Archive for February, 2015

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WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter

Retail prescription margin growth has outpaced CPI since 1990, drug pricing since at least 2001, and any other major US retail setting’s gross margin growth since at least 2004 It’s not because we lack enough pharmacies, it’s because traditional drug

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TMT Model Portfolio Update: Escaping the Death Watch

We assessed the valuations of 187 US traded large cap TMT stocks, separating their EV into near-term and long-term components and graphing them on these axes. In the framework, the names fall into quadrants that have interesting implications for trading.

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SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update

Drug, biotech, and research-based spec pharma stocks tend to outperform their peers in the year or so before and after regulatory actions (‘PDUFA’ dates) on major new products, with a large portion of total risks being concentrated in the days

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Net Neutrality: Reining in the Dumb Pipe Oligopoly

  The Title II reclassification of broadband reflects a sea change in policy and is a substantial threat to the long term growth and profitability assumptions at the core of cable and telco valuations. The overwhelming public support for restraints

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Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation

Since early 2013, prices for generics sold in the US at retail have risen more than 40% on a sales weighted basis Three-quarters of this inflation was driven by straightforward median reversion: a host of products with very low prices

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR – BOOM! There’s MAUs in Them Thar Tweets

–     TWTR doesn’t have a user problem – it has a registration problem, and it’s taking steps to fix it. Meanwhile, it has the most easily monetized platform this side of GOOG search. –     Adjusted for change in the integration

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Why ABBV is Still a Value

GILD’s disclosure of an expected 46% average Harvoni discount for 2015 reduces our net pricing expectations for ABBV’s Viekira Pak to roughly $42,000 per regimen, down from roughly $60,000 Despite this, we still see ABBV as a value, simply because

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Advertising: The “Golden Age” of TV Enters its Golden Years

US TV advertising has crested and is beginning its inevitable decline. In an era of rising transmission fees and a vigorous market for content licensing, media companies have been reporting disappointing revenues for their TV network units – the result

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