We expect 3.6% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q13, the product of 1.8% growth in unit demand, and 1.8% price growth; a very slight deceleration from the 3.7% actual growth rate in 4Q12. Unit demand growth
Hospitals’ share price performance (v. SP500) is highly correlated with changes to real revenue; Hospitals tend to outperform on accelerating revenue, and vice versa. On this basis, pending volume gains (rising employment, reform-related expansion coverage) argue for owning Hospitals Hospitals’
[print_me] More Republican states are expanding Medicaid fully (to 138 pct of the Federal Poverty Level, or FPL) than we projected. Persons between 101 and 138FPL are now more likely to be in Medicaid than in exchange-based commercial plans Medicaid
We expect 3.6% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q13, the product of 1.7% growth in unit demand, and 1.8% price growth; this marks a slight deceleration from the 3.7% actual growth rate in 4Q12. Unit demand
Key themes are new product flow, rising per-capita unit demand, direct and indirect effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and mid-term pressures on US (small molecule) drug pricing Overweight recommendations: Select Specialty Pharmaceutical and Biotech names with pending new
Our established model of health services demand growth projects 2.8% y/y growth during 4Q12, the product of 0.9% growth in unit demand, and 1.9% price growth. However we are not convinced that the unusually severe flu season has been yet
We estimate that 4Q12 saw roughly 28 more flu-related hospital admissions per 100,000 population than 4Q11; this implies a +/- 1 percent flu-related gain in health services demand yoy The ultimate duration and severity of the current season cannot be
We’ve long held that use of the Average Wholesale Price (AWP) benchmark in commercial drug benefit contracts has enabled outsized generic dispensing margins in the drug trades (PBMs, drug retail, drug wholesale); and, that the replacement of AWP by either
Ignoring flu effects, we would expect 2.7% y/y health services demand growth during 4Q12, the product of 0.7% growth in unit demand and 1.9% growth in pricing. Total ‘ex-flu’ demand growth is projected to be 20bp lower than 3Q12–the combination
States’ economic interests are best served by capping Medicaid eligibility at 100 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), as opposed to the 138 FPL cap called for by the ACA If the state covers 100 – 138 FPL residents
