Archive for April, 2014

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Quick Thoughts: AMZN and MSFT – Seattle Takes its Turn Beating Consensus

–          AMZN beat on the top line with 23%+ sales growth, with in line EPS muted by increased technology and content expenses. Investors were spooked by guidance for a 2Q loss. –          As usual, AMZN divulged little detail, but Bezos

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Quick Thoughts – HSY

Hershey’s Q1 results this morning struck a familiar note within staples and the broader market this earnings season – miss on revenues, meet or beat on EPS.   HSY constant currency organic sales increased 3.2% (2.4% reported, shy of consensus by

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Quick Thoughts: Barclays – Moment of Truth

The market took in its stride Barclays pre-announcement that 20143Q1 profits would be lower than last year’s GPB1.79bn because of weak FICC revenues; the stock is up over 1% today at GPB2.52 and well above the GBP2.36 of March 11th

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Quick Thoughts: AAPL Quiets its Critics, FB Revs Up Growth, and QCOM Stumbles a Bit

–          AAPL’s 4.6% YoY sales growth came as a shock, as Chinese demand for the iPhone blew past even the most optimistic forecasts, and drove an unexpected GM pop to 39.3%. –          FB delivered 71% sales growth to crush consensus

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US Banking: Mobile Banking Will Increase Scale Economies

Despite a strong rally off October 2011 lows, large-bank valuations remain attractive with WFC, JPM, and BAC trading at price-to-book multiples of 60%, 40% and 30% relative to the S&P500 – at or below the low-end of pre-crisis ranges. Valuations

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Quick Thoughts: Discover Checking Account Offers Durbin-Advantaged Rewards

DFS beat on EPS ($1.31 vs. $1.25 consensus) and continued to outpace the industry in loan growth (5% year-on-year in card and student, and 26% and 27% in private-student and personal lending respectively); with double-digit account growth in card, we

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PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger

The data in this note are extracted from: “Biopharmaceuticals R&D Productivity: Metrics, Benchmarks, and Rankings for the 22 Largest (by R&D spending) US-Listed Firms”, available at www.hiddenpipeline.com Increasing firm size = declining R&D productivity, both across (larger firms produce less

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Corn Planting Progress Remains Sluggish

As of Sunday, 6% of the U.S. corn crop had been planted versus a five year average of 14% – a slow start to be sure.  Significant progress was made across more Southern locations (Louisiana was virtually completed, for example)

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Quick Thoughts – Another Challenging Quarter for MCD

We suspect that expectations were modest for MCD’s Q1 results given the weather in the U.S., recent trends ex-weather and the company’s cautious commentary on margins contained in its last sales release.  We believe that the stock’s recent move higher

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Quick Thoughts: Netflix Fiddles while Traditional TV Begins to Burn

–          NFLX beat on EPS ($0.86 vs. $0.81 consensus) and new subs (4M net adds vs. 3.85M guidance), as its original content strategy is beating on-line and traditional rivals alike. –          With the rapid expansion NFLX subs and streaming hours,

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