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Quick Thoughts: Spectrum, Politics and Sprint

In the wake of the AT&T/T-Mobile bombshell and the CTIA wireless industry confab, the US telecommunications industry teems with controversy.  The industry is pleading for new spectrum.  The FCC is wrestling with Congress to gain approval for incentive auctions.  AT&T

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Enterprise IT – Let’s Go to the Cloud

We are bearish for near-term IT spending, and concerned about the implications of the cloud for many vendors. Global government spending and Japan represent nearly 30% of the enterprise IT market, and both are likely to decline in the face

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Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on States; Negative for Hospitals and the Drug Trades

Despite a slow improvement in general economic conditions, states’ fiscal problems intensify in FY2012, due largely to expiring federal subsidies and declining general and rainy-day fund balances.  As a large component of state spending, Medicaid is likely to face more

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Quick Thoughts: AT&T-Mobile

Assuming the sale of Deutsche Telekom’s US T-Mobile unit to AT&T can be approved by the FCC and DOJ, we see several far-reaching consequences for the TMT landscape beyond the obvious scale and spectrum benefits for AT&T, and the competitive

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4G: Faster, Cheaper, Better

4G is the “great wireless hope” – the only possible challenger to cable industry dominance of residential broadband internet access.  Detractors, including cable industry executives, have been quick to pooh-pooh the notion, suggesting that spectrum scarcity and the technical limitations

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Post-2014 Reform-Related Volume Gains are Modest

The common notion of 30 million newly insured in or around 2014 (13% gain) likely overstates reform-related increases in demand for health care Persons without a health insurance offer from a current employer choose coverage on the health insurance exchanges

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Mobile Advertising: Check In, Then, Check Out

Internet advertising has grown at a better than 17% CAGR over the past decade to comprise 10% of the US market, or ~$24 in 2010.  Comparatively, mobile advertising remains small – eMarketer estimates just $750M in mobile ads for 2010

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Quick Thoughts: More Mobile Cowbell

  Another month, another major industry event.  While these things usually offer nothing particularly earth shattering – the main reason we decided not to foot the bill for a week in Barcelona this year – this week’s news flow filled

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Quick Thoughts: Nokia and Microsoft

This morning, in an entirely telegraphed but still shockingly radical shift in strategy, new Nokia CEO Stephen Elop announced a comprehensive smartphone partnership with his former employer, Microsoft.  Most observers have been justifiably critical of both erstwhile innovation leaders’ efforts

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PFE decides to shrink; HHS ends AWP; Drug pricing hits a speedtrap

PFE’s R&D / sales will fall to 10.5% in 2012, down from 13.9% last year.  Strictly speaking, with R&D returns < WACC, the only ‘right’ R&D / sales ratio is zero.  Assuming R&D returns can be >= WACC (we believe

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