Archive for September, 2014

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Quick Thoughts: EBAY – OK Carl, Just Don’t Tell Us “I Told You So”

–          A PayPal spinoff is a sharp shift from EBAY’s “one-stop” merchandizing outsourcing strategy, relegating often asserted synergies between EBAY and PayPal to arm’s-length contracts –          PayPal is growing but faces growing threats. AAPL is making payments an iOS default

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Quick Thoughts – The Online Challenge Faced by PayPal Because of EMV Tokenization

Financially, the argument for splitting eBay and PayPal is stronger today than in the past because eBay now accounts for less than 30% of PayPal transactions (versus over 70% a decade ago) and because PayPal is so relatively large (accounting

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Quick Thoughts – WMT Continues to Undercut Banks using Distribution Advantage and Durbin Arbitrage

Yesterday, WMT announced it will distribute GoBank, a mobile-only checking account offered by GDOT, which is exempt from the Durbin cap on debit interchange because of its size; with assets of less than $1bn, GDOT’s bank subsidiary, Bonneville Bank (a

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HB Fuller – Blaming SAP, But Where Is The Growth?

HB Fuller is taking a beating this morning after a serious earnings miss.  This was a company we were not paying much attention to given relatively fair value and its only interesting screen was a high level of skepticism, suggesting

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Quick Thoughts – Apple Pay as a Catalyst for Mobile Advertising and Other Updates

Below, we address some investor questions that have arisen since Apple Pay was announced on September 9th: Apple Pay is a Catalyst for Mobile Advertising: The card swipe is broken because it does not provide easy authentication for m-commerce purchases

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More Ethylene from Lyondell – Unlikely to Discourage Others

Today, Lyondell announced that it is studying yet another ethylene expansion in the US and that once complete by the end of 2017 the company will have added as much as 2.4 billion pounds of capacity through plant expansions over

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Quick Thoughts: Apple Watch – All About the Benjamins

–          The Apple Watch lacks a compelling use case at launch, but critics are gun shy after missing on iPad. Demand driven by fashion, not function, with 10% max penetration into iPhone base –          $349 is the bare bones price

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GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case

GILD’s decision to authorize HCV generics in 91 lower income countries arguably reflects multiple considerations, including that generics were likely to soon appear in these countries with or without GILD’s authorization By granting generic licenses to a core group of

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Quick Thoughts: Apple’s growth is all about the iPhone

–          The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus are Apple’s most important products since the iPad and will drive a significant upgrade cycle in its largest and most profitable product area. –          Screen size parity will pull upgrade demand forward and

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Keeping DuPont Together – Corporate Denial or Corporate Vision?

With Trian Capital’s letter to DuPont yesterday we formally open a debate that has been expected for some time – whether DuPont can create more shareholder value in pieces than it can as a whole. At the 64,000 foot level

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