Archive for January, 2015

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Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2015

2014 was a relatively quiet year in TMT, with the BABA IPO and the iPhone6 arguably the biggest events for investors. Our 2014 new year’s predictions were more on target than not, with calls for Samsung’s smartphone woes, IP litigation

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Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings

The 2014 – ’15 flu season is slightly worse than 2013 – ’14 overall; we estimate flu-related hospital spending will be up roughly 30% Notably, most of the additional hospitalizations are occurring among the elderly (65+), in fact hospitalization rates

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R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive

Returns to R&D spending are below costs of capital and deteriorating further; despite this the average large pharmaceutical company has increased R&D:sales ratios over the last decade. This implies that managements have faced little if any pressure to return cash

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More of the Same in 2015?

As we move into the New Year, initial expectations are for a broad continuation of the trends seen in 2014. As published in our monthly Industrials & Materials review, Transport and Packaging stocks were the big winners at the sector

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