Category Archive for "Published"

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Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard

HHS OIG* on August 30 published a survey of the benchmarks states use to determine ingredient-cost reimbursement for Medicaid prescriptions. Of the 43 states identifying their benchmarks, 30 are using the newer Average Acquisition Cost (AAC) reference; only 11 are

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MOS Trims Expectations as Near Term Weakness Abounds

This morning, in conjunction with a sell-side conference, MOS updated its outlook for the balance of ’13, taking the opportunity to overlay what are clearly very weak industry fundamentals (both potash and phosphates) near-term with a re-affirmation of the company’s

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HUN/ROC Consolidation in Part In Response to China – The First of Many?

We have written recently about the need for developed market producers of many different commodity products to take pro-active steps to address the significant build up of capacity in China.  Today we see such a move from Huntsman and Rockwood,

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China Part 2: A Rational China? It Depends on Where You are Standing

In a recent interview with the China Daily, the CEO of Alcoa talked about the unprofitable nature of almost half of the China based Aluminum producers.  We have no doubt that this is at least approximately accurate if not exact. 

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SSR Health’s Hidden Pipeline Analysis: Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines

We believe pre-phase III (i.e. ‘hidden’) pipelines are misvalued for a very simple reason: they’re hidden. However because companies’ patenting behaviors around early projects are relatively consistent and complete, careful analysis of patent data gives us an opportunity to see

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September 9, 2013 – Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud

After years of false starts, mobile payments are finally beginning to surmount the vested and conflicting interests of device platforms, wireless operators, and existing payments players to gain traction with merchants and consumers. These initiatives focus on the point of

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Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best

In 8 of the 10 states for which we have useful data, today’s (2013) premiums for individual coverage are (after being inflated by 6 pct to account for 2013 – ’14 health cost growth) very much on par with 2014

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September 3, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: Walking the Topline

 Sell side analysts love to back end load estimates for the companies that they favor, pushing sales acceleration and margin expansion into the back half or even into the next fiscal year. As we approach 3Q earnings, we thought it

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate

[print_me] We expect 3.9% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 3Q13, the product of 2.4% growth in unit demand, and 1.5% price growth. Unit demand growth moved to 2.1% during 2Q13 – a sequential improvement of 60

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Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk

Enrollment in Medicaid HMOs will grow immediately in 2014 as some states expand Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Growth continues for some time thereafter as: 1) other states join the expansion; 2) an increasing percentage of Medicaid

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