Author Archive

Home »

Quick Thoughts: Netflix – The Dream is Alive!

–        All good news from NFLX for 4Q – beats on subs and earnings, bullish guidance, aggressive plans for international expansion, and pricing tiers – drove the stock up 15%+ after hours –        Subs were up 36.5% YoY to 41.4M

Read More

January 22, 2014 – Apple: Is Apple the New Microsoft?

The raft of new products launched at year-end have analysts bullish for AAPL’s FY14, and optimism may be well placed for 1H. Still, with high-end smartphones easing toward saturation, raging competition in tablets and dying PC demand, meeting expectations for

Read More

Quick Thoughts: AT&T REALLY Doesn’t Like John Legere, and Other CES14 Thoughts

–        TMUS CEO John Legere was the star of the day – Big 4Q net adds, big talk on LTE speeds, and a big plan to kill his rivals’ lucrative family plans by paying early termination fees for churners –       

Read More

January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014

New Years is a time for predictions. Here are ten fairly controversial forecasts that we think are likely to be true for TMT in 2014, and that, if true, will make money for investors who play accordingly.

Read More

Quick Thoughts: TWTR – Let the Haters Hate, I’m Still a Buyer … For Now

–        Given the dizzying pace of TWTR’s December run from $39 to more than $74, this pull back is understandable. Still, TWTR is poised to soundly beat consensus for quarters to come. –        4Q consensus expects a 32% seasonal QoQ

Read More

December 11, 2013 – TMT: The Good, the Bad and the MEH

TMT: The Good, the Bad and the MEH We recently published research (“TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall”) detailing the trajectory of companies and market sectors that have been overtaken by innovation. Threats to incumbents typically take 4-6 years from

Read More

Quick Thoughts: ‘Tis the Season to be Amazon

–          Amidst stories of tepid brick-and-mortar spending, on-line sales were up roughly 19% YoY for Thanksgiving and Black Friday, with mobile nearly 22% of total e-commerce. –          Sales from desktops were up 16% on Black Friday, compared to 43% growth

Read More

November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall

We believe that TMT is in the midst of a once-in-a-generation sea-change paradigm shift, driven by mobile platforms, cloud computing, and wireless broadband. The last such shift, catalyzed in the ‘80’s by PCs, cell phones, and telephone/cable deregulation, drove waves

Read More

Quick Thoughts: QCOM – In the Right Place at the Right Time

–        Gainsaying the naysayers, QCOM sees double digit growth in 3G/4G handsets with surprisingly stable ASPs for the next few years – driving chip opportunity and royalty collections. –        Snapdragon is the undisputed SoC leader, dominant in flagship smartphones while

Read More

Quick Thoughts: TWTR – A Week Later

–        TWTR has settled into the low-mid $40’s, yielding a fully diluted market cap of roughly $30B – coincidently the same floor valuation suggested by discounting a future multiple of sales. –        4Q13 consensus expects a 32% QoQ seasonal sales

Read More
test