Archive for February, 2014

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Retail Sales and Retail Earnings

In our note last week, we commented on some dynamics that we saw during the holiday season that made us marginally more cautious on the U.S. consumer: Declines in per capita disposable income (Exhibit 1). A lower savings rate that

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Barclays: Normalized Forward Dividend Yield of 4%

The negative sentiment around Barclays, and cyclical component of the downturn in investment banking, creates a buy opportunity. It is not without risk given the potential legal/regulatory costs associated with alleged manipulation of the libor[1]/currency markets, but investors are offered

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Quick Thoughts – MCX to Work with Paydiant on Tokenization to Improve Security

The Target data breach has probably pushed back the launch date for MCX pilots to the second half of 2014. It must be hard for merchants to stomach since, while consumers associate the breach with a failure of security at

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Quick Thoughts: Kabletown Gets Serious

–          CMCSA is SERIOUSLY understating the approval challenges for its TWC deal –DOJ and FCC are philosophically opposed, Hollywood and Silicon Valley can offset its political clout –          Combined, CMCSA/TWC passes 60% of US households, and has 37%+ of broadband

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News From Inside The Fridge – Beware Commodity Chemicals

Following up from our research piece earlier in the week, we have some further data appoints to support our view that natural gas prices are likely to be stronger for longer – negatively impacting the US chemical industry, as well

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Quick Thoughts: Barclays – Numbers do not Support Negative View of the Investment Bank

I have rarely seen such a gap between strong management execution and negative market sentiment. Barclays stock is down nearly 7% after the full-year conference call in London this morning; the headline earnings number had come out yesterday and been

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Barclays: Expect Improved Guidance for Profitability and Leverage

With 2013 results and cost-cutting measures on Feb 11th, we expect Barclays to announce: (i) a 5-year target for a low-to-mid-teens return-on-equity replacing the current anemic target for a return in excess of the cost-of-equity, estimated at 11.5%, by 2016;

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February 5, 2014 – Google: King of the Kloud Krewe

GOOG dominates the booming digital ad market – we expect Search, YouTube, local, AdSense, and other initiatives to keep the company in front, even with the shift to mobile, social and video, and in the face of able challenges from

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Quick Thoughts: Twitter – Yes, but …

–        The good news: TWTR blew out 4Q sales and EPS on HUGE ad sales – sales/month/user up 50% QoQ and 72% YoY – turning an unexpected profit and raising guidance well above consensus –        The bad news: Investors are

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CVS to Tobacco – It’s You, Not Me

CVS has announced that it will cease to sell tobacco products in its stores by October 1st, believing that the sale of tobacco products is inconsistent with the company’s role as a healthcare provider. CEO Larry Merlo noted “We’ve come

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