Published Research

Home » Published Research

Tech / Media / Telecom

Utilities / Renewable Energy / Power Equipment

Healthcare

Tech / Media / Telecom

January 24, 2022

Quick Thoughts: 4Q21 Earnings – Mega-caps Incoming

January 19, 2022

Quick Thoughts: 4Q21 Earnings – A Big Deal to Start Things Off

January 14, 2022

Mixed Reality: The Future is Farther Away than it Appears

January 3, 2022

Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2022

December 17, 2021

Portfolio Update: Pandemic to Endemic

December 7, 2021

Quick Thoughts: Team Jack vs. Team Zuck

December 1, 2021

Web3: Vision vs. Reality

November 16, 2021

The Metaverse Archipelago: A Quest for the Holy Grail

November 8, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 3Q21 Earnings – Looking for the New Normal

November 1, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 3Q21 Earnings – What We Learned So Far

October 29, 2021

Quick Thoughts: Pursuing the Metaverse

October 25, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 3Q21 Earnings – It’s Mega-cap Week!

October 20, 2021

SaaS: They Can’t ALL Win

October 1, 2021

Alphabet: Optionality Everywhere

September 17, 2021

Portfolio Update: Chip Shortages Usually Lead to Chip Gluts

September 8, 2021

E-commerce: Digital Natives and Arms Dealers Win the “OmniChannel” Future

August 17, 2021

Amazon: Bigger and Better than You Think

August 9, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 2Q21 – The Theses Play On

August 2, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 2Q21 – What Did the Big Dogs Tell Us?

July 26, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 2Q21 Earnings Season Gets Started

July 19, 2021

Quick Thoughts: What Should Jamie Do?

July 13, 2021

Digital Payments: The Pandemic Accelerated the Paradigm Shift

June 29, 2021

Portfolio Update: Premature Rotation – Keeping the Faith on Paradigm Change

June 21, 2021

Quick Thoughts: Lawmakers Go After Big Tech

June 15, 2021

Future TV: The Living Room is a Mess!

May 27, 2021

Digital Ads: AAPL’s Tracking Ban Doesn’t Spoil the Party

May 17, 2021

Autonomous Delivery: Robo-vans, Sidewalk Bots, and Drones

May 10, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 1Q21 Earnings – The Horror!

May 3, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 1Q21 Earnings – Interesting Times

April 26, 2021

Quick Thoughts: Here Come the Megacaps

April 19, 2021

Quick Thoughts: The YoY Compare is Not THAT Difficult

April 15, 2021

E-Commerce: Post-pandemic shopping – Personal, Social, and Immediate

March 29, 2021

Portfolio Update: Premature Rotation – Keeping the Faith on Paradigm Change

March 22, 2021

Fintech: A New Banking Paradigm is Coming

March 10, 2021

Paradigmatic Change: The Next 20 Years in TMT

February 25, 2021

EV and ADAS Components: The Road to the Future has Potholes Along the Way

February 22, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 4Q20 Earnings in the Home Stretch

February 8, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 4Q20 Earnings Week Three

February 5, 2021

Autonomous Cars: Waymo vs. Tesla

February 1, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 4Q20 Earnings Week Two

January 25, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 4Q20 Earnings Week One

January 19, 2021

Quick Thoughts: 4Q20 Preview – The Beat Goes On

January 15, 2021

Quick Thoughts: The War Over Words

January 14, 2021

Digital Advertising: There is No Normal to Go Back To

January 4, 2021

Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2021

December 23, 2020

Quick Thoughts: The Apple Car – Will They, or Won’t They?

December 18, 2020

Portfolio Update: IPO Tap is Wide Open

December 14, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Going to the Movies Will Never Be the Same

December 9, 2020

E-Banking: What’s in Your Digital Wallet?

November 16, 2020

Streaming Video: The Revolution Will Be Streamed

November 9, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 3Q20 Earnings – OK, Smartphones are Having a Moment

November 2, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 3Q20 Earnings – It’s NOT About the Results

October 27, 2020

Ed-Tech: No More Pencils, No More Books!

October 26, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 3Q20 Earnings – The Big Dogs are Coming

October 18, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 3Q20 Earnings – More of the Same

October 8, 2020

The Future of Semis: After Moore’s Law

September 23, 2020

E-Healthcare: Paging Doctor Bezos…

September 10, 2020

Portfolio Update: Some More E-Commerce in Our Cart

September 1, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 2Q20 Earnings – The Stragglers

September 1, 2020

AAPL and Epic: Tower Defense vs. Battle Royale

August 17, 2020

Internet Architecture: The Problem is Latency, NOT Connection Speed

August 10, 2020

Quick Thoughts: What Pandemic? Bizarro Wall Street

August 3, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings – The Epic Tech Run Continues

August 3, 2020

The Future of Video: The Cable Era Gives Way to Streaming Dominance

July 27, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings – A Big Week After the INTC Bombshell

July 20, 2020

Quick Thoughts: A Skittish Market Awaits Big Tech 2Q Earnings

July 14, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings Will Show the Winners and the Losers

July 14, 2020

Smartphones: They Picked the Wrong Year to Call for a Super-cycle

July 1, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Wither Self-driving Robo-taxis

June 29, 2020

Digital Advertising: TV Goes the Way of the Newspaper

June 15, 2020

Portfolio Update: Buying the Wheat, Selling the Chaff

June 8, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Breaking Up GAFA

June 3, 2020

TMT in the Pandemic: The Separation of Winners and Losers

June 1, 2020

Quick Thoughts: April Quarter Earnings Add Color to the Story

May 18, 2020

SaaS: Opportunities and Obstacles – Who Wins?

May 11, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 1Q Earnings – The Picture Gets Clearer

May 5, 2020

5G: The Heat is Off

May 4, 2020

Quick Thoughts: 1Q Earnings – Bring on the Megacaps

April 27, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Finally a Glimpse of What’s Going On

April 27, 2020

E-Commerce in the Time of COVID-19

April 14, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Great Companies But…

April 13, 2020

Post-Pandemic Media: More Screen-time For Everyone

April 6, 2020

Working at Home: Technology of Necessity Will Become Permanent

March 31, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Stock Picking is Coming Back!

March 23, 2020

Portfolio Update: The Megacaps and the Pandemic

March 18, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Waiting for the Bottom

March 10, 2020

Quick Thoughts: What to Do When it’s Safe to Go Back in the Water

March 2, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Last Week this Morning – No Rest for TMT Investors

February 18, 2020

Quick Thoughts: The End of 4Q TMT Earnings – What did We Learn?

February 18, 2020

Smart Homes: Are We There Yet?

February 12, 2020

Quick Thoughts: TMUS/S – Finally!

February 10, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Earnings – What Have We Learned So Far?

February 3, 2020

Quick Thoughts: What Happened and What Do We Expect?

February 3, 2020

Quick Thoughts: IBM – Rerating After Rometty

January 27, 2020

Quick Thoughts: The Week That Was and the Days Ahead

January 24, 2020

After Smartphones: Hold the Metaverse, the Cloud Assistant Era is Coming

January 9, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Who Will Buy?

January 3, 2020

Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2020

December 9, 2019

Portfolio Update: 2019 Research Review – So Far, So Good

November 26, 2019

Quick Thoughts: Is Cloud Gaming the 5G Killer App?

November 21, 2019

Quick Thoughts: The Long Road to AR Glasses

November 14, 2019

Game Streaming: Not Everyone Can Win

October 28, 2019

Quick Thoughts: GOOGL/FIT Makes a Lot of Sense

October 24, 2019

Quick Thoughts: DIS and VZ Sitting in a Tree …

October 18, 2019

Smartphones: The Market is Mature – Now What?

October 1, 2019

Portfolio Update: Cyclical Semis and Merchant Acquirers – Will They Have Legs?

September 17, 2019

Cybersecurity: Dumb Users and State-sponsored Cyberweapons

August 23, 2019

5G: Why TMUS Will Win

August 5, 2019

Digital Payments: Revolution at the Register

July 17, 2019

Quick Thoughts: 2Q Odds and Ends

July 14, 2019

Digital Consumer Banking: What Will GAFA Do?

June 16, 2019

Quick Thoughts: Breaking Up the Tech Giants? Don’t Bet On It!

June 11, 2019

Portfolio Update: Highlighting Execution, Regulatory and Valuation Risks

May 23, 2019

The 3 Phases of 5G: Coverage, Density, and Applications

May 6, 2019

Quick Thoughts: UBER is Better Than Lyft – So What

April 25, 2019

Semiconductor Forecasts: Too Bullish on Smartphones, Too Bearish on the Cloud

April 16, 2019

Quick Thoughts: QCOM and AAPL Bury the Hatchet on the First Day of Trial

April 8, 2019

LYFT and UBER: Welcoming the New Robo-Cab Overlords

March 24, 2019

ADAS: The Near-Term Opportunity for Components

March 11, 2019

Quick Thoughts: NVDA bets heavy on its datacenter ambitions

March 4, 2019

Model Portfolio Update: What is Value in Tech?

February 21, 2019

Hybrid Cloud Platforms: Herding Cats and Dogs Together – Efficiently and Securely

January 28, 2019

Quick Thoughts: NVDA – An Inventory Glut, A China Trade War, and a Cloud CAPEX Intermission Walk into a Bar …

January 24, 2019

SaaS: Handicapping the Unicorn Races

January 3, 2019

Quick Thoughts: AAPL – The Aftermath

January 2, 2019

Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2019

December 6, 2018

Model Portfolio: Is It Safe?

November 18, 2018

Cloud Software: A Long Journey with Three Layers

November 15, 2018

Quick Thoughts: NVDA – The Aftermath

November 5, 2018

Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Pay No Attention to the Unit Sales Behind the Curtain!

October 29, 2018

E-Commerce: The Long and Winding Runway

October 29, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Big Blue Puts on a Red Hat

September 17, 2018

Digital Advertising: The Runway is a LOT Longer than it Looks

September 12, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Another September iPhone Launch

August 24, 2018

The TMT Model Portfolio: 15 Well Positioned Stocks and a few more

August 13, 2018

The End of TV: Media Strains to Adapt to the Streaming ERa

July 20, 2018

Banks, Payments and Blockchain: Right Idea, Wrong Tool

July 11, 2018

Quick Thoughts: The Future of Shopping

June 27, 2018

AI Risk Management: Catalyzing Banking’s Move to the Cloud

June 12, 2018

AI Assistants: The New UI Paradigm that will End the OS/App Era

June 4, 2018

Quick Thoughts: This Week in Robocabs

May 30, 2018

15 Stock TMT Model Portfolio: Winning Enterprise Cloud and Betting on Self-Service Analytics

May 24, 2018

AI, Blockchain and the Cloud: Banks in the New Technology Era

May 1, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Things I Think About the TMUS-S Merger

April 27, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Things I Think About Google

April 23, 2018

NVDA: AI Upside Greatly Outweighs Crypto Risks

April 10, 2018

FB: Recovery? Yes … But Then What?

March 29, 2018

Self-Driving Cars: Waymo and GM are FAR ahead of Uber…And Everyone Else

March 19, 2018

Quick Thoughts: QCOM – Now What?

March 8, 2018

Commercial Blockchain: Objects May Be Further Away Than They Appear

February 26, 2018

15 Stock TMT Model Portfolio: Removing QCOM, TMUS and Adding ZEN, ACN

February 20, 2018

Quick Thoughts: A Social Media Pair Trade – Long TWTR, Short SNAP

February 9, 2018

Quick Thoughts: AAPL -There is No iPhone Supercycle. Now What?

February 6, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Broadcom’s Fascination with Qualcomm Continues

February 5, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Waymo Gets Way More

January 31, 2018

Quick Thoughts: A Possible Kickstart for Disruptive Healthcare AI

January 25, 2018

Healthcare AI: Taking a Long Road One Pain Point at a Time

January 8, 2018

Quick Thoughts: Security Concerns Demand Processor Diversity

January 2, 2018

Ten Investible Things that We Think Will Happen in 2018

December 13, 2017

GOOGL: Waymo is worth $75B+ Right Now

December 3, 2017

TMT Model Portfolio Update: Tempering Volatility

November 16, 2017

Hyperscale Semiconductors: Processor Diversity Coming to The Cloud

Utilities / Renewable Energy / Power Equipment

January 24, 2022

Transmission Growth Offers Exposure to Renewable Expansion and Reliability Investments: Why EVRG, FE, OGE, PNM and XEL Are Well Positioned

January 18, 2022

For the Clean Energy Transition to Succeed, Transmission Must Grow Rapidly: Which Utilities Are Best Positioned to Benefit?

January 3, 2022

Higher Distribution and Renewable Capex Drives 7.5% Electric Rate Base Growth over 2020-2025, Led by CNP, D, DTE, NEE, PCG, WEC, AEE and PNM

December 23, 2021

Which Utilities’ Customers Pay the Highest Share of Income on Utility Bills and Face the Highest Bill Increases? An Assessment of the Potential Regulatory Headwinds to Growth

November 29, 2021

At What Price Can Batteries Compete with Gas Turbines As a Source of Capacity on the Grid?

November 15, 2021

The Clean Energy Transition: A Primer for PMs, Part 3: Can Batteries Provide the Capacity That the Grid Needs?

October 27, 2021

Which Utilities Are Most Vulnerable to Energy Cost Increases?

October 21, 2021

For Which Utilities Does Inflation Pose the Greatest Risk?

October 14, 2021

Why Utility Valuations Are Uniquely Vulnerable to Accelerating Inflation

September 27, 2021

How Much Will Customers Pay for Utilities’ 7.2% Average Rate Base Growth?

September 20, 2021

As Fossil Fuel Generators Are Retired, Utilities Can Cut CO2 Emissions — But at Enormous Cost

September 1, 2021

The Clean Energy Transition: A Primer for PMs Part 2 – The Rising Cost of Renewable Power

August 12, 2021

The Clean Energy Transition: A Primer for PMs Part 1 – The Centrality of the Power Sector

July 26, 2021

Why Asia Will Slow the Global Transition to Clean Energy: A Regional Analysis of the Trajectory to Net Zero Emissions

July 15, 2021

Retiring and Replacing Fossil Fuel Generating Fleets: ETR, OGE, DTE, EVRG, ALE, AEP and PPL Face Large Growth Opportunities with Commensurate Regulatory Risks

July 7, 2021

Which Utilities Combine Value, Growth & High Returns? Our Matrix of Valuation, Rate Base Growth and ROE Favors CNP; ALE and HE Look Expensive

June 28, 2021

Utilities’ Announced Capex Plans Portend Decelerating Rate Base Growth; Is This the Floor or Are Further Declines Ahead?

June 7, 2021

The Looming Crisis in Generation Capacity

May 24, 2021

With Inflation Threatening, Which Utilities’ Earnings Could Be Most Vulnerable to Inflation, and Which Should Be Most Resilient?

May 10, 2021

The Sale of Regulated Utilities Is Becoming a Source of Capital to Fund the Clean Energy Transition

April 29, 2021

Senator Wyden’s Bill Reveals Key Elements of the Democrats’ Clean Energy Policy And Would Make PTCs the Subsidy of Choice for Solar

April 21, 2021

Which Gas Local Distribution Companies Release the Most Methane?

April 12, 2021

What Will It Cost to Replace Coal-Fired Power Plants with Renewables? And Which Utilities Are Most at Risk?

March 30, 2021

A Perfect Storm: How Decarbonization, Electrification, Climate Change And Outdated Modeling Are Undermining the Reliability of the Grid

March 18, 2021

Coal Dependency: How Much Does Each Electric Utility Rely on Coal for Capacity, Generation – and Earnings

March 10, 2021

Ranking the World’s Largest Utilities on CO2 Emissions Rates and Assessing Their Exposure to Carbon Regulation

March 2, 2021

Policy and Operational Failures Caused the Texas Blackout; Generators and Retailers, Such as VST, NRG and JE, Are at Severe Risk Until These Failures Are Corrected

February 8, 2021

Presentation to the NARUC Winter Policy Summit: Global Power Demand, Utility Capex and Retail Rates: Where Do They Go from Here?

February 3, 2021

When Will Power Demand Recover Its Pre-Pandemic Level & What Will Be the Shortfall Relative to Prior Trend Growth? The Forecast Is Improving

January 20, 2021

Utilities’ CO2 Reduction Targets Will Power Rate Base Growth, But What Will They Cost Ratepayers?

January 5, 2021

Surprise! Customer Growth and Regulatory Support Really Do Drive Long-Term Utility Growth. Which Utilities Have the Best Framework for Growth?

December 15, 2020

U.S. Electric Utilities Plan to Cut CO2 Emissions by a Third by 2030: We Rank Them on Emissions Cuts, Required Capex and Potential Rate Base Growth

December 2, 2020

Quick Thoughts: As the Relationship Between Utility Growth and Valuations Strengthens, Out of Favor Names Should Benefit – FE, ALE, OGE, EIX

November 24, 2020

CO2 Reduction Targets Will Power Growth in Electric Rate Base through 2030 – ETR, WEC, D, PNW, XEL and PNM Have the Largest Opportunity

October 28, 2020

Quick Thoughts: Election Hangover for Renewables? And DTE Spin Puts Pressure on CNP and OGE to Sell Enable

October 19, 2020

Can Utilities Recover the Costs of Rate Base Growth? Which Are Most at Risk of Regulator Pushback?

October 5, 2020

At Which Utilities Will Rate Base Growth Hit a Barrier in Rising Customer Bills?

October 1, 2020

Quick Thoughts – NEE’s Bid for DUK Is Evidence of NEE’s Need for an Acquisition and DUK’s Undervaluation, but Also Highlights ETR and D as Other Potential Targets and Attractive Investments

September 23, 2020

Strong Rate Base Growth Points to Continued Rapid Earnings Growth for Electric Utilities; Our Matrix of Valuation, Rate Base Growth and ROE Favors FE, EXC and CNP; LNT, IDA and HE Look Expensive

August 31, 2020

Is the Growth of Solar Ruining the Economics of Solar?

August 19, 2020

State Unemployment Rates Range from 4.3% to 17.4%: With Unemployment Benefits Cut, Which Utilities Are Most at Risk of Rising Bad Debt Expense?

August 13, 2020

Quick Thoughts on Divestitures: Not All Divestitures Are Equal – PEG Is Positive, D is Marginal, and PPL Could Go Either Way, But CNP Would Be Best

August 10, 2020

Quick Thoughts on EVRG: New Strategic Plan Not Enough to Drive Outperformance

August 5, 2020

Defensive Sectors Are Crushed by Coronavirus, as Internet Stocks Charge Ahead: Is This a Permanent Shift for Utilities, & What Are the Implications for Portfolio Managers?

July 26, 2020

North American and European Power Demand Will Take Years to Recover 2019 Levels

July 15, 2020

A Severe Recession Implies Unprecedented Regulatory Risks & Opportunities: Which Utilities Are Best and Worst Positioned?

June 29, 2020

Which Utilities Face the Most Aggressive Regulators? And Which Have the Most Supportive?

June 22, 2020

By How Much Do Commissions Cut Utilities’ Rate Case Requests? A Look at Which States are Most and Least Generous in Rate Cases

June 17, 2020

Utilities on the Defensive: In the Shadow of COVID, What New Challenges Face the Industry?

June 1, 2020

Why California’s Rising Solar Curtailment Will Leave Solar Project Owners Unscathed

May 25, 2020

A Fork in the Road: How Have the Pandemic and Recession Changed Utilities’ Relative Valuations?

May 18, 2020

Steel for PPAs: How Large Is the Renewable Energy Opportunity And for Which Utilities Is It Biggest?

May 11, 2020

With 15% Unemployment, Will Utilities Be Able to Collect Their Bills?

April 20, 2020

Resilient Residential Sales and Robust Residential Gross Margins Should Protect Utility Profits Through the Lockdown

April 8, 2020

What Would 30% 2Q GDP Decline Imply for Utility Revenues? And Could Utility Revenues Actually Increase?

March 31, 2020

How Far Will COVID-19 Depress Power Demand? Or, No More Manic Mondays

March 22, 2020

Are Utilities Still Defensive? COVID-19 Will Curtail Electricity Demand in Unprecedented Ways

March 17, 2020

Disease, Recession and ROEs: What Are the Hidden Risks for Utilities and Which Are Most Vulnerable?

March 9, 2020

Analysts with Rulers 2: If Rate Base Growth Fails to Meet Expectations, Which Utility Stocks Will Be Most and Least Affected?

March 2, 2020

Portfolio Inoculation: Why Utilities Should Outperform in a Coronavirus Pandemic

February 19, 2020

Rising Solar Curtailments in California Are Eroding Project Cash Flows and Valuations; Existing Project Owners Are at Risk, And New Project Pricing Will Increase Sharply

February 3, 2020

Analysts with Rulers: Straight-Line Forecasts Drive Utility Valuations; Which Stocks Are Going to Throw Investors a Curve?

January 16, 2020

Utilities Plan to Increase Distribution Capex by Almost 50% over the Next Three Years; What Are the Drivers and Can They Continue?

December 19, 2019

Gas-Fired Generation in a Renewable World: The Example of California as a Real World Laboratory

December 16, 2019

Which Utilities Are Most Sensitive to the Economy? Utilities to Hold in an Industrial Recovery

November 24, 2019

How Important Are Interest Rates to Utility Valuations? Less Than They Used to Be

October 29, 2019

State Renewable Portfolio Standards vs. Steel for Fuel: Which is More Important for Utilities?

October 10, 2019

Why PG&E Can Still Control Its Destiny and the Creditors Plan Won’t Win

October 6, 2019

NEE Needs to Make an Acquisition – Which Utility is the Best Fit?

October 1, 2019

Steel for Fuel: How Large Is the Renewable Energy Opportunity And for Which Utilities Is It Biggest?

September 10, 2019

Falling Interest Rates and ROEs: A Friendly Regulatory Lag, With Benefits

September 10, 2019

The Long and Winding Road: How Much Will PG&E Be Worth When It Exits Bankruptcy?

September 2, 2019

Expanding Rate Base Without Raising Customer Bills; Which Utilities Have Done It and Which Can Do It Over the Next Five Years?

August 5, 2019

Will Accelerating Rate Base Growth Hit a Barrier in Rising Customer Bills? Not Yet, But Challenges are Growing for Some Utilities

July 9, 2019

Accelerating Capex Drives Faster Utility Rate Base Growth Well into the Next Decade:Our Updated Rate Base, ROE and Valuation Matrix Favors FE, AEP, AGR & PEG

June 24, 2019

EIX, PCG, SRE: Gov. Newsom’s Wildfire Fund Highly Positive for All California Utilities

June 18, 2019

The Cost to Achieve 100% Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Texas and California

May 28, 2019

Potential Momentum Plays and Inflection Points in ROE and Rate Base Growth

May 7, 2019

Exploding Duck Curve 2: Renewables Don’t Raise Power Costs – If Penetration Remains Below 80%

April 24, 2019

EIX, PCG, SRE: How California’s Cost of Capital Proceeding Will Materially Mitigate Wildfire Risk

April 22, 2019

PG&E – We See Equity Value of $54 in Our Base Case, $63 Upside, $26 Downside As Potential Post-Bankruptcy Outcomes Skew Further to the Upside

April 17, 2019

Entergy: The Most Attractive Fully Regulated Utility (outside of California) After Agreement to Sell Final Merchant Nuclear Power Plant

April 11, 2019

Exploding Duck Curve: What Does It Cost to Achieve 100% Renewable Electricity and What Are the Implications?

February 28, 2019

PCG, EIX, SRE: Why California Will Engage with the State’s Utilities to Contain Wildfire Risk & Restore Utility Credit

February 11, 2019

PG&E: Valued Across a Range of Scenarios, We See Significant Upside & Little Downside; Insights from Simple and Complex Valuation Models

January 14, 2019

PG&E’s Bankruptcy Creates Value by Consolidating Damage Claims in a Single Proceeding and Facilitating the Sale of Its Component Business

January 11, 2019

GE, SIE, MHVYF: A Primer on How the Power Market Shapes the Market for Gas Turbines, Part 2 – Which Technologies Will Utilities Choose?

December 11, 2018

Would Splitting PG&E Create Value for Shareholders? Why Municipalization Might Make Sense

December 3, 2018

Are PCG & EIX Still Hot Stocks? We Assess the Risk of Repeated Catastrophic Wildfires & Its Implications for Valuation; Maintain PCG & EIX on Our List of Preferred Utilities

November 15, 2018

GE, SIE, MHVYF: A Primer on How the Power Market Shapes the Market for Gas Turbines – Historical Developments & Their Implications for the Future

October 17, 2018

Portfolio Update: We Are Dropping NEE from Our Preferred List & Adding IDA to Our Concerns List

October 3, 2018

Will Rising Customer Bills Constrain Utilities’ Rate Base Growth?

September 21, 2018

Utilities Offer Robust Growth, High Yields, Low Betas and Compelling Risk-Adjusted Returns; Rate Base Growth Accelerates on Surge in Planned Capex and Tax Reform

September 6, 2018

Which Utilities Are Best Positioned for Rate Base Growth? How the Cost Structure of Utilities Can Benefit or Constrain Growth in Rate Base

August 29, 2018

California’s Senate Bill 901 Could Materially Reduce Shareholder Exposure to Wildfire Risk, but 2017 Exposure for PCG is All About the Cap

August 16, 2018

Utilities’ Operating Costs Are Rising: Which Can Control Costs Best and Which Are Most at Risk?

July 31, 2018

The Challenge of Limiting Rate Increases in the Face of Rate Base Growth and Rising Costs: An Analysis of Capex, Opex and Their Impact on Customer Costs

July 16, 2018

FERC’s Proposed Restructuring of PJM’s Capacity Market Could Cut Capacity Revenues for Both Subsidized and Unsubsidized Generators

July 2, 2018

Batteries & Solar: The Cheapest Capacity and Peak Energy Resource Available

June 19, 2018

GE, SIE, MHVYF: The Impending Recovery in Gas Turbine Orders

June 12, 2018

PCG and EIX Remain Compelling Investments Given the Legal and Financial Implications of the Cal Fire Reports

May 21, 2018

Half of U.S. Generating Capacity Will Retire by 2040: What Is the Impact on Power Supply, Power Markets, Coal Burn and Rail Volumes?

May 10, 2018

The Impending Recovery in the Market for Power Generation Equipment: A Global Perspective

April 30, 2018

California Wildfire Liability Legal Update: Why Inverse Condemnation is Unlikely to be Overturned by the Courts

April 19, 2018

The Next Wave of Rate Base Growth – Half of U.S. Generating Capacity Will Retire by 2040: Who Wins and Who Loses?

April 3, 2018

Utility Portfolio Update: Adding ETR to Our List of Preferred Utilities; FE, EIX and PCG Remain Our Favorite Names in the Sector, While SO Remains a Concern

March 26, 2018

As Trade Wars Loom, Utilities Combine Attractive Expected Returns, Historically Low Betas and Limited Exposure to International Markets

February 27, 2018

Tracking Global Power Sector Capex: What Are the Global, Regional and Sectoral Trends?

February 14, 2018

Power Demand Growth: What Does International Power Demand Growth Tells Us About the Outlook for the U.S. Power Sector?

February 5, 2018

Can Grid Scale Energy Storage Compete with Gas Fired Peakers? Not Yet, But Coming Soon

January 24, 2018

Wildfires and Mudslides and Lawsuits, Oh My! Adding EIX To Our List of Preferred Utilities

January 18, 2018

Section 201: Solar Tariff Determination Coming on January 26 – What Will Be the Impact?

January 16, 2018

Final Analysis of Tax Reform Shows Substantial Boost to Utilities’ Rate Base Growth: By 2019, Rate Base Will Be 6 to 10% Higher at LNT, XEL, AGR, and PCG

January 4, 2018

Dominion Energy/SCANA: A Better Deal for Dominion Than the Market Has Discerned, But Unlikely to Close Because Ratepayers Can Get So Much More

Healthcare

December 20, 2021

3Q21 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

September 21, 2021

2Q21 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

June 21, 2021

1Q21 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

March 22, 2021

4Q20 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

December 9, 2020

3Q20 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

September 8, 2020

2Q20 List and net price trends for US Rx brands

June 1, 2020

1Q20 list and net price trends for US Rx brands

April 15, 2020

The Year in Pricing: US Rx Net Price Effects of COVID-19, Co-Pay Maximizers, and More

March 19, 2020

4Q19 list and net price trends for US Rx brands

December 5, 2019

3Q19 list and net price trends for US Rx brands

October 10, 2019

Recasting Ways & Means Analysis of US v. International prices, using net US prices

September 26, 2019

The House Rx Pricing Bill. You Call This Negotiating?

September 11, 2019

US Rx Brand Net Prices Fell 5.8 Percent in 2Q19

August 6, 2019

The Prescription Drug Pricing Reduction Act (PDPRA)

May 30, 2019

US Brand Rx net prices fall 4.1 percent in 1Q19; politics further decelerate list pricing gains…

May 2, 2019

What would Medicare for All mean for hospitals? That depends on each hospital’s payor mix

April 24, 2019

Medicare for All: Why it Can’t Happen … Yet

March 18, 2019

US Rx net prices fall 4.8 percent y/y in 4Q18; 2019 net price declines may worsen with expansion of co-pay accumulator programs

February 18, 2019

AMGN/MDCO/REGN/SNY: PCSK9 Pricing Update

February 6, 2019

Rebate safe harbor proposed rule – Impact limited to Medicare and Medicaid MCOs; Commercial Rx sales likely unaffected

December 17, 2018

Overturned in the Northern District of Texas, the ACA Heads to the 5th Circuit, and Perhaps to SCOTUS

December 12, 2018

US Rx Net Prices Fall 5.1 percent (real) in 3Q18

November 19, 2018

AMZN & OMI: Two Birds, One Stone?

July 19, 2018

AMZN v. Traditional Pharmacy (PBM, Drug Retail, Drug Wholesale) = Netflix v. Blockbuster. Here’s Why

June 4, 2018

U.S. Rx Brand Pricing Fell 5.6 percent (real) in 1Q18 – Blame Co-Pay Accumulators

May 15, 2018

The White House on Drug Pricing: “There’s a press event Friday, give me every idea you’ve got”

April 22, 2018

BMY, MRK, and 1st-line NSCLC: Estimating patient shares in the wake of Keynote-189 and Checkmate-227

April 17, 2018

Co-Pay Accumulators: Who’s Most at Risk (ABBV, GILD, UCBJY, ALIOY, AMGN); Manufacturers’ Options for Limiting Their Effect

April 2, 2018

WMT/HUM: Quick First Read Shows Little Compelling Benefit

March 28, 2018

US Rx brand real net pricing fell 1.1 percent in 4Q17; update and analysis of company outliers

March 20, 2018

AMGN/REGN/SNY: Top-line ODYSSEY results do not show a mortality benefit

February 26, 2018

BIVV/Roche/SHPG/NVO: Hemlibra global sales potential $3.0 – $5.2B; reduces global factor VIII demand by 25-55%, bypass agent demand by 90+%

February 8, 2018

BMY/MRK: Why CM227 is very good news for BMY, and not such bad news for MRK

February 5, 2018

NVO/LLY: Ozempic (semaglutide) resets the bar for glycemic efficacy; consensus GLP-1 expectations appear too low

January 30, 2018

AMZN, BRK.A/.B, and JPM Look Set to Fire (or at least seriously trim back the roles of) Their Healthcare Agents

January 15, 2018

Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View

Tech / Media / Telecom

Industrials & Materials

Utilities & Renewable Energy

Healthcare

Tech / Media / Telecom

June 19, 2015 – Mobile Payments: The TMT Perspective

June 9, 2015 – GOOG: A Particular Set of Skills

May 28, 2015 – TMT Model Portfolio Update: The Skeptics Guide

May 15, 2015 – SaaS Applications: [Subscription] Software is Eating the World!

May 5, 2015 – TMT: 1Q 2015 Earnings Rundown

April 28, 2015 – AAPL: iPhone 6 Upgrades Setting Up a Difficult Compare

April 20, 2015 – TMT: 1Q 2015 Earnings Preview

April 15, 2015 – Mobile Commerce: AAPL and GOOG Have Home Field Advantage

March 30, 2015 – QCOM: The Sun Comes After the Rain

March 12, 2015 – Digital Advertising: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Ad Platforms

March 10, 2015 – AAPL: High Priced, Cause it Feels So Nice

February 23, 2015 – TMT Model Portfolio Update: Escaping the Death Watch

February 10, 2015 – Net Neutrality: Reining in the Dumb Pipe Oligopoly

February 5, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: TWTR – BOOM! There’s MAUs in Them Thar Tweets

February 3, 2015 – Advertising: The “Golden Age” of TV Enters its Golden Years

January 29, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: AMZN and GOOG – Looking for Some Investor Love

January 28, 2015 – Quick Thought: FB and QCOM – Beat, Guide and Drop

January 28, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Awesome! Epic! When Should We Sell?

January 26, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Moving Quickly to the Cloud

January 21, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Mobile First, Cloud First, CHECK!

January 20, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: NFLX – What a Difference a Quarter Makes

January 14, 2015 – Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2015

December 22, 2014 – Net Neutrality: Treating the Symptoms Rather than the Disease

December 1, 2014 – Twitter: Black and Blue, but Read All Over

November 19, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Qualcomm Analyst Day – Hang On for a Bumpy Ride

November 13, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Twitter Stops the Bleeding

November 10, 2014 – SaaS Revisited: Still Growing After All These Months

November 5, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: QCOM – Little Trouble in Big China

October 30, 2014 – TMT: Portfolio Update – Dreams, Comebacks, Skeptics and the Death Watch Redux

October 29, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: FB 3Q14 – “A Significant Investment Year” or Zuckberg’s Bezos Envy

October 27, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: TWTR 3Q14 – It’s Always Something

October 23, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Not Your Father’s Microsoft

October 23, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: AMZN – OOPS! He Did it Again!

October 21, 2014 – Sensors: What’s in YOUR Smartphone?

October 20, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Surprise! AAPL beats! (actually, not a surprise)

October 16, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: GOOG – Moonshots are Expensive

October 15, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: NFLX – One Strike is Not an Out

October 6, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: HPQ – Another 180 Degree Turn, But Still No Strategic Direction

October 3, 2014 – Consumer Data: It’s Not Just What You Have, It’s Also Knowing What to Do With It.

September 30, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: eBay – OK Carl, Just Don’t Tell Us “I Told You So”

September 22, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple Watch – All About the Benjamins

September 17, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple’s growth is all about the iPhone

September 15, 2014 – Apple Pay: Friend (and Potential Foe) to the Payments Industry Status Quo

September 10, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: T-Mobile’s Uncarrior 7.0 Takes Aim at VZ/T’s Profits

September 9, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple – Go Big or Go Home

August 19, 2014 – Infrastructure as a Service: The Race Won’t Go All the Way to the Bottom

July 24, 2014 – TMT: Portfolio Update – Sooner, or Later?

July 10, 2014 – Apple and Google: On Your Wrist and In Your Car

June 22, 2014 – US Telecom: Merger Mania! Telecom Bankers Rejoice!

June 9, 2014 – TMT: The Advertising Revolution Will NOT Be Televised

May 21, 2014 – TMT: “Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast!”

May 8, 2014 – eBAY: Betting Big on the Future of Retail

April 15, 2014 – TMT: Don’t Rain on My IPO

March 26, 2014 – Facebook: Dream Until Your Dreams Come True

March 2, 2014 – SaaS: After the Levee Breaks – Competition in Software

February 6, 2014 – Google: King of the Kloud Krewe

January 22, 2014 – Apple: Is Apple the New Microsoft?

January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014

December 11, 2013 – TMT: The Good, the Bad and the MEH

November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

November 3, 2013 – Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky

October 23, 2013 – Twitter: There’s Gold in Them Thar Tweets

October 8, 2013 – Twitter: How Tweet it is!

October 1, 2013 – Smartphones Today: Looking High and Low

September 18, 2013 – Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators (AUDIO)

September 9, 2013 – Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud

September 3, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: Walking the Topline

August 1, 2013 – Mobile Devices: The PC-ification of the Smartphone

July 17, 2013: The War on TV Part IV: The Biggest Pipe Will NOT Win

July 2, 2013: The War on TV Part III – Reductio “Ad” Absurdum

June 19, 2013: The War on TV Part II – Streaming is Coming

June 12, 2013 – The War on TV: The Attack of the Boxes

May 21, 2013 – Data Center Spending: We Don’t Get Fooled Again!

May 1, 2013 – Qualcomm: Whadda We Gotta Do to Get Some Respect Around Here!

April 19, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: The IPOs are Coming! The IPOs are Coming!

April 2, 2013 – US Wireless Carriers: The Barbarians are at the Gate

March 13, 2013 – Mobile Semiconductors: In Search of the One Chip Solution

March 4, 2013 – TMT: In the Year 2020 – 8 Things We Think

February 14, 2013 – Microsoft: No More Mister Softy!

January 30, 2013 – Amazon: In Jeff Bezos We Trust

January 16, 2013 – Facebook: Stuck in the Friend Zone

January 8, 2013 – Small Cap TMT: Time to Stop Feeding the Bear

December 26, 2012 – Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price

December 4, 2012 – Google: The Biggest Hammer in a World Full of Nails

November 19, 2012 – Apple: Can a Leopard Change its Spots?

October 25, 2012 – Storage: All Roads Lead to the Cloud

October 3, 2012 – Wireless Carriers: Will the iPhone5 or New Spectrum Revive Carrier Competition?

September 11, 2012 – TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World

August 21, 2012 – Social Networking: The Millennial Application Moves Out of its Parents’ Basement

July 30, 2012 – Cloud Data Centers: Bigger, Faster, Cheaper!

July 12, 2012 – Online Video: Objects in the Mirror May be Closer than they Appear

July 2, 2012 – Portable Devices: Parts is Parts

June 12, 2012 – TMT Paradigm Shift! Which Side are You On?

May 29, 2012 – Video Advertising: The Incredible Disappearing Audience

May 15, 2012 – The Internet Revolution: It’s Not Social OR Mobile, It’s Apps

April 26, 2012 – Cheap Tech Redux: Sifting Through the Bargain Bin Again

April 2, 2012 – Telecom Carriers: Why Aren’t These Cyclicals Cycling?

March 15, 2012 – Television Networks: Betwixt and Between a World of Change

March 5, 2012 – 4Q11 Earnings Update: Plenty of Runway for Cloud Leaders

February 13, 2012 – The Future of Video Advertising: Three-screens, #hashtags, and Streams

January 31, 2012 – Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?

January 19, 2012 – Virtualization and the Cloud

January 9, 2012 – Enterprise IT: Send in the Clouds

December 16, 2011 – The Four Horsemen of the Internet

December 1, 2011 – TMT in 3Q11 – Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent

November 17, 2011 – The Open Source Software Threat

October 31, 2011 – Mobile Processors: Here, There, and Everywhere

October 13, 2011 – TMT M&A: Fat Wallets and Attractive Targets

September 19, 2011 – Patent Wars!

September 7, 2011 – TMT in 2Q11: Debt Crisis Aftermath Leaves Value Opportunities in Growth Themes

August 24, 2011 – Mobile Platforms: Integrating Everything

July 13, 2011 – Online Payments: Cut Up Your Credit Cards!

June 22, 2011 – Mobile Devices: Flying in the Clouds

June 7, 2011 – Cheap Tech: A Guide for Cautious Bottom Fishing

May 20, 2011 – Large Cap TMT: The Curse of Great Expectations – Launching a Model Portfolio

May 11, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: Time for a Three Month Check Up

April 21, 2011 – Internet Everything: The Coming War for the Consumer

April 13, 2011 – Energy IT: Green is Good

March 23, 2011 – Enterprise IT and the Cloud

March 9, 2011 – 4G: Faster, Cheaper, Better

February 24, 2011 – Mobile Advertising: Check In, Then, Check Out

February 8, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: The Idiosyncratic Method

January 24, 2011 – Storage:Disrupt This!

January 6, 2011 – Online TV: A Cycle Ride to The Tipping Point

December 22, 2010 – Net Neutrality: The FCC Takes Over the Top Under its Wing

December 7, 2010 – Enterprise IT Spending: Worry About the Government

November 22, 2010 – 4G: The Cure for the Common Cord

November 1, 2010 – Streaming On-line, On-Demand Video: Over-the-Top, On the Way

October 18, 2010 – It’s Not Just Advertising … It’s New and Improved Advertising!

September 30, 2010 – Large Cap Tech: The Revolution Will Be Streamed

September 11, 2010 – The Internet Core: We Can Rebuild it – We Have the Technology

August 24, 2010 – Portable Devices: Smartphones, and Tablets and Netbooks, Oh My!

August 12, 2010 – Internet TV: Extreme Make Over – Industry Edition

July 28, 2010 – PCs: Raging at the Dying of the Light

July 15, 2010 – Clouds: Who Will Get the Silver Lining?

June 30, 2010 – Apple vs. Google: Handicapping the Coming Battle for TMT Supremacy

June 15, 2010 – The Coming LED Lighting Revolution

June 2, 2010 – Enterprise Software Giants on the Prowl: Sorting Out M&A Targets

May 18, 2010 – The FCC “Gets It” – Competition, Not Market Power, Drives Innovation and Investment

May 3, 2010 – The Big Future of E-Learning: Beyond a Countercyclical Bump and a Student Loan Scare

April 22, 2010 – Quick Thoughts: Lower Subsidies Will Delay Handset Recovery

April 20, 2010 – A Thousand Paper Cuts: The Future of Cable TV

April 5, 2010 – The National Broadband Plan: Windfall for Wireless, but Catastrophe for Carriers

March 16, 2010 – TMT: The Only Constant is Change [INITIATING COVERAGE OF TMT]

Industrials & Materials

June 22, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, June 2015

June 16, 2015 – June Chemicals Monthly: Treading Water

June 5, 2015 – DuPont Question 2: Chemours is a No Win Scenario

June 5, 2015 – Skepticism + Positive Revisions = Outperformance

June 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, May 2015: Transports Derailed, Late Reporters Unable to Reverse Trend of Slowing Sales Growth

May 29, 2015 – Deere – Not in the Headlights

May 27, 2015 – DuPont – Question 1: Is the Return on R&D Investment Positive?

May 22, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, May 2015

May 18, 2015 – May Chemicals Monthly: Activisms

May 13, 2015 – The DuPont Vote – Short Term Noise – Change is Coming Either Way

May 12, 2015 – Corporate Complexity – Less Is More

May 6, 2015 – EMN – Time to Focus on the Shareholders

May 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, April 2015: Q1 Shows Notable Drop-off in Revenue Growth, Tougher Comps Ahead, Miners Catch a Bid

April 27, 2015 – DD and DOW – Backing The Activists

April 23, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, April 2015

April 22, 2015 – TRN – Options Abound

April 20, 2015 – Air Products is Running Out of Gas – Praxair is Refueling!

April 20, 2015 – April Chemicals Monthly: Short Term Spikes

April 17, 2015 – Share Buybacks – Borrow While You Can?

April 6, 2015 – Increasing Dividend Payouts – Are Current Policies Appropriate?

April 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review March 2015: More Pain for Metals, Transports Starting to Stumble

March 31, 2015 – Small Cap Optimism – Same Results as the Big Guys

March 23, 2015 – Searching for Small-Mid Cap Ideas in Industrials & Materials

March 17, 2015 – Alcoa – A Transformation Story at a Bargain Price

March 16, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly: Outlook Still Cloudy

March 11, 2015 – Optimistic Managements = Poor Capital Allocation = Stock Underperformance

March 9, 2015 – Prices Falling, Dollar Rising – Stocks Defying Gravity

March 3, 2015 – Domtar (UFS) Wants to Talk about Incontinence, Market Doesn’t Care

March 2, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review February 2015: No Sector Spared as Negative Revisions Continue, Deal Activity Highlights Slowing Growth

February 19, 2015 – SWK – Significant Step Up in Cash Flow and Still Cheap

February 18, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly – Volatility:Crude and Activists

February 9, 2015 – Industrial Gases – Pricing Coming and Good for All

February 2, 2015 – Monthly Review January 2015: Tone of Earnings More Pessimistic than Expected – Cue the Negative Revisions

January 27, 2015 – US Ethylene – Who Will Blink First

January 20, 2015 – BLL & CCK: It’s the Geography, Stupid

January 20, 2015 – Another Buying Opportunity in Alcoa

January 20, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly: Free Falling

January 13, 2015 – Own Goal Investing – EMN Presents Another Opportunity

January 12, 2015 – Favorites for 2015 & Industrials & Materials Methodology Review

January 5, 2015 – The Ethylene Conundrum: EMN the Value Play

January 2, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, December 2014: Annual Performance Reflects Relative US Strength, Consensus Suggests More of the Same

December 22, 2014 – Dispersion within Industrials & Basics – Opportunities at Either End of the Spectrum

December 17, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Race to the Bottom

December 15, 2014 – Skepticism Index: Don’t Be Skeptical

December 9, 2014 – Weaker Global GDP Suggests Some Heroic Expectations/Assumptions

December 8, 2014 – LYB and DOW – A Holiday Present From Europe With Interesting Implications

December 8, 2014 – Paper & Packaging – Seasonality Strong, Expect Outperformance in December

December 4, 2014 – LyondellBasell and Westlake – Not Yet!

December 4, 2014 – Large Cap Value – Where to Look if Santa Comes to Town

December 1, 2014 – Monthly Review December 2014: Falling Crude Leads to Further Weakness in Chemicals, E&C

November 24, 2014 – Praxair – An Unusual GARPY Opportunity

November 21, 2014 – A Capital Goods View – Europe & China

November 18, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – Spoiled For Choice

November 11, 2014 – Eastman: A Good Story, But At Risk Of A Complexity “Own Goal”

November 10, 2014 – The China OCC Question

November 6, 2014 – Capital Allocation – Why The Activists Are Where They Are

November 3, 2014 – Monthly Review November 2014 – Metals, Chemicals, E&C Left Behind in Market Rebound

October 31, 2014 – The Power of Positive Thinking – APD and the DD read-through

October 29, 2014 – Containerboard Capacity Additions Unlikely to Affect Operating Rates – PKG Well Insulted

October 20, 2014 – Looking Among the Small Cap Rubble to Find Opportunities

October 16, 2014 – Commodity Chemicals – Overdone? Maybe Not

October 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – A Whole New World

October 2, 2014 – DuPont Can Be A Bad Stock: If Trian is Right, But Gives Up

October 1, 2014 – Monthly Review October 2014: Industrials Cheaper Across the Board – With Some Singular Exceptions

October 1, 2014 – Plastic Packaging: A Wide Range of Markets & Valuations, None Overly Attractive at the Moment

September 23, 2014 – Why 2015 Could Be A Short Sharp Storm For US Ethylene

September 17, 2014 – Rising Dollar and Falling Crude – Bad For Commodity Chems

September 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – Revisions Down but Stocks Up

September, 10 2014 – BLL & CCK – Can Makers Not Cheap

September 9, 2014 – Marcellus Opportunity: Why We Should See More Chemical Investment

September 1, 2014 – Monthly Review September 2014: Revisions Still Negative, But Little August Downside for a Cheaper Looking Industrials & Basic Materials Space

August 19, 2014 – Natural Gas: The Future Fuel of Transportation – Not Without Help or Some Heroic Assumptions

August 18, 2014 – Deere: Earnings Risk Still Significant, But Likely Priced In

August 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Commodity Chemicals Roll On

August 14, 2014 – US Ethylene: It’s a Record Breaker – But No One Really Wins Quickly Anymore

August 12, 2014 – Paper & Packaging: Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) and the Containerboard Market

August 12, 2014 – To Russia, But Not With Love – Right Now

August 1, 2014 – Monthly Review August 2014: Earnings Season Unkind to Industrials & Basics

July 31, 2014 – CAT: Now Mining Matters – And Trends Are Better

July 28, 2014 – Industrial Gases: APD Must Focus on Costs, But PX the Better Investment

July 23, 2014 – DuPont: Ag-rivating, But Unlikely to Change Without Action

July 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Albemarle Active, Gases Gain

July 1, 2014 – Monthly Review July 2014: Commodity Chemicals Stretching the Limits

June 22, 2014 – Aluminum: Perhaps Too Cautious Too Soon!

June 20, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: All Eyes on Iraq

June 16, 2014 – European Basic Chemicals: There Is Life In The Old Dog Yet!

June 2, 2014 – DuPont: A Cost Initiative Could Be Substantial

June 1, 2014 – Monthly Review June 2014: Valuation Dispersion Elevated as Markets Stretch Higher

May 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Weathering the Storm Well

May 15, 2014 – Chemicals Revisions: Not Positive Enough and Not Supportive of Values for Many

May 13, 2014 – DuPont: The Case for $85 – But Why We May Need to be Patient

May 12, 2014 – Large Cap Capital Goods: Turning a Revisions Corner – Time for the Laggards to Win

April 30, 2014 – Monthly Review May 2014: What Weather? Earnings Strong Even With GDP Sluggish

April 29, 2014 – Dow Vs Lyondell: Bet on the Company With More Levers to Pull – DOW

April 28, 2014 – China Slowdown? The Real Risk is Exports

April 28, 2014 – US Natural Gas: Not Out of the Woods Yet!

April 25, 2014 – Air Products and Praxair: A Tale of Two Strategies

April 21, 2014 – Alcoa: Self Help Can Take You Only So Far – Now We Need Pricing

April 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Volatile Market But Stable Energy

April 2, 2014 – SWK: Upside to Earnings and to Sentiment

March 31, 2014 – Monthly Review April 2014: March Madness No Cure as Industrials Lag in Q1

March 31, 2014 – Petrochemical-Fest: A Summary of the Texas Gathering

March 24, 2014 – Seeding a Better Investment

March 23, 2014 – Why the Basic Chemical Investments in the US Will Likely Disappoint

March 19, 2014 – Peak Valuation in Some Commodity Chemicals: Something to Watch

March 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: All Getting Too Pricey

March 13, 2014 – After the Storm Clouds Clear: What to Buy on A Dip

March 6, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: February and YTD Performance

March 5, 2014 – APD: Time to Move to the Sidelines – PX More Interesting

March 2, 2014 – Monthly Review March 2014: Divergent Month for Industrials & Basics as Market Rallies

February 24, 2014 – Dow: A More Optimal Path, But a Hard Destination to Reach

February 18, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Performance for the Commodity Companies Defies Costs

February 17, 2014 – Dow – Loeb versus Liveris – Watch From A Distance

February 9, 2014 – Rising Natural Gas Prices AND Rising Commodity Chemical Company Estimates: How Can This Be?

February 3, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: January Performance – A Better Start than Denver – Just!

February 3, 2014 – Should We Care About the Weather?

February 2, 2014 – Monthly Review February 2014: No January Effect as Industrials Fade With the Market

January 20, 2014 – Optimists Won in 2013, but Are Now More Optimistic and Much More Expensive

January 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Better Fundamental Year – Or Not Enough?

January 9, 2014 – Chemical Companies in 2014

January 6, 2014 – 14 for 14: 7 Attractive and 7 Overvalued Mid Cap Companies

January 5, 2014 – 14 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2014

January 1, 2014 – Monthly Review January 2014: Charging Into the New Year

December 30, 2013 – DD: Still An Interesting Investment

December 16, 2013 – US Ethylene: The Case For A Better 2014

December 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Looking Pricey as We Enter a New Year

December 10, 2013 – Exporting Shale: A More Logical Perspective

December 2, 2013 – Monthly Review December 2013: New Year Focus With Revisions Negative

November 18, 2013 – The Recommendation Signal: Another Reason to Look at DuPont

November 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Energy Volatility Distracts

November 7, 2013 – Lyondell: Growth or Income, Both Have Risk

November 6, 2013 – Valuation Spreads Extreme

October 31, 2013 – Monthly Review November 2013: Industrials Trail the Bull

October 29, 2013 – PPG: What Do You Have To Believe

October 28, 2013 – MOS/CF: Clever Bit of Financial Engineering for Both Companies

October 21, 2013 – Common Sense Restructuring: Some Money to Be Made

October 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: More Concerns Than Opportunities

October 6, 2013 – The Case for Stanley: Why Reversion to the Mean Often Works

October 3, 2013 – Capital Goods: Unloved and Presenting Opportunities

October 1, 2013 – Monthly Review October 2013: Industrials Riding the Wave of Easy Money

September 26, 2013 – Return on Capital Jumps: Some Stretched Expectations

September 23, 2013 – The State of the US Chemicals Industry

September 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Richer Sector With Limited Upside

September 16, 2013 – Optimism and Forecasting in the Chemical Industry

September 9, 2013 – Outliers: Where Valuation is Inconsistent with Return on Capital and Estimates

September 3, 2013 – Monthly Review September 2013: Industrials and Basics Hold In as Markets Brace for Taper

August 19, 2013 – Paint, A Band Wagon and Some Very Poor Analysis: Implications for PPG and RPM

August 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Chemicals Starting to Look Expensive (Except Ag)

August 5, 2013 – Understanding Transformational Change – The Eastman Example

August 1, 2013 – Monthly Review August 2013: Earnings Reveal Nothing New

July 25, 2013 – DuPont: Getting Appropriate Value for the Growth Engine

July 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expecting Negative Revisions for 2H 2013

July 11, 2013 – Q2 2013: Not the Brightest of Outlooks Expected

July 1, 2013 – July Monthly: Midway Through the Year, Metals Still Searching For a Floor

June 19, 2013 – Time to Let the CAT Out of the Bag

June 19, 2013 – Complexity, Volatility and a Market Where Neither Extremes Work Well

June 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Mixed Month Midway Through 2013

June 3, 2013 – Monthly Review June 2013: Industrials Reflect the Housing Comeback

May 30, 2013 – Capital Goods: Time to Play the Valuation Card

May 14, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Outperformance Despite Negative Revisions

May 13, 2013 – DuPont: Betting the Farm – But Perhaps a Need to Crop the Portfolio?

May 9, 2013 – Getting Left Behind in the Market – Unless You Have A Story

May 2, 2013 – Monthly Review May 2013: Bulls Rave On, Industrials Sit on the Sidelines

April 25, 2013 – Price Weakness In A Slow Market – Can It Be Different This Time

April 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Stagnant Demand Undermining Pricing and Confidence

April 10, 2013 – US Energy Advantage: Unintended Consequence; Global Overbuilding of Petrochemicals

April 2, 2013 – Q1 2013: A Revisions Driven Quarter – Not Good For Our January Picks

April 2, 2013 – Aluminum: Always Darkest Before the Dawn

April 1, 2013 – Monthly Review April 2013: Capital Goods Out Of Favor

March 18, 2013 – Investing Around R&D: Looking For the Companies Losing the Least

March 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Few Cheap Stocks with Housing/Construction Exposure

March 5, 2013 – R&D in Industrials and Basics: Just Not Effective

March 4, 2013 – Monthly Review March 2013: More of the Same for the Industrials

February 15, 2013, – Chemicals Monthly: Cautious Guidance Appropriate, But A Drag On Performance

February 12, 2013 – US Basic Chemicals Economics: It Can’t Get Much Better Than This

February 4, 2013 – Monthly Review February 2013: Economic Uncertainty Rules The Day

February 1, 2013 – Optimists Are Everywhere and Most Underperform: A Quick Look at the S&P 500

January 25, 2013 – DuPont: The Uncomplicated Story and The What If?

January 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expanding Feedstock Advantage = Higher Values

January 10, 2013 – A Lesson in Expectations: Is There a Bubble In My Paint?

January 3, 2013 – 13 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2013 Assuming No Macro Change

January 2, 2013 – Monthly Review January 2013: Basic Materials Set to Open the Year At Extremes

December 18, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: The Rise (or Fall) of Propane

December 10, 2012 – Over-confidence Destroys Value

December 3, 2012 – Monthly Review December 2012: Post Election, Industrials See More of the Same

November 29, 2012 – Guidance Matters: Even for Chemicals

November 27, 2012 – Getting the Guidance Right: Some Sectors Are More Self Aware Than Others

November 19, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Down Come the Estimates – Again

November 9, 2012 – Increasing Payouts: Hard to Defend an Alternative Strategy – Dividend Theme Part 2

November 5, 2012 – Monthly Review November 2012: End of Year Questionable as Earnings Disappoint

October 25, 2012 – Unyielding: The Supposed Thirst For Dividend Growth

October 17, 2012 – October Chemicals Monthly: Coated in Glory, But Looking Like a Peak

October 11, 2012 – Earnings Preview: Expectations Vary Widely, Valuations Equally

October 9, 2012 – Commodity Chemicals: Building In the US, an Adventure or an Investment

October 1, 2012 – Monthly Review October 2012: A Month of Mixed Messages

September 24, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Cost Advantage Either Priced In Or Not Evident

September 7, 2012 – Grossly Different: Gross Margin Trends Speak (Offset) Volumes

September 5, 2012 – Gross Expectations: Why the Paper Bet is a Bold One

September 4, 2012 – Monthly Review September 2012: Strong Showing for the Industrials

August 20, 2012 – Election Special: Interesting Historical Performance, But Limited Statistical Significance

August 13, 2012 – Deal Flow Update: Big Cash Premiums Limit Odds of Success

August 7, 2012 – Monthly Review August 2012: Positives Driven By Cost Control

July 13, 2012 – Chemicals: Significant, Rather Than Incremental, Risks to 2H

July 10, 2012 – Housing: A Bright Spot, But Not Enough on Its Own

July 2, 2012 – Monthly Review July 2012: Still No Overall Reason To Get Excited

June 25, 2012 – Europe: A Big Deal and Unevenly Discounted

June 15, 2012 – Transports: Travelling Well

June 7, 2012 – Sector & Sovereign Industrials & Basic Materials: Monthly Review June 2012

June 5, 2012 – Inventory/Sales Follow Up

June 1, 2012 – Significant Downside Risk From An Inventory Correction – The Stars Are Aligned

May 29, 2012 – Industrials and Basics: We Should Be Deal Shy

May 14, 2012 – Chemicals Skepticism: A Wide Divergence, Commodities vs. Coatings

May 2, 2012 – The SSR Industrials & Basic Materials Skepticism Index

April 30, 2012 – Q1 So Far: Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction

April 16, 2012 – Metals and Mining: Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On

April 11, 2012 – North American Commodity Chemicals: Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely

April 4, 2012 – (Initiating Coverage): Redemption May Come, But Only To Those Who Have Truly Suffered

Utilities & Renewable Energy

September 13, 2016

Is This the Golden Age of Electric Utilities? A Primer on Historical and Forecast Rate Base Growth

Healthcare

June 23, 2015 – CVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?

June 16, 2015 – SNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent

June 16, 2015 – A Strategic Look at CVS/TGT; Why We’re Still Bullish on RAD

June 7, 2015 – ACA at the Supreme Court: Subsidies Are Here to Stay, Even if SCOTUS Finds for King

June 2, 2015 – US Drug Pricing Stalls. Uh-Oh …

May 4, 2015 – A WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO as a Counterweight to Narrowing Retail Pharmacy Networks

May 4, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

April 21, 2015 – ABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15

April 15, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic

April 13, 2015 – SNY: The (multi-faceted) Bull Case

April 6, 2015 – CVS, MCK, RAD, WBA: How WBA or CVS can fight narrowing retail networks – buy RAD

March 30, 2015 – AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002

March 18, 2015 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

March 17, 2015 – AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN

March 12, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica’s US Pricing Has Room to Grow

February 25, 2015 – WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter

February 17, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

February 9, 2015 – Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation

February 5, 2015 – Why ABBV is Still a Value

January 23, 2015 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update

January 20, 2015 – The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s

January 9, 2015 – Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings

January 6, 2015 – R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive

December 22, 2014 – ABBV HCV Regiment Approved; Further Upward Revisions to Consensus Likely

December 8, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

December 5, 2014 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise

November 20, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

November 17, 2014 – Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History

November 11, 2014 – SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?

November 6, 2014 – What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this Squares (or not) with Fundamentals

October 20, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

October 14, 2014 – WAG/RAD: Pressure on generic dispensing margins likely to be much more permanent than guidance implies

October 6, 2014 – Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know

September 22, 2014 – GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case

September 2, 2014 – ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari

August 26, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

August 12, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

August 7, 2014 – CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for Current-Generation Hepatitis C Treatments

July 28, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates

July 10, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

July 7, 2014 – The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing

June 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 2Q14 Estimates

June 24, 2014 – Net HIE Premiums Growing Faster Than Incomes; This is Likely to Accelerate

June 17, 2014 – Early Look at 2015 HIE Rates: Avg. Increase = 10%

June 10, 2014 – Large Pharma’s ‘Established’ & ‘Growth’ NEWCOs: A Solomonic Path to More Efficient R&D?

June 3, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

May 23, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 2Q14 Estimates

May 15, 2014 – Poor R&D Productivity as a Self-Inflicted Injury: Who’s Missing the Most Toes, and Why

May 9, 2014 – BIG Monkeys & a Looming Intervention: Pharma’s US Pricing Addiction

May 8, 2014 – Co-Pay Cards & the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth Part II – The HIE ‘Test Case’

May 7, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

May 5, 2014 – MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers

April 28, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data

April 23, 2014 – PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger

April 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates

April 16, 2014 – Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued

April 14, 2014 – ACA Enrollment Round-Up

April 7, 2014 – Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide

April 2, 2014 – The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low

March 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates

March 5, 2014 – The Trouble with Hospital Pricing

February 26, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 1Q14 Estimates

February 20, 2014 – ACA Enrollment and Adverse Selection Pressures – An Update

February 19, 2014 – Harvest Time for the Bill Collectors? The ACA’s Narrow Hospital Networks May Spur Demand for Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) Services

February 3, 2014 – Your (HIE-based) Plan Doesn’t Cover That: A Comparison of Drug Formularies On and Off the Health Insurance Exchanges

January 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data

January 20, 2014 – Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website

January 19, 2014 – Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges

January 7, 2014 – MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity

January 5, 2014 – Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies

December 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 4Q13 Estimates

December 15, 2013 – Why Adverse Selection is Likely on the HIEs: A Simple Model of Enrollment Behavior

December 1, 2013 – Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014

November 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates

November 19, 2013 – NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced

November 17, 2013 – ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent

October 24, 2013 – LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent

October 23, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season

October 17, 2013 – DVA / FMS: Generic Epogen Accretive to EPS

September 24, 2013 – A Simple Yardstick for HIE Enrollment: CBO’s Revised Estimate Looks Like an Outer Bound

September 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q13 Estimate

September 17, 2013 – Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard

September 11, 2013 – SSR Health’s ‘Hidden Pipeline’ Analysis: Relative Price and Value of Pre-Phase III Pipelines

September 4, 2013 – Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best

August 30, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate

August 27, 2013 – Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk

August 7, 2013 – Health Insurers’ Participation on the Health Insurance Exchanges; and Current-Market Premium and MLR Patterns by State

July 22, 2013 – Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market

July 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate

July 8, 2013 – The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay

June 26, 2013 – The SSR Healthcare Quarterly, Inaugural Edition

June 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Interim 2Q13 Estimate

May 28, 2013 – PBM Bear Thesis Update: The AWP Alternatives Will Soon Be Here

May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate

May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges

May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers

April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses

April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate

April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values

April 2, 2013 – Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean

March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC

March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?

March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate

March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables

March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013

February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate

February 11, 2013 -Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector

January 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike

January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand

January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP

December 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike

December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL

December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate

November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines

October 26, 2012 – Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise

October 22, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate

October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects

October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

September 17, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds

September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth

August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates

August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie

July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling

July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%

July 9, 2012 – Medicaid Post-SCOTUS: Nevermind Whether States Choose to Expand; It Appears States Have the Choice to Shrink

June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now

June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%

June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable

May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand

May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization

May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand

May 2, 2012 – Is There a Cyclical Rebound in US Healthcare Demand? Evidence to Date from 1Q12 Results

April 16, 2012 – Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give

March 27, 2012 – Why Losing the Individual Mandate is Good for HMOs, and other Earnings Consequences of Various Supreme Court Outcomes

March 12, 2012 – Accelerating Growth in Hospitals’, Physicians’ Offices and Other Care Settings’ Labor Hours Signals Improving Healthcare Demand

February 26, 2012 – Large cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable

February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks

January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power

January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (Temporary) Reasons

November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power

October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court

October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis

October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators

October 3, 2011 – Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements – AMP v NADAC

September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP

September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug Stock Selection

August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Towards Replacing AWP

August 15, 2011 – Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from BCA

August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011

July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case

July 11, 2011 – Why Employer Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance: A Simplified View

June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR cycle?

May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?

May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins

April 27, 2011 – The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs

April 6, 2011 – CMS says AMP is Coming; Why Ortho Demand May Slow

March 22, 2011 – Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on the States

March 2, 2011 – Post-2014 Reform Related Volume Gains are Modest

February 11, 2011 – PFE Decides to Shrink; HHS ends AWP; and Drug Pricing Hits a Speedtrap

January 26, 2011 – Ranked Preferences Across Healthcare (Sub-sector by Sub-sector)

January 5, 2011 – Copay Cards and the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth

December 1, 2010 – Demand Trend Improves Starting 4q; Why HDLC Drugs May be Bigger Than You Think

November 10, 2010 – Uncertainty and Motive in Pharmacy Dispensing Markups

October 29, 2010 – Why Generic Dispensing Margins (Eventually) Must Fall

October 4, 2010 – What a Republican House Means for Health Reform

September 22, 2010 – Skeptic’s Guide to Drug Stock Selection

September 7, 2010 – Why US Healthcare Demand Appears to be Falling

August 24, 2010 – Single-payor (read European) Governments and Your Healthcare Portfolio

July 29, 2010 – Consumers Add Risk; Insurers Add Power; Consequences for Providers and Suppliers

July 8, 2010 – Big Pharma’s Tenuous Grip on the Emerging Markets

June 15, 2010 – Why UNH and WLP Are Better Positioned for Reform Than AET or CI

May 26, 2010 – Why the Average Employer Will Drop Health Insurance in 2014

May 10, 2010 – Bigger Truth About Medicaid Drug Price Effects; PBM Price Competition; and Why Insurers Are Still a Buy

April 26, 2010 – Practical Boundaries of Health Insurance Regulation

April 19, 2010 – Why the Market Assumes Too Much Margin Pressure on Insurers, Too Little on Innovators

April 5, 2010 – Why Insurers Work in a Recovery; Introducing Our Model of Private Insurance Premiums and MLRs

March 29, 2010 – 3 Reform Realities That Aren’t Priced In

March 18, 2010 – Handicapping the Whip Count: Odds Still Against Passage

March 10, 2010 – PBM GMs: This Looks Like the End of the Cycle

March 4, 2010 – Last Chance: Betting the Ranch on a Weak Hand

February 26, 2010 – Post-Summit: Why Large Reforms Almost Certainly Can’t Pass

February 17, 2010 – Introducing our Healthcare Demand Model

February 3, 2010 – Health Insurers Antitrust Exemption

February 1, 2010 – Residual Reform Risks; Subsector Estimates Do Not Add Up

January 20, 2010 – The Political (As Opposed to Procedural) Death of Health Reform

January 12, 2010 – GMs Too High for Pharma, Too Low for HMOs; Why the House Won’t Roll Over

December 21, 2009 – Prospects for Conference; HMO Relevance of New Senate Provisions; Reimportation is Back

December 16, 2009 – Reform Prospects, Declining Risks to Insurers, and Adverse Selection in the Exchanges

December 2, 2009 – Biggest Reform Worry No One is Watching, Labor, and Massachusetts

November 17, 2009 – Why Health Reform Legislation Won’t Pass; More About Insurers’ 2010 Margins

November 2, 2009 – HMO & PBM Margins Expand; Public Option Has the Blues

October 20, 2009 – Health Insurers 40% Undervalued

October 6, 2009 – The New Abnormal: Health Costs Derail Fiscal Recovery

September 21, 2009 – Why the Senate Finance Healthcare Bill Doesn’t Work

September 8, 2009 – Reform Unlikely to be Large; Risk to Insurers Falls

August 18, 2009 – Political Economics and Investment Relevance of American Health Reform