Archive for January, 2012

Home »

Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?

Most multichannel TV forecasts assume a stable industry model facing incremental changes that will play out over many years.  We believe that assumptions for robust ARPU gains, higher ad sales, and a stable subscriber base are unrealistic, given high current

Read More

Quick Thoughts: iBlowout – iPad and iPhone Lead the Way

    –          Unlike Amazon and Google, Apple cares about margins and proved it in 1QFY12 –          Set up for a strong 2012 if expectations don’t get too out of hand –          A successful transition to iCloud is the key

Read More

Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power

Hospitals trade at a 30+% discount (’13 PE forward) to cap-weighted Healthcare and the SP500; fundamental concerns appear centered on a combination of weak volume / procedure mix, and the effect of Budget Control Act (BCA) related Medicare rate cuts

Read More

Quick Thoughts: Google, Intel, Microsoft and IBM

–       Google miss may portend general economic weakness, but long term position is still extremely attractive –       Strong Intel sales curious given PC weakness reported by others, we’re still skeptical long term –       Microsoft gets strength from Xbox, beats despite

Read More

Virtualization and “The Cloud”: No Silver Lining Ahead For Enterprise Data Center Vendors

  Virtualization and “the cloud” are NOT equivalent concepts.  Virtualization is a software technology that allows many users to flexibly and securely share a computing resource.  It can be implemented within a single private enterprise data center, or by a

Read More

Quick Thoughts: CES Day Three – I Want That Toy Helicoper That Fires Missiles

  YouTube keynote highlights the virtuous cycle of growing content, viewers and ad dollars Connected TV will be a battle royale Things I liked on the floor – OLED TVs, Dish Networks’ Hopper, Chinese smartphones, Android tablet proliferation, Windows 8,

Read More

Quick Thoughts: CES Day Two – Look, I’m Walkin’ Here

Intel has 2 Medfield customers – yawn Auto makers promise consumer electronics that are not obsolete when you drive them off the lot FCC Chairman Genachowski is frustrated with Congress, but expects more spectrum soon   The only suspense at

Read More

And Now Some Humble π … Brand Drug Pricing Runs the Traditional Election-Year Red Light

We had generally expected brand drug pricing to decelerate into 2012, but the January price trend is fairly convincing evidence that we simply got this wrong – real pricing gains for brand drugs are continuing apace As we’ve shown previously,

Read More

US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (i.e. Temporary) Reasons; Volume-Sensitive Names are Undervalued

From 1960 to 2007 average per-capita ‘units’ and ‘mix’ of care (which we follow using an aggregate measure termed ‘elasticity/mix’) grew 2.2% (real, per-capita) annually, then fell 40bp each year from 2008 through 2011, reaching a 50-year low in 2010

Read More

Quick Thoughts: Day 1 and Boy, Are My Feet Tired …

Microsoft dog and pony emphasis on Metro as a unified interface suggests they “get it” Consultant led panel on “over the top” TV suggests that many companies don’t “get it” C/Net names “The Ecosystem” as the next big thing –

Read More
test