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March 13, 2013 – Mobile Semiconductors: In Search of the One Chip Solution

Portable devices will eventually push PC architecture into its dotage. This paradigm shift is creating huge opportunities for semiconductor companies, with processors, modems, radios and sensors the biggest categories, and with footprint and power efficiency paramount design considerations, as device

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Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables

Hospitals’ share price performance (v. SP500) is highly correlated with changes to real revenue; Hospitals tend to outperform on accelerating revenue, and vice versa. On this basis, pending volume gains (rising employment, reform-related expansion coverage) argue for owning Hospitals Hospitals’

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Low Cost US – The Shift Is Underway, SLOWLY Reversing a 40 Year Trend

Over the last 40 years, US manufacturing industries have – slowly at first, but then more rapidly – spread their wings into other parts of the world.  They did not do this to “be international” nor did they do it

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The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013

[print_me] More Republican states are expanding Medicaid fully (to 138 pct of the Federal Poverty Level, or FPL) than we projected. Persons between 101 and 138FPL are now more likely to be in Medicaid than in exchange-based commercial plans Medicaid

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate

We expect 3.6% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q13, the product of 1.7% growth in unit demand, and 1.8% price growth; this marks a slight deceleration from the 3.7% actual growth rate in 4Q12. Unit demand

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M&A – If It Is Really Heating Up, Beware the Overconfident

In work that we published in 2012 we took a deep dive into the world of M&A in the Industrials and Basics space and concluded that while the average deal did create shareholder value, the mistakes were more memorable than

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Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector

Key themes are new product flow, rising per-capita unit demand, direct and indirect effects of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), and mid-term pressures on US (small molecule) drug pricing Overweight recommendations: Select Specialty Pharmaceutical and Biotech names with pending new

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Optimism Everywhere – A Look at the S&P 500

Last week, on the suggestion of several clients, we followed up on our research on the underperformance of Industrials and Basics companies where managements are too optimistic about earnings growth, by extending the analysis (at a 30,000ft level) to the

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Caution Abounds, But Guidance for 2013 Almost Certain To Be Wrong

As we move through earnings season this year, the dominant theme is caution and concern about the shape of the global economy.  There is little if any heroic guidance, and where we are seeing companies support strong year on year

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike

Our established model of health services demand growth projects 2.8% y/y growth during 4Q12, the product of 0.9% growth in unit demand, and 1.9% price growth. However we are not convinced that the unusually severe flu season has been yet

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