Archive for October, 2013

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Quick Thoughts: Facebook Lights the Way for Twitter

–          FB and TWTR revenues are driven by the same things – how many user visits can you attract and how much advertising can you get them to view? –          FB spooked investors on the first driver by showing decelerating

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Real Q4 Pessimism – From Those That Should Know Best

There is a growing expectation that Q4 2013 industrial production in the US has stagnated completely, in part because of the government shutdown, but also in part because of the business uncertainty caused by the political jockeying in Washington and

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Quick Thoughts: Apple – Yes, but Can They Keep it Up?

–       Apple beat consensus with 4QFY13 revs of $37.5B vs. $36.9B and EPS of $8.26 vs. $7.96, but the dreaded whisper number was apparently higher still –       Expectations and iPhone launches aside, the results are kind of “meh” – sales

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Quick Thoughts: TWTR – Questions for the Roadshow

–        Preliminary pricing for TWTR at $17-20/share values it at $12.5B, fully diluted at the upper end of the range. I believe that it is worth $30B+ and that pricing may rise ahead of issue –        TWTR management has begun

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DuPont – Now the Real Story Can Unfold

Last night DD took the logical, what we had referred to as default, route to separate the company in two.  Shareholders will see a stock split sometime in the next 18 months and will hold shares in the new Performance

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Quick Thoughts: Mister Softy’s blow out quarter and business as usual at Amazon

Quick Thoughts: Mister Softy’s blow out quarter and business as usual at Amazon –          MSFT blew out earnings amidst a sweeping reorganization; It’s difficult to compare growth across segments, but growth is growth and more to come with new products

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LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent

Over the last 20 years, LLY accounts for roughly 5pct of peer group R&D spending, but only about 2pct of peer group innovation. This disconnect is worsening: LLY’s share of peer group R&D spending recently exceeded 5pct of the peer

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October 23, 2013 – Twitter: There’s Gold in Them Thar Tweets

TWTR is losing money today, but not for long. Stripping out stock compensation, TWTR’s COGS (35.5% of sales), R&D spending (34.5%), and SG&A (40.7%) currently yield (-9.7%) non-GAAP operating margins, compared to FB at 41%, GOOG at 32% and LNKD

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CAT-astrophic? Not In Our View

When we wrote about CAT in June of this year, we were clear that we were making a bottom of the cycle valuation call, and we also highlighted the risk that negative revisions might not be over.  To be fair,

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season

Among the “not exempt” services that were on hiatus during the 16 day federal government shutdown were data publications from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) BLS did

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