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COF: Capital Generation and Digital Opportunity in Payments Can Drive 25% Upside

We expect COF to generate 2015 EPS of $7.70 (20 cents above consensus) as the payout ratio rises to ~80% corresponding to a 2015 buyback amount of $2.5 billion and reducing the average share count by 3-4%; even with this

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Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014

In the market for individually purchased coverage, the same amount of insurance (defined as a constant deductible and/or out-of-pocket maximum) costs substantially more in 2014 than in 2013. At average 2013 deductibles, the cost increase is 81 pct for a

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates

We expect 3.3% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 4Q13, the product of 2.1% growth in unit demand, and 1.1% price growth. The 2.2% unit growth forecast would be a 20bp improvement over actual 3Q13 growth of

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November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

We believe that TMT is in the midst of a once-in-a-generation sea-change paradigm shift, driven by mobile platforms, cloud computing, and wireless broadband. The last such shift, catalyzed in the ‘80’s by PCs, cell phones, and telephone/cable deregulation, drove waves

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NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced

NVS’ economic returns to R&D spending (yr10 operating income / yr1 R&D) are on par with peers, after recovering over the last decade. This appears to be more a consequence of cost cuts outside the R&D organization than of efficiency

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EPA and Ethanol in ‘14

On Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its 2014 renewable fuel standard proposal that attempts to ensure “the continued growth of renewable fuels while recognizing the practical limits on ethanol blending, call the ethanol ‘blend wall’”.  The total renewable

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ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent

HealthCare.gov will be fixed, and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) will survive the associated political turmoil (amplified by policy cancellations) without immediate major modifications. These temporary problems ultimately are irrelevant         Since the ACA was passed, the

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Barclays: 2016 ROE Target Achievable Given Competitive Strength of Investment Bank

Half of Barclay’s risk-weighted assets (RWA) are in businesses which do not meet the cost-of-equity (COE, estimated by management at 11.5%). We expect improving returns at the investment bank, together with a mix-shift in the portfolio so that RWA are

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Barclays: Swaps Compression/Central Clearing will reduce the Balance Sheet beyond Expectations

Derivatives compression (the restructuring of derivatives portfolios so that unwanted leverage exposure declines while target risk exposures remain within tolerance) will likely reduce industry notional amounts by over $60tn in 2013 (near 10% of the outstanding of ~$700tn – see

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DuPont – An Unusual Stake In the Ground

Yesterday DuPont’s Chair and CEO Ellen Kuhlman wrote a letter to shareholders.  In that letter she discussed the transformation of DuPont over the last decade and put the recent Performance Chemicals spin news into context as part of that transformation.

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