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We expect 6.8% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 5.2% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Our estimate of demand intensity is sharply higher in 2Q14 – reflecting an expectation

The average premium increase thus far proposed by health insurance exchange (HIE) plans for 2015 is 10%; this compares to 4% to 5% expected income growth for subsidy eligible households We encounter a common misperception that the Affordable Care Act

11 states have disclosed insurers’ proposed rates for plans to be sold on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs) in 2015. The enrollment-weighted average rate increase thus far is 10.0%. These states’ 2014 HIE beneficiaries represent 14.6% of nationwide 2014 HIE

We divided the large cap pharmaceutical companies into ‘established’ and ‘growth’ NEWCOs; we then compared the combined value of the ‘established’ and ‘growth’ NEWCOs to the legacy parent companies, and found no compelling evidence to believe the combined NEWCO values

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

We expect 7.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 5.5% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Our estimate of demand intensity are sharply higher in 2Q14, and reflect an expectation

R&D productivity can be measured, and thus managed, far better than is reflected in current practice Using metrics produced with a combination of US patent data and company disclosures, we calculate / identify: economic returns to R&D spending (the relationship

US real pricing gains for drugs sold in the US are driving nearly all of the traditional large cap pharmaceuticals industry’s growth. Only Roche and JNJ have US sales growth that exceeds the rate of US price growth, i.e. every

Drug benefits on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs) are far less generous than under employer-sponsored insurance (ESI); in many cases HIE beneficiaries will not fill prescriptions without generous support from manufacturers’ co-pay card programs If manufacturers allow their co-pay cards

Using patent data, we estimate the relative ‘true economic’ value of companies’ pre-phase 3 (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), then compare these estimates to the apparent market capitalization of these same pipelines. Our fundamentally based estimate of a given pipeline’s value often