US net pricing gains explain more than 100 percent of US revenue growth for the large-caps as a whole; making net price growth crucial not only to future growth but also to dividends, a signal feature of valuations Net pricing
The 2014 – ’15 flu season is slightly worse than 2013 – ’14 overall; we estimate flu-related hospital spending will be up roughly 30% Notably, most of the additional hospitalizations are occurring among the elderly (65+), in fact hospitalization rates
Returns to R&D spending are below costs of capital and deteriorating further; despite this the average large pharmaceutical company has increased R&D:sales ratios over the last decade. This implies that managements have faced little if any pressure to return cash
As we move into the New Year, initial expectations are for a broad continuation of the trends seen in 2014. As published in our monthly Industrials & Materials review, Transport and Packaging stocks were the big winners at the sector
Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days
2017 consensus for SNY’s US basal insulins fell from $9.9B to $7.5B after the company warned 2015 sales growth would be flat, citing price competition. We believe estimates have fallen too far, and imply an unstable pricing environment with significant