Archive for January, 2014

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Retail Sales in a Single Table

With December retail sales in the rear view mirror (+0.23% sequentially, ahead of expectations and +4.2% year over year, still below the ’13 average), we can take a look at how the year finished up by category. While there were

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BEAM Going Away

Earlier this morning, Suntory and BEAM announced that BEAM would be acquired by Suntory in an all cash transaction. BEAM shareholders will receive $83.50 in cash (versus a closing price of $66.97 on Friday) The transaction values BEAM at nearly

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Game of Loans: Impact of Credit Tie on Competitive Dynamics in US Debit

The relative outperformance of MA versus V since end-July, when a Federal District Court ruled in favor of dual-routing for signature debit, is hard to explain. It is likely predicated on a share shift in signature debit from V to

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Playing Catch Up

As we think about how to invest in the Industrials and Materials sector in 2014 we are proponents of the idea that the laggards will play catch-up.  We first wrote about this in November and have seen some success with

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Quick Thoughts: AT&T REALLY Doesn’t Like John Legere, and Other CES14 Thoughts

–        TMUS CEO John Legere was the star of the day – Big 4Q net adds, big talk on LTE speeds, and a big plan to kill his rivals’ lucrative family plans by paying early termination fees for churners –       

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MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note In response to the Wall Street Journal report that MRK is planning a major shift in its R&D approach, we compare MRK’s R&D productivity

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January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014

New Years is a time for predictions. Here are ten fairly controversial forecasts that we think are likely to be true for TMT in 2014, and that, if true, will make money for investors who play accordingly.

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Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note We believe pre-phase III (i.e. ‘hidden’) pipelines are misvalued for a very simple reason: they’re hidden. However because companies’ patenting behaviors are consistent and

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Implications for Visa and FIS of Structural Change in US Debit

Given structural change in US debit, downside risks to Visa’s multiple in 2014 exceed upside risks: Growth: We expect growth estimates for network-switched bankcard debit in the US to be reset as checks, whose displacement has provided a secular tailwind,

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