Archive for July, 2013

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Quick Thoughts: Netflix’s Quarter – If you build it… they will watch

  –           NFLX Q2 sales were on target and EPS beat, but failing to hit 30M US subscribers and cautious Q3 guidance triggered a sell-off after the odd streaming video earnings call. –           The success of NFLX’s original content had

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Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market

Gross of subsidies, and controlling for medical cost inflation, 2014 individual premiums for the cheapest plan option in the California market are substantially (average 63%) higher than for the cheapest option in the current market. We believe much of the

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Aluminum – NYT Article; Interesting but Perhaps Missing a Key Point or Two

The NY Times’ interesting expose on the Aluminum “Middle Men” and how much money they make by simply holding inventory and moving it around, illustrates a couple of things.  It shows how an exchange can be misused, relative to its

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Quick Thoughts: GOOG and MSFT Hit a Speed Bump

  –          GOOG and MSFT missed 2Q after beating 1Q, triggering a pull back, but more indicative of short-term issues than a change to their long term potential –          Google sales were strong – up 22% YoY adjusting for currency.

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate

 We expect 3.1% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 2Q13, the product of 1.6% growth in unit demand, and 1.4% price growth. Unit demand growth remains very slow; the projected 1.6% rate is essentially equal tothe inherent

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DuPont – A Reminder of the Opportunity

The July 17th movement in DD was driven by a disclosure that activist investor Nelson Peltz was building a stake in the company.  In our research on DD earlier in the year, we highlighted a general discount in the stock

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July 17, 2013 – War on TV Part IV: The Biggest Pipe Will NOT Win

The first 3 parts of our “War on TV” series looked at how consumer electronics innovation, improving on-line content, and ad budget shifts are catalyzing a migration of viewers and revenues from TV. As the self-reinforcing cycle of viewers to

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Quick Thoughts: At Microsoft, Structure Follows Strategy

  –          MSFT’s well-conceived reorganization focuses resources toward opportunities in the cloud, SaaS applications, the Windows platform, and the consumer market while streamlining decision making. –          This formalizes a clear shift in strategic priorities, reiterating the importance of Office365 and

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The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay

At most, the employer mandate would produce a roughly 40 bp gain in total national health spending. In reality the effect is likely to be even smaller. Less well compensated employees at smaller firms may continue to refuse coverage, and/or

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July 2, 2013: The War on TV Part III – Reductio “Ad” Absurdum

War on TV Part III: Reductio “Ad” Absurdum As we have written in “War on TV” parts I and II, the next generation of consumer electronics will make it much, much easier for viewers to find and watch increasingly compelling

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