Archive for May, 2014

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Poor R&D Productivity as a Self-Inflicted Injury: Who’s Missing the Most Toes, and Why

R&D productivity can be measured, and thus managed, far better than is reflected in current practice Using metrics produced with a combination of US patent data and company disclosures, we calculate / identify: economic returns to R&D spending (the relationship

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Quick Thoughts – With Mercury Acquisition and Partnership with MSFT, VNTV Provides Critical Payments Capability to Next-Generation Retailer POS Platforms

The announcement yesterday by VNTV (market cap ~$4bn) of the acquisition of Mercury Payment Systems for $1.65bn solidifies its leadership position in providing “last mile” access to the point-of-sale (POS). This had been potentially threatened by the development of the

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Barclays: The Real Investment Bank Stands Up

Barclay’s investment bank represented ~55% of group equity but, on Thursday, management disclosed the more capital-intensive segments accounted for half of this and generated a mere 10% of investment-bank profits. With these segments consigned to a liquidating “bad bank”, the

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BIG Monkeys & a Looming Intervention: Pharma’s US Pricing Addiction

US real pricing gains for drugs sold in the US are driving nearly all of the traditional large cap pharmaceuticals industry’s growth. Only Roche and JNJ have US sales growth that exceeds the rate of US price growth, i.e. every

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May 8, 2014 – EBAY: Betting Big on the Future of Retail

EBAY: Betting Big on the Future of Retail EBAY intends to be the company that leads the way to the future of retail, seeing itself as far more than an e-commerce marketplace and an e-wallet payments solution. These present day

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Co-Pay Cards & the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth Part II – The HIE ‘Test Case’

Drug benefits on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs) are far less generous than under employer-sponsored insurance (ESI); in many cases HIE beneficiaries will not fill prescriptions without generous support from manufacturers’ co-pay card programs If manufacturers allow their co-pay cards

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Quick Thoughts – Barclays: Smaller but More Profitable, and Worth Comfortably More than TBV

The 42% revenue decline in FICC to GBP1.23mm in 2014Q1, reported yesterday, is a poor showing on both an absolute and relative-to-peers basis (even allowing for Barclays tilt to rates vs. better-performing credit, the currency headwind from stronger sterling, and

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Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View

Using patent data, we estimate the relative ‘true economic’ value of companies’ pre-phase 3 (aka ‘hidden’ pipelines), then compare these estimates to the apparent market capitalization of these same pipelines. Our fundamentally based estimate of a given pipeline’s value often

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR’s lock-up expiration feeds the bears. Time to buy.

–          The expiration of TWTR’s post-IPO lock up triggered a significant sell-off, taking shares to an all-time trading low of just over $32, off 45% in less than 3 months. This is a serious overreaction. –          TWTR is growing revenues

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Payments: A Primer on Card Payment Security and the Target Precedent

The retirement of CEO Greg Steinhafel, apparently related to the Target data breach last November, is shocking. While the proximate cause of the breach was weak security in the POS systems, the ultimate cause is Visa’s desire to preserve the

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