Archive for April, 2012

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Q1 So Far – Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction

80 of the 132 companies that comprise our industry group indices have reported earnings for the first calendar quarter of 2012.  On average we have seen positive surprises (67 companies), but at the same time we have seen negative near-term

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Cheap Tech Redux: Sifting Through the Bargain Bin Again

A year ago, TMT stocks set a 20 year P/E low relative to the S&P500.  Since then, tech has rallied back almost halfway to its historical relative P/E.  However, the rising tide is not lifting all boats, with the dispersion

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Quick Thoughts: Verizon Blinks – What’s Behind its Spectrum Sale Offer?

–          Verizon is willing to sell extra 700MHz licenses that it holds in major metro markets, contingent on approval of its deal for spectrum held by cable MSOs in a higher band but covering most of the US. –          Verizon

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Quick Thoughts: Google – What’s More Investor Friendly than Growth and Cash Flows?

–          Google’s unusual stock split locks in voting control for founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin, and long-time CEO Eric Schmidt. –          The move is largely symbolic, as the trajectory of share issuance means that it would take decades to

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Metals and Mining – Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On

The metals sector remains attractive in our valuation framework, and at the larger cap company level the appeal is broad, with the best only fairly valued, and most well below fair value. This suggests that a basket approach owning the

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Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give

Estimates for healthcare stocks appear too low in light of improving healthcare demand; this is especially true for healthcare sub-sectors that are highly geared to changes in patient volumes (our favorites being Non-Rx Consumables, Hospitals, and HMOs) Over the past

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North American Commodity Chemicals – Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely

As production of natural gas in the US has risen it has increased not just the volume of methane available, but also the amount of associated gases; ethane, propane, butane and natural gasoline.  With the exception of ethane, these products

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Quick Thoughts: Research in Motion – A Model for Failures Yet to Be

  Failure to anticipate the changes wrought by innovation and quickly adapt to them has been fatal for many TMT companies over the decades. Research in Motion’s intransigent strategy and subsequent fall from grace in the wake of the iPhone

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Latest BLS Aggregate Hours Data Continue to Support Pro-Cyclical Thesis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday published the March 2012 Employment Situation report, which includes payrolls and hours worked at the industry level through February 2012. With the exception of general med / surg hospitals, aggregate healthcare work hours

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April 4, 2012 – Sector and Sovereign Industrials Launch – Graham Copley

  Today we have initiated coverage of the Industrials and Basic Industries Sectors. Outperformance over the past 6 months despite negative revisions has sadly led the group as a whole to be, in aggregate, fairly valued – limiting our initial

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