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Quick Thoughts: JPM – Cyclical Improvement in NIM and FICC will Lever over Flat-to-Down Expenses for a 2015 EPS Beat

JPM’s economic model is to sustain a tangible ROE of 15-16% despite lifting the CET1 ratio (to 10-10.5% from the current 9.6%) by levering higher net interest income over flat-to-down expenses (for a 55% efficiency ratio vs. 59% in 2013);

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And the Winner is…TSN’s Bankers?

In news that appears to put an end to the saga of Hillshire Farms (HSH), TSN has emerged as the “winning” bidder with a $63 per share offer. o   This implies a 15.7x multiple of EV to TTM EBITDA, rarefied

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The Shift from Signature Debit and Prospect for a Bank-Owned PIN Debit Network

The debit business in the US is unsustainable. Durbin-regulated banks are losing money on signature debit as the swipe fee has fallen to 24 cents/transaction (from a pre-Durbin 59 cents) vs. Fed estimates for fraud and processing costs at 30

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Large Pharma’s ‘Established’ & ‘Growth’ NEWCOs: A Solomonic Path to More Efficient R&D?

We divided the large cap pharmaceutical companies into ‘established’ and ‘growth’ NEWCOs; we then compared the combined value of the ‘established’ and ‘growth’ NEWCOs to the legacy parent companies, and found no compelling evidence to believe the combined NEWCO values

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June 9, 2014 – TMT: The Advertising Revolution Will NOT Be Televised

TMT: The Advertising Revolution Will NOT Be Televised Since the 2010 recovery, US TV ad spending, adjusted for Olympic/campaign bumps in 2010 and 2012, has been decelerating. The price of a primetime spot has steadily declined, offset by increasing the

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Impact of European Monetary Policy on Bank Margins in the US

European monetary policy matters to bank net interest margins in the US because the risk of disinflation has collapsed European bond yields (to 1.6% on the 10-year from 2.2% at end-2013) dragging down US Treasury yields (to 2.6% on the

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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Groundhog Day – PPC, HSH and TSN

Last week, we suggested that it was likely that PPC would remain engaged in its pursuit of HSH subsequent to TSN offering a $50 per share counter-bid for the company. Sure enough, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that PPC

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Apple vs. Banks in Mobile Payments: Update

The first media reports[1] appeared today of Apple’s discussions with retailers around a mobile payments system where payments are integrated into a premium shopping experience relying on wireless communication between iPhones and iBeacons (as piloted already in a few Apple

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Quick Thoughts – HSH, TSN and PPC (Second Verse, Same as the First?)

This morning, TSN announced a proposal to acquire HSH for $50 per share in an all cash deal, effectively trumping PPC’s $45 per share offer that likely hadn’t even had time to cool off it was so fresh out of

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