Category Archive for "Healthcare"

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Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know

Republicans almost certainly will maintain control of the House, and have roughly 60% odds of gaining Senate control – 70% if independent Maine Senator Angus King agrees to caucus with Republicans. Republican leadership of the Senate would likely bring the

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GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case

GILD’s decision to authorize HCV generics in 91 lower income countries arguably reflects multiple considerations, including that generics were likely to soon appear in these countries with or without GILD’s authorization By granting generic licenses to a core group of

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ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari

We believe consensus incorrectly views GILD’s pending hepatitis C (HCV) regimen as having consistently greater efficacy than ABBV’s pending regimen; in this note we compare pivotal trial results for the two regimens side by side, and show that the ABBV

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

Using patent data, we estimate the relative ‘true economic’ value of companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), and then compare these estimates to the apparent market capitalization of these same pipelines. Since inception (November of 2012), our portfolios of stocks

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for Current-Generation Hepatitis C Treatments

We believe consensus estimates for global HCV sales are reasonable; however we believe the share of consensus allocated to GILD’s regimens (77%) is a best-case scenario; and that the share of global consensus attributed to ABBV’s pending HCV franchise is

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates

We expect 4.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 2.6% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Following the BEA’s nearly unprecedented downward revision of its 1Q14 demand estimate, our projection

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing

Average prices for traditional drugs (e.g. drugs for common chronic conditions, and for relatively non-serious acute conditions) grow rapidly because manufacturers steadily inflate existing drug prices over time. In contrast, average prices for specialty drugs (e.g. for less common debilitating

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 2Q14 Estimates

We expect 6.8% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 5.2% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Our estimate of demand intensity is sharply higher in 2Q14 – reflecting an expectation

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