Category Archive for "Published"

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The Open Source Software Threat – Wait, It Gets Worse!

The direct threat of open source software (OSS) to the flagship products of the major commercial software vendors is accelerating with the growing maturity of the open source movement, even as the impending move to the cloud opens another broad

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PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power

Using Medco (MHS) as a proxy for large PBMs, we show that generic buying margins dominate PBM gross profits; PBMs appear to have sacrificed most (or even all) alternative sources of gross margin, levering the industry’s pricing structure almost completely

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Mobile Processors: Here, There, and Everywhere

  The three decade run of the PC ensconced Intel at the top of the semiconductor food chain, a position that appears ever more precarious as mobile platforms, largely based on ARM processor designs, proliferate.  In response, Intel will introduce parts

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ACA at the Supreme Court – What You Should Know

This note summarizes the events leading up to the Supreme Court’s likely review of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and attempts to handicap the timing and outcome of the review We anticipate a verdict in or around June of 2012.

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TMT M&A: Fat Wallets and Attractive Targets

The pace of M&A in TMT has accelerated in 2011, with more and larger deals than in 2010.   Through 3 quarters, 169 TMT deals have been done in 2011 for $84.4B, compared with 168 and $49.7 for the same period

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President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators

  The congressional ‘super committee’ created by the Budget Control Act (“BCA”) this summer and tasked with cutting the cumulative 2013-2021 deficit by $1.2T by November 23[1] met for the third time on September 22. Ahead of that meeting, President

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A Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements: AMP v. NADAC

This note compares the two drug acquisition cost benchmarks (Average Manufacturer Price or AMP, and National Average Drug Acquisition Cost or NADAC) that CMS intends to make public. NADAC values have not been calculated or published; however because Alabama’s Average

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CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP – Why This Matters

Generic dispensing (i.e. gross) margins are far higher than branded dispensing margins throughout the drug trades (wholesalers, retailers, and PBMs). In our view this is primarily due to the traditional use of average wholesale price (AWP) as a benchmark for

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Patent Wars!

  Mobile patents were hot before Google’s purchase of MMI and its IPR portfolio.  Since then, the tortuous legal process for sorting out the IPR mess has a dominant topic for investors.  Market leaders are tactically litigating against one another

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A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection

Therapeutic (drug, biotech and specialty pharma) stocks tend to gradually outperform their peers in the year or so preceding and following major anticipated product approvals. The exception is the period immediately surrounding the scheduled regulatory action, where risks are skewed

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