Category Archive for "Published"

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Wireless Carriers: Will the iPhone5 or New Spectrum Revive Carrier Competition?

The 2007 introduction of the iPhone changed wireless competition, stymieing carrier ambitions of AOL-like walled gardens and setting the subsidy bar much, much higher.  For AT&T, the exclusive deal with Apple was worth it for the big market share gains

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US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

We expect Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance and pricing effects to reduce real demand growth by roughly 30bp over the period from 2012 – 2021 Medicaid should expand to 100 FPL in most states; this translates to enrollment gains

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M&A Blog Follow-Up

All of the economic signals we see in the market today support the idea that demand growth is slow and is slowing globally.  China appears to be at a standstill, despite recent stimulus moves and slowly companies are realizing that

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

We expect 3.9% y/y health services demand growth during 3Q/12, the product of 1.9% growth in unit demand and 2.0% growth in pricing. This marks a 10bp increase over our initial 3Q12 estimate, the net of a 20bp lower unit

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TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World

In the three months since our last portfolio update, Apple and Google shares have risen more than 18% apiece, while the third and least established platform player Microsoft yo-yoed up and down before ending on a relative high note, up

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Grossly Impressed – US Industrials Gross Margin Expansion, Suggests Innovation is Alive and Well

In recent work on gross margin trajectories for US Industrials and Basic Industries, we can’t help but be impressed by the positive and stable growth in gross margins for the Industrials group.  We were less impressed (but not surprised) by

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ISM – Increasingly Slower Manufacturing!

The ISM numbers today again support our view that slowing demand is likely to cut significantly into second half earnings and in many cases drive some significant surprises or revisions.  Given that this coincides with a period of very high

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US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth

This note quantifies a ‘baseline’ rate of real growth in US healthcare demand, which we define as the rate of growth one would expect sans any upcoming secular, cyclical, or reform effects We estimate baseline growth of 4.8% +/- 0.9%

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Coming to America

In recent work we have looked at the M&A landscape for industrials and concluded that we expect to see a sharp increase in the number of deals and an increase in the values paid. This week we saw Hertz agree

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Social Networking: The Millennial Application Moves Out of its Parents’ Basement

Born into the PC era of neutral browsers and open web opportunity, companies like Facebook now grope for revenues in a new era dominated by harsh platform masters with an “app” access model that forces social networkers into a box. 

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