Category Archive for "Healthcare"

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A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

Drug and biotech stocks tend to outperform their peers in the months before and after scheduled approvals of major new products. Relative performance gains are spread somewhat evenly across time; risks are somewhat concentrated in the days just before and

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate

We expect 3.0% y/y health services demand growth during 4Q12, the product of 1.1% growth in unit demand and 1.9% growth in pricing. Total demand growth is projected to be 10bp higher than 3Q12–a combination of flat unit demand and

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An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines

Pre-phase III pipelines in some cases represent more than a quarter of a company’s enterprise value (EV). Companies’ disclosures of pre-phase III details are extremely limited, thus the market cannot reliably value a substantial percentage of EV using traditional information

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Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidizes eligible households’ purchase of health insurance; in the first year of operation subsidies are geared to keep households’ premium costs below certain percentages of income Subsidies are subject to two layers of indexing: ‘regular’

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate

We expect 3.8% y/y health services demand growth during 3Q12, the product of 1.8% growth in unit demand and 2.0% growth in pricing. Total demand growth is 20 bps lower than our previous 3Q12 estimate – both the unit demand

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US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects

Per-capita intensity (unit demand) rises and falls with the employment cycle; on an age- and health status-matched basis, privately insured households consume 2.7x the care of uninsured households. As a rough benchmark, a 1 percent change in adjusted (for labor

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US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

We expect Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance and pricing effects to reduce real demand growth by roughly 30bp over the period from 2012 – 2021 Medicaid should expand to 100 FPL in most states; this translates to enrollment gains

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

We expect 3.9% y/y health services demand growth during 3Q/12, the product of 1.9% growth in unit demand and 2.0% growth in pricing. This marks a 10bp increase over our initial 3Q12 estimate, the net of a 20bp lower unit

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Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds

We frame real growth in US healthcare demand as the simple product of: growth in persons, growth in per capita utilization, and growth in price. Our ‘baseline’ estimate of real demand growth, defined as the rate of growth one would

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US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth

This note quantifies a ‘baseline’ rate of real growth in US healthcare demand, which we define as the rate of growth one would expect sans any upcoming secular, cyclical, or reform effects We estimate baseline growth of 4.8% +/- 0.9%

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