Author Archive
The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s
US net pricing gains explain more than 100 percent of US revenue growth for the large-caps as a whole; making net price growth crucial not only to future growth but also to dividends, a signal feature of valuations Net pricing
Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings
The 2014 – ’15 flu season is slightly worse than 2013 – ’14 overall; we estimate flu-related hospital spending will be up roughly 30% Notably, most of the additional hospitalizations are occurring among the elderly (65+), in fact hospitalization rates
R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive
Returns to R&D spending are below costs of capital and deteriorating further; despite this the average large pharmaceutical company has increased R&D:sales ratios over the last decade. This implies that managements have faced little if any pressure to return cash
SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days
The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise
2017 consensus for SNY’s US basal insulins fell from $9.9B to $7.5B after the company warned 2015 sales growth would be flat, citing price competition. We believe estimates have fallen too far, and imply an unstable pricing environment with significant
Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
We use patent data to estimate the amount and quality of innovation in companies’ pre-phase III (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines); we then determine whether companies’ share prices accurately reflect what’s in these hidden pipelines. Since inception (November 2012), companies that screen
Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History
The original Medicaid program was passed in ’65, going into effect in ’66 – and only 26 states joined the program in that first year. By 1970 all but Alaska and Arizona had joined; Alaska held out until ’72, Arizona
SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) will hear arguments in King v. Burwell, in February or March of 2015, with a ruling likely in June of 2015. A decision to uphold King would mean persons buying health insurance
What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this Squares (or not) with Fundamentals
Hospitals are benefiting from rising patient flows and reduced costs for uncompensated care; however as insured patients move to cheaper forms of coverage they owe larger percentages of hospital bills, which they often don’t pay. Thus Hospitals’ net pricing is
SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days