Category Archive for "Healthcare"

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AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002

Three distinct drugs or drug classes are in late stage development for treatment of lipid abnormalities: PCSK9’s (AMGN, SNY, REGN), CETP’s (MRK, LLY), and ETC-1002 (ESPR). This raises the question of which drugs fit where if all or most are

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

Using patent data we estimate the amount and quality of innovation in companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), and then determine whether companies’ share prices accurately reflect what’s in these hidden pipelines.  Since inception (November 2012), companies that screen as

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AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN

We see peak US sales potential for PCSK9’s in the $5.5B to $8.5B range before outcomes data, and in the $9.6B to $15B range after outcomes data are available. By comparison, consensus expects combined 5th year global sales (our estimates

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ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica’s US Pricing Has Room to Grow

Imbruvica’s only dosage form is a 140mg capsule, with a US price of $101.88. Most indications for which Imbruvica is currently approved are dosed with 3 capsules daily (420mg), for an annual treatment cost of $111,559 The average price for

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WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter

Retail prescription margin growth has outpaced CPI since 1990, drug pricing since at least 2001, and any other major US retail setting’s gross margin growth since at least 2004 It’s not because we lack enough pharmacies, it’s because traditional drug

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation

Since early 2013, prices for generics sold in the US at retail have risen more than 40% on a sales weighted basis Three-quarters of this inflation was driven by straightforward median reversion: a host of products with very low prices

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Why ABBV is Still a Value

GILD’s disclosure of an expected 46% average Harvoni discount for 2015 reduces our net pricing expectations for ABBV’s Viekira Pak to roughly $42,000 per regimen, down from roughly $60,000 Despite this, we still see ABBV as a value, simply because

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The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update

Consensus expectations for SNY’s basal insulins (Lantus/Toujeo) appear too low. Expectations fell 28% after SNY warned last October that US pricing had weakened, and have fallen to the point that consensus now expects 2017 sales to be lower than 2014

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The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s

US net pricing gains explain more than 100 percent of US revenue growth for the large-caps as a whole; making net price growth crucial not only to future growth but also to dividends, a signal feature of valuations Net pricing

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