Archive for April, 2013

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Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses

Affordable Care Act (ACA) provisions stand to increase smaller (≤ 100 employee) employers’ premium costs by 20 percent or more in 2014, before accounting for medical trend (+/- 6 pct) The ACA provisions driving the premium increase for smaller employers

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April 22, 2013: Quick Thoughts: Apple – Downward Revisions Ahead, Wait for Capitulation

–          Current sentiment for Apple’s FY 2Q13 is horrible – consensus EPS is down 15% over the last 90 days and Cirrus’s warning drove shares back below $400, off nearly 25% over the same time frame. –          Consensus says Apple

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate

We expect 3.7% (nominal) y/y growth in US health services demand during 1Q13, the product of 1.9% growth in unit demand, and 1.8% price growth; unchanged from the 3.7% actual growth rate in 4Q12. Unit demand growth remains very slow;

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April 19, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: The IPOs are Coming! The IPOs are Coming!

The TMT IPO market has been dead since the 2008 financial crisis. Facebook was supposed to make it safe for the dozens of increasingly valuable private TMT companies to come public, but botched execution made the FB IPO an impediment

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Confidence Gone? – If So, It’s a Long Way Down for Some; A Buying Opportunity for Others

Our measure of skepticism shows whether investors are concerned that things might get worse from here or confident that they will get better. It is a measure of whether current valuations reflect current returns of capital (so by definition in

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Quick Thoughts: @%!&* Aereo! The Networks Throw a Temper Tantrum

–          Fox and Univision are threatening to stop over-the-air broadcasts in the wake of an Appeals Court ruling in favor of Aereo’s clever system for delivering the signals to consumers over the web. –          The threats are empty, given contractual

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Aluminum – Focus On The Bigger Picture

One of the appeals of the SSR platform is that we are not forced to get into the weeds of the daily news flow and data points, and really only talk about them when they are relevant to a theme

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Petrochemical Investment – Doing the Right Thing for Yourself But Possibly Ruining It For Everybody

In a research report that we published yesterday we discussed the likelihood of over-investment in petrochemicals globally as a result of the apparent feedstock opportunity in the US.  We paint a bearish picture of possible oversupply, in part fueled by

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Quick Thoughts: Facebook’s Home Invasion, Twitter deals “Cards”

–          Facebook Home subverts Google’s control over Android, replacing the lock and home screens with Facebook content and unifying device messaging under the always-on “Chat Heads” app. –          Home is a very clever way to jump in front of Google,

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SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values

We solve for the share price value of research pipelines by subtracting the NPV of approved and near-to-market products from companies’ enterprise values. We then estimate the relative volume and quality of future products in these pipelines using quality-adjusted patent

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