Category Archive for "Published"

Home »

4Q11 Earnings Update: Plenty of Runway for Cloud Leaders

4Q11 results revealed continued strong growth for TMT companies that we believe are poised to lead a comprehensively disruptive shift to the cloud that could open hundreds of billions of dollars in new opportunity.  Nonetheless, valuation for these companies and

Read More

Large Cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable

List price increases account for 48% of real US pharma sales growth since 1980, and roughly ½ of global returns to R&D spending since 1990. More recently eroding mix has compounded reliance on real pricing, which drove 145% of real

Read More

The Future of Video Advertising: Three-Screens, #hashtags, and Streams

  The 2012 Super Bowl may have been a turning point for leading edge advertisers in embracing hybrid campaigns across multiple screens and media.  However, the balance of the market still tilts toward traditional TV ads, partly because the analytical

Read More

Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?

Most multichannel TV forecasts assume a stable industry model facing incremental changes that will play out over many years.  We believe that assumptions for robust ARPU gains, higher ad sales, and a stable subscriber base are unrealistic, given high current

Read More

Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power

Hospitals trade at a 30+% discount (’13 PE forward) to cap-weighted Healthcare and the SP500; fundamental concerns appear centered on a combination of weak volume / procedure mix, and the effect of Budget Control Act (BCA) related Medicare rate cuts

Read More

Virtualization and “The Cloud”: No Silver Lining Ahead For Enterprise Data Center Vendors

  Virtualization and “the cloud” are NOT equivalent concepts.  Virtualization is a software technology that allows many users to flexibly and securely share a computing resource.  It can be implemented within a single private enterprise data center, or by a

Read More

US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (i.e. Temporary) Reasons; Volume-Sensitive Names are Undervalued

From 1960 to 2007 average per-capita ‘units’ and ‘mix’ of care (which we follow using an aggregate measure termed ‘elasticity/mix’) grew 2.2% (real, per-capita) annually, then fell 40bp each year from 2008 through 2011, reaching a 50-year low in 2010

Read More

Enterprise IT: Send in the Clouds

Enterprise IT is in flux.  Weak economic conditions will pressure budgets, particularly in the government market, while CIOs contemplate a major strategic change of direction.  The focus is on making the deluge of data useful, fostering collaboration, and empowering a

Read More

The Future of the Internet: The Four Horsemen of the Consumer Cloud, or is it Five?

  The web is a dominant force in daily life for consumers, defining new social memes for communicating, shopping, organizing, working, learning, and being entertained as it absorbs value from the industries surrounding it.  Trillions of dollars, in device purchases,

Read More

TMT in 3Q11: Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent

TMT in 3Q11: Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent 3Q11 was a wild ride for TMT investors that ultimately rewarded a focus on enterprise IT, with particularly strong performance from low-multiple, old paradigm leaders that are unlikely

Read More
test