Archive for October, 2012

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Quick Thoughts: If Netflix Builds It, Will They Come?

–          Netflix’s 3Q story of negative cash flow and decelerating sub growth is troubling given the leverage of content owners and potential rivals like HBO, Amazon, Google, and Apple on the horizon. –          If Netflix is to re-establish a growth

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Storage: All Roads Lead to the Cloud

The massive paradigm shift in the TMT landscape has profound implications for data storage and the companies involved in storage technologies.  Web-based applications for both consumers and enterprises are driving a rapid expansion in data.  At the same time, the

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Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidizes eligible households’ purchase of health insurance; in the first year of operation subsidies are geared to keep households’ premium costs below certain percentages of income Subsidies are subject to two layers of indexing: ‘regular’

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Quick Thoughts: Apple – Will Product Line Expansion and Shorter Cycles Mean Lower Margins?

–          Apple’s announcements today accelerate its annual product upgrade cadence, keeping better pace with the state of the art, but risking margins with a narrower window to amortize development costs. –          The iPad Mini was widely leaked, but there were

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Slowdowns Breed Commoditization

It was interesting today to watch the two sides of the CAT story emerge; the “it’s a cyclical low” versus “there is something more sinister here on pricing” stories.   While we are not in a recession, we are in a

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate

We expect 3.8% y/y health services demand growth during 3Q12, the product of 1.8% growth in unit demand and 2.0% growth in pricing. Total demand growth is 20 bps lower than our previous 3Q12 estimate – both the unit demand

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Quick Thoughts: Google and Microsoft – Does 3Q12 Really Matter?

–          Google and Microsoft both whiffed on 3Q12 but the results say little about either firm’s ability to deliver against longer term opportunities – both are positioned to win in the new emerging paradigm. –          Google pulled an IBM and

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Quick Thoughts: IBM and Intel, Canaries in the Coal Mine

–          IBM and Intel blamed weak Q3 sales and forward guidance on the obviously troubling macro environment, but a closer look shows evidence of the seismic paradigm shift underway in TMT –          IBM wants to hang its 5% YoY revenue

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US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects

Per-capita intensity (unit demand) rises and falls with the employment cycle; on an age- and health status-matched basis, privately insured households consume 2.7x the care of uninsured households. As a rough benchmark, a 1 percent change in adjusted (for labor

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Quick Thoughts: Softbank, Sprint and Clearwire – Menage a Trois?

–          A Softbank-Sprint-Clearwire combo makes sense for all parties involved, and could be a real competitive threat, particularly if more low frequency spectrum can be added later. –          Clearwire plans a TD-LTE network, the same technology used for Softbank’s 76Mbps

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