Category Archive for "Published"

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Fertilizer Turmoil

It has been an interesting 24 hours for fertilizer stocks, to say the least.  Yesterday, Dan Loeb said in an investment letter that his firm had taken a stake in CF Industries (CF), North America’s largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer.  The

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Chemicals: Complexity Hitting Home – But Volatile Distraction is the Focus

In recent research we have discussed the problems of a too complex portfolio, in detail with regard to the difficulties investors have in understanding and valuing a complex story and in passing about the management challenge of trying to drive

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Providing Some Context for a Solid New Home Sales Number in June

We know it is the busiest day of corporate earnings, but there is more data out there than just EPS.  For example, new home sales (yesterday) rose 8.3% in June versus May to 497,000, the highest level since May ’08. 

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Where is the Growth? – Try Industrial Gas

Looking through a number of earnings releases and transcripts this week and listening to several of the calls, the overwhelming factor that grabs our attention is the total lack of any expectation of industrial growth anywhere in the world in

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Panera (PNRA) – Q2 Results and the Broader Group

Last week, we suggested that we were having a tough time finding value in the restaurant group given what we saw as an unappealing combination of “full” multiples across the sector and aggressive revenue and EPS expectations. We also suggested

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McDonald’s (MCD) and Inflation

While commenting on quarterly results is something that we, as a firm, don’t do a heck of a lot of, we see value in highlighting data points from the various releases that are interesting and relevant to our broader thematic

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Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market

Gross of subsidies, and controlling for medical cost inflation, 2014 individual premiums for the cheapest plan option in the California market are substantially (average 63%) higher than for the cheapest option in the current market. We believe much of the

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Aluminum – NYT Article; Interesting but Perhaps Missing a Key Point or Two

The NY Times’ interesting expose on the Aluminum “Middle Men” and how much money they make by simply holding inventory and moving it around, illustrates a couple of things.  It shows how an exchange can be misused, relative to its

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate

 We expect 3.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q13, the product of 1.6% growth in unit demand, and 1.4% price growth. Unit demand growth remains very slow; the projected 1.6% rate is essentially equal tothe inherent

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DuPont – A Reminder of the Opportunity

The July 17th movement in DD was driven by a disclosure that activist investor Nelson Peltz was building a stake in the company.  In our research on DD earlier in the year, we highlighted a general discount in the stock

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