thoughts: Mister Softy’s blow out quarter and business as usual at Amazon

Quick Thoughts: Mister Softy’s blow out quarter and business as usual at Amazon –          MSFT blew out earnings amidst a sweeping reorganization; It’s difficult to compare growth across segments, but growth is growth and more to come with new products

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October 23, 2013 – Twitter: There’s Gold in Them Thar Tweets

TWTR is losing money today, but not for long. Stripping out stock compensation, TWTR’s COGS (35.5% of sales), R&D spending (34.5%), and SG&A (40.7%) currently yield (-9.7%) non-GAAP operating margins, compared to FB at 41%, GOOG at 32% and LNKD

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