Archive for July, 2014

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Quick Thoughts: Barclays – Delivering Against Plan and Attractively-Valued

Barclays interim results released this morning show strong execution against the good-bank/bad-bank strategy announced on May 8th and good business momentum outside the investment bank. The good bank or “core business” now represents GBP41bn of group equity of GBP55bn, with

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR 2Q14 – How Tweet it Is!

–          TWTR crushed expectations on every important metric, in particular delivering 24% growth in monthly average users, reversing a deceleration that had previously spooked investors –          Sales growth accelerated to 124% YoY, with ad $/MAU up 85% despite a disadvantageous

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates

We expect 4.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q14, the product of 2.6% growth in demand intensity and 1.5% growth in price. Following the BEA’s nearly unprecedented downward revision of its 1Q14 demand estimate, our projection

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SWK – Business Momentum to Continue

“We have a history of, if we can’t fix something in 18 to 24 months, we usually do something else with it. And we don’t fall in love with anything that isn’t earning its cost of capital.” – Stanley Black

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Lyondell Numbers and Very Weak NGLs Bode Well for Westlake

Lyondell reported very strong earnings this morning, beating consensus estimates by more than 10%.  The strength of their US olefins and polyolefins business was notable, given that the company has experienced a meaningful delay in restarting its La Porte (Tx)

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Quick Thoughts: AMZN 2Q14 – Jeff Bezos REALLY Doesn’t Care about You

–          AMZN delivered its 4th quarterly loss in two years, well below both guidance and consensus, driven by massive investment in new content, devices, and services, and promised bigger losses next Q. –          Sales were characteristically strong, up 23% YoY,

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TMT: Portfolio Update – Sooner, or Later?

TMT: Portfolio Update – Sooner, or Later? We sorted a universe of 67 large cap TMT stocks based on the 5-year cash flow growth projected by consensus, and the percentage of EV represented by the implied 5th year terminal value.

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Quick Thoughts: FB and QCOM 2Q14 – Image is Everything!

–          FB blew past 2Q expectations on every metric. Sales up 60% YoY. Ad sales up 67%. Mobile ad sales up 151%. Operating margins were 59% up from 44% a year ago. EPS beat by 31%. –          Ad spending is

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Dow – Good Quarter Understates Potential – Particularly If Dow Can Stick To the Path

Dow Chemical managed to show growth in Q2 2014 despite a couple of headwinds, some of which were discussed and some were not.  Weaker crop markets and plant closures were discussed but the company also raised a second issue that

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Quick Thoughts: AAPL & MSFT June Quarter Results – The Song Remains the Same

–          AAPL’s 3QFY14 was mixed, with sales 1.5% below consensus but EPS 4% above on impressive 39.4% GMs. iPhones were in-line with strong expectations, but iPads were down YoY – again! –          A revenue miss, 6% growth, the fast erosion

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