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Quick Thoughts – V/MA: It’s the Routing Rules that Matter

On Friday, Visa rallied near 5% on oral arguments in front of an appeals court where judges appeared to support the Fed’s debit interchange cap of 21-24 cents/transaction in possible conflict with a district court ruling of end-July that the

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Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note Through December 28, enrollment in states operating their own health insurance exchanges (HIEs) is roughly 2x (in terms of the percent of potential beneficiaries

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BAC: Room to Run as Rising Net Interest Margin Levers over Declining Expenses and Share Count

On the last earnings call, BAC guided to a tangible ROE of 14% “as we look out over three years” based on a 1% ROA and tangible equity/assets ratio “that’s just over 7%” (7.5% in the last quarter). In practice,

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Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note As compared to employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), health plans sold on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs): are (>3x) more likely to require that deductibles be

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Retail Sales in a Single Table

With December retail sales in the rear view mirror (+0.23% sequentially, ahead of expectations and +4.2% year over year, still below the ’13 average), we can take a look at how the year finished up by category. While there were

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BEAM Going Away

Earlier this morning, Suntory and BEAM announced that BEAM would be acquired by Suntory in an all cash transaction. BEAM shareholders will receive $83.50 in cash (versus a closing price of $66.97 on Friday) The transaction values BEAM at nearly

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Game of Loans: Impact of Credit Tie on Competitive Dynamics in US Debit

The relative outperformance of MA versus V since end-July, when a Federal District Court ruled in favor of dual-routing for signature debit, is hard to explain. It is likely predicated on a share shift in signature debit from V to

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Playing Catch Up

As we think about how to invest in the Industrials and Materials sector in 2014 we are proponents of the idea that the laggards will play catch-up.  We first wrote about this in November and have seen some success with

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MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note In response to the Wall Street Journal report that MRK is planning a major shift in its R&D approach, we compare MRK’s R&D productivity

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January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014

New Years is a time for predictions. Here are ten fairly controversial forecasts that we think are likely to be true for TMT in 2014, and that, if true, will make money for investors who play accordingly.

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