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MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers

MRK’s economic returns to R&D spending (the relationship between Yr1 R&D spending and Yr10 adjusted earnings) have been slightly below the (falling) industry average since 2009. For reference, industry returns to current R&D spending appear to be below cost of

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data

Please see the SSR Health YouTube channel for podcasts of recent research Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products,

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PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger

The data in this note are extracted from: “Biopharmaceuticals R&D Productivity: Metrics, Benchmarks, and Rankings for the 22 Largest (by R&D spending) US-Listed Firms”, available at www.hiddenpipeline.com Increasing firm size = declining R&D productivity, both across (larger firms produce less

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates

We expect 3.5% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q14, the product of 2.5% growth in demand intensity and 1.0% growth in price. Intensity growth reflects a 20bp improvement over actual 4Q13 growth of 2.3%, and a

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Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued

The outlook for commercial premium growth is sluggish; modest enrollment gains from the Affordable Care Act (ACA) and rising employment are offset by the rising tendency of beneficiaries to either buy cheaper policies, or forego coverage altogether On top of

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ACA Enrollment Round-Up – How Many Have Paid Premiums; How Many Were Already Insured Last Year; How Their Health Compares to Employer-Sponsored Beneficiaries’

As of Thursday April 10th roughly 7.5 million persons have selected plans on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs); of these roughly 86 percent have paid (or are likely to pay) premiums; this points to a total of 6.5 million HIE

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Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide; Commercial Plan Sponsors Likely to Shift Away from AWP

Medi-Span announced Friday the inclusion of National Average Drug Acquisition Cost (NADAC) data in its point-of-sale pricing products for retail pharmacies; First DataBank made a similar announcement last December. These two providers dominate drug pricing data; accordingly NADAC is now

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The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low

PCSK9 inhibitors are injectables (biweekly to monthly) that lower LDL (aka ‘bad’) cholesterol by ≥ 50%, on par with max dose statins. AMGN and SNY/REGN are closest to market, followed by PFE Statin-intolerant patients generally are restricted to the use

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates

  We expect 3.4% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q14, the product of 2.4% growth in demand intensity and 1.0% growth in price. Intensity growth reflects a 10bp improvement over actual 4Q13 growth of 2.3%, but

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The Trouble with Hospital Pricing

As employees’ health insurance has shifted to high deductible forms, they’ve become personally responsible for larger and larger percentages of hospitals’ billed charges. And, as the average self-pay (i.e. deductible, co-pay, or co-insurance) collectible from an insured person has risen,

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