Category Archive for "Research"

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LyondellBasell – Hard To Fault

First half oil prices were almost half the levels seen in 1H 2014, yet LYB has managed to produce 17% more net income than in the prior year. EPS growth is greater because of the significant share buyback, which looks

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Quick Thoughts: Everybody Hates Twitter

The monomaniacal focus on MAUs does TWTR a disservice – it is a lot more like YouTube than Facebook, and no one cares about Google’s MAUs. Project Lightning and an aggressive marketing campaign to educate consumers should stimulate engagement and keep the

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Dow Chemical – Neither Fish nor Fowl

  Dow Chemical’s second quarter demonstrated a problem that has concerned investors – both passive and active – for some time. In the face of apparently very strong US and European basic plastics margins, the company did not do that

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Quick Thoughts: The Emperor’s New Watch

The Apple Watch – Everybody has an opinion. Here is mine. So how is the new Apple Watch doing after its first three months? Two weeks ago, market research firm Slice Intelligence roiled the waters with a report which, based

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EBAY & PYPL: The Divorce is Final

After a strong 2Q15, PYPL heads to its Monday spin with significant business momentum. Given the near term trajectory of e-commerce, and competitive moat of its small business focus, 2015 estimates look easily achievable and 2016’s are plausible, likely a

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TMT: 2Q 2015 Earnings Preview

1Q15 shook things up with unexpectedly weak digital ad spending and an unexpectedly strong shift to the enterprise cloud. This quarter, we expect digital ads to get back on track in the US against somewhat muted expectations, with the cloud

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TMUS: Wireless Ain’t What it Used to Be

We believe that TMUS is worth $55-60 based on projected future market share gains and margin improvements. It is winning a zero-sum game in the increasingly stagnant US wireless market, as consumer priorities shift from voice coverage to data service,

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CVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?

If we assume CVS cannot repeat the TGT store-in-store deal with other major mass merchants, but can do such a deal with a single supermarket (who would likely impose limits on further deals with other supermarkets), its next best option

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Mobile Payments: The TMT Perspective

M-payments offer very little benefit to consumers or merchants today. Uptake, even for the widely hyped ApplePay, is disappointing. Meanwhile, retailers, their customers saturated with loyalty cards and engagement falling, see mobile apps as a big opportunity and m-payments as

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SNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent

Last week’s Advisory Committee vote implies the Praluent and Repatha labels might be somewhat restricted until their outcomes trials are completed. Presumably positive outcomes data would lead to de-restriction of the labels The Praluent trial (ODYSSEY) has a scheduled completion

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