Archive for September, 2012

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US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind

We expect Affordable Care Act (ACA) health insurance and pricing effects to reduce real demand growth by roughly 30bp over the period from 2012 – 2021 Medicaid should expand to 100 FPL in most states; this translates to enrollment gains

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Quick Thoughts: Is Apple’s Head in the Clouds? It Probably Should Be.

–          The center of gravity for the smartphone user experience is shifting from the device into the cloud, integrating platforms across multiple devices and tapping the resources of web-based data centers. –          Maps are a critical element of this, with

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M&A Blog Follow-Up

All of the economic signals we see in the market today support the idea that demand growth is slow and is slowing globally.  China appears to be at a standstill, despite recent stimulus moves and slowly companies are realizing that

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Quick Thoughts: The New Microsoft – Taking Care of Business

–          Microsoft has a big 4Q12 ahead with the launch of smartphones, tablets and computers featuring Windows 8 and Windows Phone 8 (WP8) sure to draw critical scrutiny from the media and investors. –          Device announcements from Nokia, HTC and

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SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows

We expect 3.9% y/y health services demand growth during 3Q/12, the product of 1.9% growth in unit demand and 2.0% growth in pricing. This marks a 10bp increase over our initial 3Q12 estimate, the net of a 20bp lower unit

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Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds

We frame real growth in US healthcare demand as the simple product of: growth in persons, growth in per capita utilization, and growth in price. Our ‘baseline’ estimate of real demand growth, defined as the rate of growth one would

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Quick Thoughts: Shocker! Apple Introduces the iPhone 5

Despite Tim Cook’s vow to keep a lid on product leaks, the iPhone 5 was, perhaps, the least surprising Apple product announcement in recent memory. Upgrade demand will be off the hook – iPhone users have waited a year for

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TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World

In the three months since our last portfolio update, Apple and Google shares have risen more than 18% apiece, while the third and least established platform player Microsoft yo-yoed up and down before ending on a relative high note, up

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Quick Thoughts: Amazon, Motorola, and Nokia – Fighting the Unbeatable Foe

–          Nokia’s new Lumia Windows phones offer subtle, differentiated advantages that could drive real share gains if marketed properly – a big if, given recent history. –          Motorola’s new RAZR’s are spec sheet monsters that offer real competition for the

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Grossly Impressed – US Industrials Gross Margin Expansion, Suggests Innovation is Alive and Well

In recent work on gross margin trajectories for US Industrials and Basic Industries, we can’t help but be impressed by the positive and stable growth in gross margins for the Industrials group.  We were less impressed (but not surprised) by

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