Archive for July, 2013

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Fertilizer Turmoil

It has been an interesting 24 hours for fertilizer stocks, to say the least.  Yesterday, Dan Loeb said in an investment letter that his firm had taken a stake in CF Industries (CF), North America’s largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer.  The investment

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Fertilizer Turmoil

It has been an interesting 24 hours for fertilizer stocks, to say the least.  Yesterday, Dan Loeb said in an investment letter that his firm had taken a stake in CF Industries (CF), North America’s largest nitrogen fertilizer manufacturer.  The

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Quick Thoughts: Amazon and its investors don’t care about earnings

  –          Investors shrugged off Amazon’s unexpected 2Q13 losses in after-hours trading, shaving less than 2% from a stock that is up more than 25% since its 1Q13 report in April. –          Amazon sales were only in-line, although 22% top

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Chemicals: Complexity Hitting Home – But Volatile Distraction is the Focus

In recent research we have discussed the problems of a too complex portfolio, in detail with regard to the difficulties investors have in understanding and valuing a complex story and in passing about the management challenge of trying to drive

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Providing Some Context for a Solid New Home Sales Number in June

We know it is the busiest day of corporate earnings, but there is more data out there than just EPS.  For example, new home sales (yesterday) rose 8.3% in June versus May to 497,000, the highest level since May ’08. 

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Where is the Growth? – Try Industrial Gas

Looking through a number of earnings releases and transcripts this week and listening to several of the calls, the overwhelming factor that grabs our attention is the total lack of any expectation of industrial growth anywhere in the world in

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Quick Thoughts: Facebook and Qualcomm

  –          Facebook crushed consensus on 53% sales growth, accelerating from 38% in 1Q13, with mobile ads accounting for 41% of total revenues, all in a soft display advertising market. –          Mea culpa – FB may face big long term

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Panera (PNRA) – Q2 Results and the Broader Group

Last week, we suggested that we were having a tough time finding value in the restaurant group given what we saw as an unappealing combination of “full” multiples across the sector and aggressive revenue and EPS expectations. We also suggested

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Quick Thoughts: Apple – The Glass is Only a Quarter Full

  – Apple beat modest expectations in a less than remarkable 3QFY13, with upside on revenues, EPS, and iPhone unit sales. Still sales were flat YoY and net profits were off nearly 25%. – iPhone units were 19% above projections,

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McDonald’s (MCD) and Inflation

While commenting on quarterly results is something that we, as a firm, don’t do a heck of a lot of, we see value in highlighting data points from the various releases that are interesting and relevant to our broader thematic

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