SWK – Business Momentum to Continue

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“We have a history of, if we can’t fix something in 18 to 24 months, we usually do something else with it. And we don’t fall in love with anything that isn’t earning its cost of capital.” – Stanley Black & Decker CEO John Lundgren

When we wrote about SWK in early April, we noted its indirect leverage to various housing and construction markets. With these markets hardly busting down the doors in 2014 year to date, it is all the more impressive that Stanley was able to post the strong Q2 that it did.

The company has shown a clear ability to control costs, and this has contributed to strong operating leverage – in the Industrial segment, notably, a 3% increase in volume translated into a 22% increase in operating margin. SWK management sees momentum in this segment continuing in Q3.

With the polar vortex winter cutting into the outdoor products selling season, CDIY volumes were flat but margins rose to a post Black & Decker merger high. The company gained share in Europe and expects mid single digit volume growth to resume in the second half of the year.

The Security segment importantly saw sequential improvement. It was noted on the conference call that the vertical security solutions are gaining traction in North America and COO Jim Loree indicated “we have some wins on the horizon that I think will be eye-opening in size.” This system is still a quarter or two (or three) away from being implemented in Europe, where attrition rates continue to moderate in the wake of the Niscayah acquisition from Securitas. Significantly, it was noted that Spain and Italy (representing 10% of European Security sales) are the main drags on performance there, with the company’s other 12 markets in the region seeing a turnaround.

The above quote from CEO John Lundgren likely also encouraged investors. The Security division has been a distraction from and a drag on a group of otherwise strong, cash generative businesses with stable return profiles and improving market shares.

All in all, this is still an inexpensive company with a very healthy stable of brands in the CDIY segment, exposure to the still strong OEM atuo market in the Industrial & Automotive Repair segment, and an improving story in the Security segment. It seems that in the latter segment, the trends will remain on a positive trajectory, and if some markets scuffle, the company has not ruled out cutting their losses. Acceleration in the housing and construction markets could provide an additional tailwind. The company felt comfortable raising their full year EPS range – the previous high end of $5.50 a share is now the lower bound with $5.60 the top end. We think SWK now has considerable business momentum and would expect the company wide margin improvements seen in Q2 to continue in Q3 as Security incrementally improves and the other segments benefit from operating leverage given the demonstrated commitment to cost control. Our valuation model has SWK fairly valued at over $120 per share, representing more than 33% upside from current levels.

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