Archive for February, 2012

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Quick Thoughts: Apple Doomsayers – Way Too Early is the Same as Wrong

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/business/apple-confronts-the-law-of-large-numbers-common-sense.html?_r=1&scp=4&sq=apple&st=cse http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/27/technology/apple-riding-high-but-for-how-long.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss   As Apple flirts with a $500B market cap, media attention seems to have shifted from speculation on what the company might do in the post-Jobs era to scouring the company’s foundation for cracks.  The New York Times

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Large Cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable

List price increases account for 48% of real US pharma sales growth since 1980, and roughly ½ of global returns to R&D spending since 1990. More recently eroding mix has compounded reliance on real pricing, which drove 145% of real

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Quick Thoughts: Comcast Gaining Speed but Runway is Short

–          Comcast’s 4Q11 results were strong, driven by rising pricing and increasing penetration of high speed internet service, and economic recovery, election year ad spending and the summer Olympics could fuel further momentum in 2012. –          However, deceleration in video

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The Future of Video Advertising: Three-Screens, #hashtags, and Streams

  The 2012 Super Bowl may have been a turning point for leading edge advertisers in embracing hybrid campaigns across multiple screens and media.  However, the balance of the market still tilts toward traditional TV ads, partly because the analytical

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The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks

US healthcare demand growth is slow for cyclical reasons; this implies an acceleration of US healthcare demand as the broader economy improves; we recommend hospitals (e.g. HCA, UHS, THC), HMOs (e.g. UNH, WLP), and non-Rx consumables (e.g. BAX, BDX, COV)

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Quick Thoughts: And You Thought Amazon and Google Didn’t Care About Investors

  –          Facebook S1 reveals sales a bit lighter than many thought, but very strong margins –          The addressable market could be huge IF Facebook decides to go after it –          Zuckerberg’s letter reveals his indifference to short term profitability

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Quick Thoughts: Amazon Still Don’t Care About Your Quarterly Results

–          34% organic growth for a $48B retailer in this economy is objectively strong, even if it is short of analyst guesses –          Amazon (and Google and Facebook and Apple) are playing for multi-trillion dollar markets –          The long term

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