Archive for December, 2012

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December 26, 2012 – Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price

Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price Valuation is a double edged sword in TMT.  Stocks prices that imply growth and/or profitability below expectations, may be undervalued, but may also portend disappointments and revisions.  These risks are

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FedEx – Incorrectly Packaged

Having now spent 26 years in the research business, equity and corporate, I know from bitter experience how unusual it is to get any form of immediate confirmation of a thesis (or a recommendation).  Consequently, I am incredibly grateful to

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike

Ignoring flu effects, we would expect 2.7% y/y health services demand growth during 4Q12, the product of 0.7% growth in unit demand and 1.9% growth in pricing. Total ‘ex-flu’ demand growth is projected to be 20bp lower than 3Q12–the combination

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Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL

States’ economic interests are best served by capping Medicaid eligibility at 100 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL), as opposed to the 138 FPL cap called for by the ACA If the state covers 100 – 138 FPL residents

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Quick Thoughts: In Search of The Legendary Apple Television Set

–          After 2 years of speculation, we are still waiting for the mythical Apple iTV.  Recent comments by CEO Cook and reports of tests with Asian suppliers, have proponents pounding the table again. –          However, revolutionizing TV with easy to

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Guarding Against Optimists

In recent work we have found a very strong inverse correlation between the levels of optimism that companies project to the market (vis-a-vis their expected earnings and earnings growth) and the performance of companies (as measured by many metrics).  Obviously,

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Quick Thoughts: Mixed Media – Conflicting CEO Conference Comments

–          Last week, cable and media CEOs presented conflicting views of a TV business threatened by on-line alternatives, evidence that assertions of industry solidarity are wishful thinking. –          Glenn Britt of Time Warner Cable expects to cut poorly rated channels

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December 4, 2012 – Google: The Biggest Hammer in a World Full of Nails

Above all, Google is a data processing company.  Early on, its founders realized that traditional IT was inadequate for indexing the internet, and committed to radically re-engineering data center technology.  Today, Google operates the biggest, fastest, most efficient, distributed data

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A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated

Drug and biotech stocks tend to outperform their peers in the months before and after scheduled approvals of major new products. Relative performance gains are spread somewhat evenly across time; risks are somewhat concentrated in the days just before and

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