Category Archive for "Research"

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Quick Thoughts: The Signal from the Rate-Markets on 2015 Margin-Lift for Large Banks is Deafening

With 6-month Libor (6ML) at just over 30 basis points, the deposit franchises of US Commercial banks are contributing next-to-nothing to net interest margins; specifically, we estimate deposit franchises contributed less than 10 basis points to aggregate net interest margins

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ADM and the M&A Carousel

This morning, ADM hopped on the M&A carousel and announced that it was acquiring WILD Flavors GmbH for approximately $3.0 billion.  WILD is a peer to companies such as International Flavors and Fragrances (IFF) and Givaudan, producing flavors and taste

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Quick Thoughts – Employment Trends

We don’t like reporting the news, but will happily follow on with a perspective that we think may be getting lost or ignored – in this case, the non-farm payroll numbers released this morning The headline number was unquestionably positive,

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The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing

Average prices for traditional drugs (e.g. drugs for common chronic conditions, and for relatively non-serious acute conditions) grow rapidly because manufacturers steadily inflate existing drug prices over time. In contrast, average prices for specialty drugs (e.g. for less common debilitating

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Quick Thoughts – STZ Q1 Earnings

With the stock up solidly this morning we suspect that there won’t be any shortage of cheerleaders offering commentary on the company’s earnings release – the company reported Q1 EPS of $1.07 versus consensus of $0.93. We believe that certain

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Quick Thoughts – Construction Spending

Some interesting data on construction spending emerged from this morning’s release from the Census Bureau; We focus on private construction spending, rather than total (obviously, total less public = private) as private tends to be more volatile and more revealing

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DuPont – Lower Guidance But Big Savings Ahead

DuPont lowered its guidance for 2014 by around 6% last night, citing slower than expected demand in the corn market – too much to offset gains in soy.  Unlike FMC it appears that the DD problems were focused in the

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Quick Thoughts: Google I/O – Android is here, there, and everywhere

Quick Thoughts: Google I/O – Android is here, there, and everywhere –          GOOG’s I/O keynote introduced the new “Android L” and focused on extending a consistent Android and application experience into new venues, such as wearables, TVs and automobiles –         

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Quick Note – Barclays: Dark Pool Allegations Shocking, but Stock Trades with Substantial Margin of Safety

The NY AG’s complaint against Barclays around alleged fraud and deceit in the operation and marketing of its dark pool is shocking, and the 5% decline in the stock price since the filing shaves GBP2bn of market cap. The central

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Quick Thoughts – PM Investor Day, Revised Guidance

In conjunction with the company’s investor day, PM offered revised 2014 EPS guidance: EPS in the range of $4.87 to $4.97 versus a prior estimate of $5.09 to $5.19; The lowered guidance ($0.22 per share at both the high and

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