Category Archive for "Research"

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Quick Thoughts: NFLX – What a Difference a Quarter Makes

–     NFLX bounced back from its 3Q14 drubbing to surprise in 4Q with 4.33M new subs and EPS of $0.72, both well above guidance and consensus expectations. Shares traded up 14% after hours. –     Original programming is paying off big

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The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s

US net pricing gains explain more than 100 percent of US revenue growth for the large-caps as a whole; making net price growth crucial not only to future growth but also to dividends, a signal feature of valuations Net pricing

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Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2015

2014 was a relatively quiet year in TMT, with the BABA IPO and the iPhone6 arguably the biggest events for investors. Our 2014 new year’s predictions were more on target than not, with calls for Samsung’s smartphone woes, IP litigation

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Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings

The 2014 – ’15 flu season is slightly worse than 2013 – ’14 overall; we estimate flu-related hospital spending will be up roughly 30% Notably, most of the additional hospitalizations are occurring among the elderly (65+), in fact hospitalization rates

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R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive

Returns to R&D spending are below costs of capital and deteriorating further; despite this the average large pharmaceutical company has increased R&D:sales ratios over the last decade. This implies that managements have faced little if any pressure to return cash

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More of the Same in 2015?

As we move into the New Year, initial expectations are for a broad continuation of the trends seen in 2014. As published in our monthly Industrials & Materials review, Transport and Packaging stocks were the big winners at the sector

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Net Neutrality: Treating the Symptoms Rather than the Disease

The debate on net neutrality is poised to intensify as the FCC considers the President’s request to regulate broadband as Title II common carriage and as it evaluates CMCSA’s proposed merger with TWC. We see merit on both sides of

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise

2017 consensus for SNY’s US basal insulins fell from $9.9B to $7.5B after the company warned 2015 sales growth would be flat, citing price competition. We believe estimates have fallen too far, and imply an unstable pricing environment with significant

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Twitter: Black and Blue, but Read All Over

Twitter: Black and Blue, but Read All Over For the past year, TWTR has been whipsawed on the volatility of its monthly active user growth and the revolving door of the company’s management ranks. While many investors are skeptical, the

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