Category Archive for "Research"

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

Using patent data, we estimate the relative ‘true economic’ value of companies’ pre-phase 3 (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), then compare these estimates to the apparent market capitalization of these same pipelines. Our fundamentally based estimate of a given pipeline’s value often

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR’s lock-up expiration feeds the bears. Time to buy.

–          The expiration of TWTR’s post-IPO lock up triggered a significant sell-off, taking shares to an all-time trading low of just over $32, off 45% in less than 3 months. This is a serious overreaction. –          TWTR is growing revenues

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Payments: A Primer on Card Payment Security and the Target Precedent

The retirement of CEO Greg Steinhafel, apparently related to the Target data breach last November, is shocking. While the proximate cause of the breach was weak security in the POS systems, the ultimate cause is Visa’s desire to preserve the

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Quick Thoughts – TSN, Rate of Change is What Matters

This morning, TSN reported Q2 ’14 EPS results of $0.60 per share, falling shy of consensus by $0.03 per share.  Revenue, a less important metric given the volatility of the company’s margin structure, was +7.2% year on year, beating consensus

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MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers

MRK’s economic returns to R&D spending (the relationship between Yr1 R&D spending and Yr10 adjusted earnings) have been slightly below the (falling) industry average since 2009. For reference, industry returns to current R&D spending appear to be below cost of

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Quick Thoughts: MA – Beyond the Switch

MA is aggressively buying back stock with the payout ratio in 2014Q1 rising to 2x as the firm repurchased $1.7bn funded in part by an inaugural debt issue of $1.5bn (taking the debt-to-equity ratio to 22%). The repurchase of 21mm

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Quick Thoughts – ENR, a Roll-Up now Rolling…Down?

In conjunction with its earnings release this morning, ENR announced its intent to separate into two, separate publicly traded companies: Consumer products (batteries and lighting products) – battery category is in secular decline, excellent free cash flow profile, capital structure

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR – Not Surprised That User Growth Issues Haven’t Been Resolved … YET

Quick Thoughts: TWTR – Not Surprised That User Growth Issues Haven’t Been Resolved … YET –          TWTR’s strong ad sales and surprise pro forma profit were overshadowed by the relative lack in growth of active users, continuing a trend established

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Westlake – Showing/Giving Us the Money

WLK has indicated that it will place its US ethylene and pipeline assets into an MLP and has filed a registration statement for an initial public offering of the MLP.  Not surprisingly the stock has reacted very favorably to the

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Quick Thoughts – ADM Q1 Results

ADM reported Q1 ’14 results that were well shy of consensus this morning ($0.55 per share, adjusted, versus expectations of $0.74 per share).  While a less impactful number, revenues missed consensus estimates as well. While we like ADM’s long-term positioning

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