Category Archive for "Research"

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AAPL: iPhone 6 Upgrades Setting up a Difficult Compare

Using data disclosed by Apple during its 2FQ 15 earnings release and call, it’s possible to triangulate iPhone mix and penetration of sales to existing users: with an average ASP of $659, we estimate iPhone 6/6 Plus represent 60-65% of

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ABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15

On a sales-weighted basis, prices (paid by retailers) for US generics rose 4.7% in 1Q15, substantially faster than in 4Q14 (0.5%), and on par with the average pace of inflation (5.1%) seen since early 2013 All else held equal, generic

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ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic

ABBV’s acquisition of PCYC raised eyebrows, both because of the valuation placed on PCYC, and because ABBV has a promising lead compound (ABT-199) being developed for the same B-cell malignancies treated by PCYC’s main product (Imbruvica) Much debate centers on

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Mobile Commerce: AAPL and GOOG Have Home Field Advantage

AAPL and GOOG have enormous advantages in the emerging phenomenon of mobile commerce. With platform control over mobile devices, they stand between consumers and the many companies looking to engage with them to influence and complete mobile transactions online and

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SNY: The (multi-faceted) Bull Case

We believe SNY is undervalued, for 3 independent reasons, any one of which is sufficient to show the shares are undervalued With partner REGN, SNY is one of two entrants (the other being AMGN) in the emerging PCSK9 class. Our

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CVS, MCK, RAD, WBA: How WBA or CVS can fight narrowing retail networks – buy RAD

US retail pharmacy dispensing margins have grown to a point at which forcing them lower is a priority for drug benefit designers. Because the US has roughly 34% more pharmacy outlets than it needs, this can be (and is being)

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AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002

Three distinct drugs or drug classes are in late stage development for treatment of lipid abnormalities: PCSK9’s (AMGN, SNY, REGN), CETP’s (MRK, LLY), and ETC-1002 (ESPR). This raises the question of which drugs fit where if all or most are

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QCOM: The Sun Comes After the Rain

Sentiment on QCOM has come a full circle back to the skepticism that plagued the stock at the time of our last detailed look in May 2013, falling to “Death Watch” quadrant of our valuation framework, signifying weak projected cash

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

Using patent data we estimate the amount and quality of innovation in companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), and then determine whether companies’ share prices accurately reflect what’s in these hidden pipelines.  Since inception (November 2012), companies that screen as

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AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN

We see peak US sales potential for PCSK9’s in the $5.5B to $8.5B range before outcomes data, and in the $9.6B to $15B range after outcomes data are available. By comparison, consensus expects combined 5th year global sales (our estimates

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