Archive for January, 2014

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MCD and SBUX – Opposite Ends of the Growth Spectrum

Both MCD and SBUX printed EPS results yesterday and, expectations aside, the two prints stand in stark contrast to each other. MCD beat consensus EPS by $0.01, but came in light of consensus revenue, with year over year growth of

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Quick Thoughts: It’s Not Your Father’s Microsoft

–          MSFT handily beat the 2QF14 consensus, delivering topline of $24.52B versus expectations of $23.68B and EPS of $0.78 versus $0.68, with strength across the board –          Earlier, Nokia posted a sequential decline in Lumia WP8 smartphones, likely emblematic of

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Quick Thoughts: Netflix – The Dream is Alive!

–        All good news from NFLX for 4Q – beats on subs and earnings, bullish guidance, aggressive plans for international expansion, and pricing tiers – drove the stock up 15%+ after hours –        Subs were up 36.5% YoY to 41.4M

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Activism and Chemicals – A Fad or an Opportunity?

Activism in the Chemical space has targeted the right companies – where returns on capital have been lackluster at best and declining at worst, and where there are examples of better business models at different companies. However the pillars driving

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January 22, 2014 – Apple: Is Apple the New Microsoft?

The raft of new products launched at year-end have analysts bullish for AAPL’s FY14, and optimism may be well placed for 1H. Still, with high-end smartphones easing toward saturation, raging competition in tablets and dying PC demand, meeting expectations for

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note We expect 3.5% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 4Q13, the product of 2.3% growth in demand intensity*, and 1.2% growth

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Quick Thoughts – V/MA: It’s the Routing Rules that Matter

On Friday, Visa rallied near 5% on oral arguments in front of an appeals court where judges appeared to support the Fed’s debit interchange cap of 21-24 cents/transaction in possible conflict with a district court ruling of end-July that the

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Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note Through December 28, enrollment in states operating their own health insurance exchanges (HIEs) is roughly 2x (in terms of the percent of potential beneficiaries

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BAC: Room to Run as Rising Net Interest Margin Levers over Declining Expenses and Share Count

On the last earnings call, BAC guided to a tangible ROE of 14% “as we look out over three years” based on a 1% ROA and tangible equity/assets ratio “that’s just over 7%” (7.5% in the last quarter). In practice,

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Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges

Please see the SSR Health YouTube Channel for a detailed video walk-through of this research note As compared to employer-sponsored insurance (ESI), health plans sold on the health insurance exchanges (HIEs): are (>3x) more likely to require that deductibles be

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