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Retail Sales in a Single Table

With December retail sales in the rear view mirror (+0.23% sequentially, ahead of expectations and +4.2% year over year, still below the ’13 average), we can take a look at how the year finished up by category. While there were

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BEAM Going Away

Earlier this morning, Suntory and BEAM announced that BEAM would be acquired by Suntory in an all cash transaction. BEAM shareholders will receive $83.50 in cash (versus a closing price of $66.97 on Friday) The transaction values BEAM at nearly

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Game of Loans: Impact of Credit Tie on Competitive Dynamics in US Debit

The relative outperformance of MA versus V since end-July, when a Federal District Court ruled in favor of dual-routing for signature debit, is hard to explain. It is likely predicated on a share shift in signature debit from V to

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Implications for Visa and FIS of Structural Change in US Debit

Given structural change in US debit, downside risks to Visa’s multiple in 2014 exceed upside risks: Growth: We expect growth estimates for network-switched bankcard debit in the US to be reset as checks, whose displacement has provided a secular tailwind,

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BAC: Closing the Margin Gap with WFC

Over the last three years, the net interest margin at BAC has risen from 64% to 72% of that reported by WFC (with the corresponding figures being 80% and 90% if we adjust for the adverse impact of BAC’s trading

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Quick Thoughts – FIS/MCX: Access to ACH

A risk to the thesis in the attached note that FIS will offer lower-cost routing (4 cents/transaction of which 2 cents is to be paid to banks to contribute to the cost of an ACH-enabled debit) for MCX than Visa

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FIS: The MCX Opportunity for PayNet

FIS will allow merchants participating in the MCX payments system (which we expect to pilot in 2014Q1 and roll-out nationally before year-end) to accept card payments for an all-in cost of 4 cents/transaction versus the network fees charged by Visa/MasterCard

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COF: Capital Generation and Digital Opportunity in Payments Can Drive 25% Upside

We expect COF to generate 2015 EPS of $7.70 (20 cents above consensus) as the payout ratio rises to ~80% corresponding to a 2015 buyback amount of $2.5 billion and reducing the average share count by 3-4%; even with this

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EPA and Ethanol in ‘14

On Friday, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its 2014 renewable fuel standard proposal that attempts to ensure “the continued growth of renewable fuels while recognizing the practical limits on ethanol blending, call the ethanol ‘blend wall’”.  The total renewable

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Barclays: 2016 ROE Target Achievable Given Competitive Strength of Investment Bank

Half of Barclay’s risk-weighted assets (RWA) are in businesses which do not meet the cost-of-equity (COE, estimated by management at 11.5%). We expect improving returns at the investment bank, together with a mix-shift in the portfolio so that RWA are

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