Category Archive for "Published"

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January 16, 2013 – Facebook: Stuck in the Friend Zone

  Facebook has a LOT of users, a LOT of unique information about them, and a large scale, sophisticated data processing infrastructure, with “big data” capability second only to Google.  FB has a good start in applying those assets, taking

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Flu Effects on US Health Demand

We estimate that 4Q12 saw roughly 28 more flu-related hospital admissions per 100,000 population than 4Q11; this implies a +/- 1 percent flu-related gain in health services demand yoy The ultimate duration and severity of the current season cannot be

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The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP

We’ve long held that use of the Average Wholesale Price (AWP) benchmark in commercial drug benefit contracts has enabled outsized generic dispensing margins in the drug trades (PBMs, drug retail, drug wholesale); and, that the replacement of AWP by either

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China Exports Rising – How Happy Should We Be?

The market seemed to like the news that China’s exports had increased dramatically in December.  But should we be that excited or should we be concerned? In all of our recent work, including our 13 picks for 2013 piece we

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Slower Growth – Harder Decisions

There appears to be reasonable consensus that the “cliff” bargain struck on New Year’s day, does not provide the resolution needed to take the uncertainty out of the minds of US corporate managements, and it constrains growth prospects in the

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FedEx – Incorrectly Packaged

Having now spent 26 years in the research business, equity and corporate, I know from bitter experience how unusual it is to get any form of immediate confirmation of a thesis (or a recommendation).  Consequently, I am incredibly grateful to

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike

Ignoring flu effects, we would expect 2.7% y/y health services demand growth during 4Q12, the product of 0.7% growth in unit demand and 1.9% growth in pricing. Total ‘ex-flu’ demand growth is projected to be 20bp lower than 3Q12–the combination

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Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL

States’ economic interests are best served by capping Medicaid eligibility at 100 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), as opposed to the 138 FPL cap called for by the ACA If the state covers 100 – 138 FPL residents

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Guarding Against Optimists

In recent work we have found a very strong inverse correlation between the levels of optimism that companies project to the market (vis-a-vis their expected earnings and earnings growth) and the performance of companies (as measured by many metrics).  Obviously,

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A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

Drug and biotech stocks tend to outperform their peers in the months before and after scheduled approvals of major new products. Relative performance gains are spread somewhat evenly across time; risks are somewhat concentrated in the days just before and

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