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What Next for the MLR Cycle?

We’re convinced MLRs remain stable through 2012 and potentially 2013, though we see significant risks of price competition in 2014. Consensus calls for rising MLRs into 2012 and 2013; we think this is premature, so we expect further outperformance from

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Cheap Tech: A Guide for Cautious Bottom Fishing

Historically, bottom fishing has not been a successful strategy for tech investors.  However, the extreme nature of the current market calls this truism into question.  Today, nearly 20% of all technology companies with market cap of more than $3B trade

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Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?

Dividing PFE as it stands (‘total-PFE’) into two or more entities, for example one having older off-patent products (‘established-PFE’) and one having newer products and R&D (‘core-PFE’), infers that such a division either makes core-PFE a growth company, or opens

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TMT in 1Q11: The Curse of Great Expectations, Launching a Model Portfolio

1Q11 was an odd quarter for large cap TMT – growth in sales and earnings were well above historical norms, while the distribution of surprises was unusually poor.  Against this, valuations remain near historic lows.  Parsing out the quarterly results,

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Small Cap TMT: Time for a Three Month Check Up

In our piece “Small Cap TMT: The Idiosyncratic Method”, we made a case that a thematic approach to sector investing was particularly effective for small cap stocks, vs. traditional value or growth styles.  While stock selection based on association with

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The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins

Plan sponsors’ (e.g. employers’) contracts with PBMs specify how much the sponsor pays for each prescription handled; plan sponsors’ payments to PBMs typically are determined as a function of the average wholesale price (AWP) of each prescription For brand drugs,

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The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs

Accountable Care Organizations (ACOs) are CMS-designed and sanctioned groups of Medicare providers that cooperate to produce greater quality of care, and savings in which member providers can share. Under the proposed rule there are few (risk-adjusted) savings available, and few

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Internet Everything: The Coming War for the Consumer

Consumer media, communications and commerce applications are being subsumed by the Internet. The simultaneous rise of smart devices, connected home electronics, fast wireless networks, content delivery networks and compelling cloud-based applications is fomenting a revolution in consumer internet use.  No

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Demand-side Energy IT: Green is Good

Recent world events have raised the importance of IT in energy policy. Even as rebellion in the middle east is reaffirming the precariousness of dependence on oil beyond ecological concerns, the Fukushima reactor crisis has reinvigorated opposition to nuclear power. 

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CMS Says AMP is Coming; Acquisition Cost Data Reduce Generic Costs 37% in ‘Bama; Why Ortho Demand May Slow in the Mid to Longer-Term

CMS confirmed to us their intention to publish average manufacturer price (AMP) data to the general public; this is in addition to Secretary Sebelius’ February 2011 commitment to provide average acquisition cost (AAC) survey data to the states We analyze

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