Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings – The Epic Tech Run Continues
The Future of Video: The Cable Era Gives Way to Streaming Dominance
Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings – A Big Week After the INTC Bombshell
Quick Thoughts: A Skittish Market Awaits Big Tech 2Q Earnings
Quick Thoughts: 2Q Earnings Will Show the Winners and the Losers
Smartphones: They Picked the Wrong Year to Call for a Super-cycle
Quick Thoughts: Wither Self-driving Robo-taxis
Digital Advertising: TV Goes the Way of the Newspaper
Portfolio Update: Buying the Wheat, Selling the Chaff
Quick Thoughts: Breaking Up GAFA
TMT in the Pandemic: The Separation of Winners and Losers
Quick Thoughts: April Quarter Earnings Add Color to the Story
SaaS: Opportunities and Obstacles – Who Wins?
Quick Thoughts: 1Q Earnings – The Picture Gets Clearer
5G: The Heat is Off
Quick Thoughts: 1Q Earnings – Bring on the Megacaps
Quick Thoughts: Finally a Glimpse of What’s Going On
E-Commerce in the Time of COVID-19
Quick Thoughts: Great Companies But…
Post-Pandemic Media: More Screen-time For Everyone
Working at Home: Technology of Necessity Will Become Permanent
Quick Thoughts: Stock Picking is Coming Back!
Portfolio Update: The Megacaps and the Pandemic
Quick Thoughts: Waiting for the Bottom
Quick Thoughts: What to Do When it’s Safe to Go Back in the Water
Quick Thoughts: Last Week this Morning – No Rest for TMT Investors
Quick Thoughts: The End of 4Q TMT Earnings – What did We Learn?
Smart Homes: Are We There Yet?
Quick Thoughts: TMUS/S – Finally!
Quick Thoughts: Earnings – What Have We Learned So Far?
Quick Thoughts: What Happened and What Do We Expect?
Quick Thoughts: IBM – Rerating After Rometty
Quick Thoughts: The Week That Was and the Days Ahead
After Smartphones: Hold the Metaverse, the Cloud Assistant Era is Coming
Quick Thoughts: Who Will Buy?
Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2020
Portfolio Update: 2019 Research Review – So Far, So Good
Quick Thoughts: Is Cloud Gaming the 5G Killer App?
Quick Thoughts: The Long Road to AR Glasses
Game Streaming: Not Everyone Can Win
Quick Thoughts: GOOGL/FIT Makes a Lot of Sense
Quick Thoughts: DIS and VZ Sitting in a Tree …
Smartphones: The Market is Mature – Now What?
Portfolio Update: Cyclical Semis and Merchant Acquirers – Will They Have Legs?
Cybersecurity: Dumb Users and State-sponsored Cyberweapons
5G: Why TMUS Will Win
Digital Payments: Revolution at the Register
Quick Thoughts: 2Q Odds and Ends
Digital Consumer Banking: What Will GAFA Do?
Quick Thoughts: Breaking Up the Tech Giants? Don’t Bet On It!
Portfolio Update: Highlighting Execution, Regulatory and Valuation Risks
The 3 Phases of 5G: Coverage, Density, and Applications
Quick Thoughts: UBER is Better Than Lyft – So What
Semiconductor Forecasts: Too Bullish on Smartphones, Too Bearish on the Cloud
Quick Thoughts: QCOM and AAPL Bury the Hatchet on the First Day of Trial
LYFT and UBER: Welcoming the New Robo-Cab Overlords
ADAS: The Near-Term Opportunity for Components
Quick Thoughts: NVDA bets heavy on its datacenter ambitions
Model Portfolio Update: What is Value in Tech?
Hybrid Cloud Platforms: Herding Cats and Dogs Together – Efficiently and Securely
Quick Thoughts: NVDA – An Inventory Glut, A China Trade War, and a Cloud CAPEX Intermission Walk into a Bar …
SaaS: Handicapping the Unicorn Races
Quick Thoughts: AAPL – The Aftermath
Ten Investable Things that We Think Will Happen in 2019
Model Portfolio: Is It Safe?
Cloud Software: A Long Journey with Three Layers
Quick Thoughts: NVDA – The Aftermath
Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Pay No Attention to the Unit Sales Behind the Curtain!
E-Commerce: The Long and Winding Runway
Quick Thoughts: Big Blue Puts on a Red Hat
Digital Advertising: The Runway is a LOT Longer than it Looks
Quick Thoughts: Another September iPhone Launch
The TMT Model Portfolio: 15 Well Positioned Stocks and a few more
The End of TV: Media Strains to Adapt to the Streaming ERa
Banks, Payments and Blockchain: Right Idea, Wrong Tool
Quick Thoughts: The Future of Shopping
AI Risk Management: Catalyzing Banking’s Move to the Cloud
AI Assistants: The New UI Paradigm that will End the OS/App Era
Quick Thoughts: This Week in Robocabs
15 Stock TMT Model Portfolio: Winning Enterprise Cloud and Betting on Self-Service Analytics
AI, Blockchain and the Cloud: Banks in the New Technology Era
Quick Thoughts: Things I Think About the TMUS-S Merger
Quick Thoughts: Things I Think About Google
NVDA: AI Upside Greatly Outweighs Crypto Risks
FB: Recovery? Yes … But Then What?
Self-Driving Cars: Waymo and GM are FAR ahead of Uber…And Everyone Else
Quick Thoughts: QCOM – Now What?
Commercial Blockchain: Objects May Be Further Away Than They Appear
15 Stock TMT Model Portfolio: Removing QCOM, TMUS and Adding ZEN, ACN
Quick Thoughts: A Social Media Pair Trade – Long TWTR, Short SNAP
Quick Thoughts: AAPL -There is No iPhone Supercycle. Now What?
Quick Thoughts: Broadcom’s Fascination with Qualcomm Continues
Quick Thoughts: Waymo Gets Way More
Quick Thoughts: A Possible Kickstart for Disruptive Healthcare AI
Healthcare AI: Taking a Long Road One Pain Point at a Time
Quick Thoughts: Security Concerns Demand Processor Diversity
Quick Thoughts: Who’s Buyin’ Who?
Ten Investible Things that We Think Will Happen in 2018
GOOGL: Waymo is worth $75B+ Right Now
Quick Thoughts: AMZN’s Pharma Opportunity
TMT Model Portfolio Update: Tempering Volatility
Hyperscale Semiconductors: Processor Diversity Coming to The Cloud
Quick Thoughts: Bankers Rejoice in TMT Land
AMZN: How to enter (and ultimately dominate) pharmacy
Quick Thoughts: Broadcom Offer is Another Twist in the Qualcomm Soap Opera
Quick Thoughts: QCOM and AAPL – The Chicken Game Continues
Quick Thoughts: AMZN, and MSFT and GOOGL – OH MY! Tech’s Big Day
Autonomous Trucks: Self Driving Convoys are YEARS Away
TMT: Worrying About the Government
Augmented Reality: Smartphone AR Won’t Be the Next Big Thing
The Cloud/AI Era: A Perspective on the Next Decade of TMT Investing
Quick Thoughts: Alexa and Cortana Sitting in a Tree…
Quick Thoughts: News Shows Waymo Making Progress While Rivals Flail
Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Winter is Coming
5G Test Equipment: Adding KEYS to Our Model Portfolio
Quick Thoughts: IBM – Yes, We Were Way Too Early
Quick Thoughts: AMZN and DISH talk 5G
Self-Driving Cars: Building a Team to Bring TaaS to Market
5G: Rising Global Carrier Competition to Drive Capex
Quick Thoughts: AMZN + WFM = Synergies and Options
Quick Thoughts: AAPL renews its vows to the device
5G: Hyperscale + AI + 5G = Sea Change
SNAP vs. TWTR: In with the Old, Out with the New
A 5G Wireless Primer: The Final Ingredient for the Next Era of TMT
The TMT Model Portfolio: 15 Well Positioned Stocks
IBM: Watson – Steak or Just Sizzle?
IBM: Are We There Yet?
Quick Thoughts: Intel Doubles Down on Autonomous Cars
Quick Thoughts: A Match Made in the Cloud
Quick Thoughts: YouTube TV is More Than a Me-Too OTT Service
Quick Thoughts: GOOGL Brings the Chips to the Cloud Party
SNAP: A High Wire Act Without a Moat
AI: Sizing the Market – Big, Bigger and Biggest
Quick Thoughts: Daimler and Uber Join Forces
Quick Thoughts: AAPL takes a swing at QCOM
Quick Thoughts: Post Trump Earnings – a 4Q16 Preview
Quick Thoughts: Waymo Way Ahead
Quick Thoughts: CES – AI Assistants, Self-driving Cars … and PCs?
Quick Thoughts: NVIDIA goes full AI headlining CES Keynote
Ten Investible Things that We Think Will Happen in 2017
VR and AR: The Real(ity) Story
Quick Thoughts: GOOGL – Waymo Fly Than You
Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Adding LNKD to its Professional Network
TMT Model Portfolio Update: The Tech Trump Slump
Apple: AI Winter is Coming
AI Data – Food For (Artificial) Thought
AI as a Service: Deep Learning is Fundamental
GOOGL: It’s not About the Hardware
TWTR: Data is Gold in an AI World
AI Wars: CRM Strikes Back!
Autonomous Cars: Self-Driving Ambition
TMT: 2Q16 Model Portfolio Update
SaaS Applications: Cloudy With a Chance of M&A
MSFT: An AI-powered Vision for the Future of Enterprise Computing
QCOM: Finally at the Inflection Point
TMT: 2Q16 Earnings Season Preview
AI Assistants: The Next User Interface Paradigm
AI: Where the Brains Are
Quick Thoughts: MSFT-LNKD Big Obvious Synergies, Watch Out CRM
Hyperscale Hardware: Components for the AI Cloud
A Deep Learning Primer – The Reality May Exceed the Hype
TMT: 1Q16 Earnings – It Ain’t 2014 Anymore
TMT: Hot Politics, Slumping Devices, Online Shopping, and a Weaker Dollar
FB: All You Need is Like
OTAs: Wanna Get Away?
Quick Thoughts: Apple – The Song Remains the Same
TMT Model Portfolio Update: What next?
Cybersecurity: Trust No One
Quick Thoughts: Catching the TWTR Knife
Quick Thoughts: SaaS-mageddon
Quick Thoughts: Apres le Deluge – Earnings
Ten Investible Things that We Think Will Happen in 2016
Quick Thoughts: Growth TMT is (Mostly) Safer than You Think
TMT: The Longs and Shorts of it
North American and European Power Demand Will Take Years to Recover 2019 Levels
A Severe Recession Implies Unprecedented Regulatory Risks & Opportunities: Which Utilities Are Best and Worst Positioned?
Which Utilities Face the Most Aggressive Regulators? And Which Have the Most Supportive?
By How Much Do Commissions Cut Utilities’ Rate Case Requests? A Look at Which States are Most and Least Generous in Rate Cases
Utilities on the Defensive: In the Shadow of COVID, What New Challenges Face the Industry?
Why California’s Rising Solar Curtailment Will Leave Solar Project Owners Unscathed
A Fork in the Road: How Have the Pandemic and Recession Changed Utilities’ Relative Valuations?
Steel for PPAs: How Large Is the Renewable Energy Opportunity And for Which Utilities Is It Biggest?
With 15% Unemployment, Will Utilities Be Able to Collect Their Bills?
Resilient Residential Sales and Robust Residential Gross Margins Should Protect Utility Profits Through the Lockdown
What Would 30% 2Q GDP Decline Imply for Utility Revenues? And Could Utility Revenues Actually Increase?
How Far Will COVID-19 Depress Power Demand? Or, No More Manic Mondays
Are Utilities Still Defensive? COVID-19 Will Curtail Electricity Demand in Unprecedented Ways
Disease, Recession and ROEs: What Are the Hidden Risks for Utilities and Which Are Most Vulnerable?
Analysts with Rulers 2: If Rate Base Growth Fails to Meet Expectations, Which Utility Stocks Will Be Most and Least Affected?
Portfolio Inoculation: Why Utilities Should Outperform in a Coronavirus Pandemic
Rising Solar Curtailments in California Are Eroding Project Cash Flows and Valuations; Existing Project Owners Are at Risk, And New Project Pricing Will Increase Sharply
Analysts with Rulers: Straight-Line Forecasts Drive Utility Valuations; Which Stocks Are Going to Throw Investors a Curve?
Utilities Plan to Increase Distribution Capex by Almost 50% over the Next Three Years; What Are the Drivers and Can They Continue?
Gas-Fired Generation in a Renewable World: The Example of California as a Real World Laboratory
Which Utilities Are Most Sensitive to the Economy? Utilities to Hold in an Industrial Recovery
How Important Are Interest Rates to Utility Valuations? Less Than They Used to Be
State Renewable Portfolio Standards vs. Steel for Fuel: Which is More Important for Utilities?
Why PG&E Can Still Control Its Destiny and the Creditors Plan Won’t Win
NEE Needs to Make an Acquisition – Which Utility is the Best Fit?
Steel for Fuel: How Large Is the Renewable Energy Opportunity And for Which Utilities Is It Biggest?
Falling Interest Rates and ROEs: A Friendly Regulatory Lag, With Benefits
The Long and Winding Road: How Much Will PG&E Be Worth When It Exits Bankruptcy?
Expanding Rate Base Without Raising Customer Bills; Which Utilities Have Done It and Which Can Do It Over the Next Five Years?
Will Accelerating Rate Base Growth Hit a Barrier in Rising Customer Bills? Not Yet, But Challenges are Growing for Some Utilities
Accelerating Capex Drives Faster Utility Rate Base Growth Well into the Next Decade:Our Updated Rate Base, ROE and Valuation Matrix Favors FE, AEP, AGR & PEG
EIX, PCG, SRE: Gov. Newsom’s Wildfire Fund Highly Positive for All California Utilities
The Cost to Achieve 100% Renewable Energy: A Comparative Analysis of Texas and California
Potential Momentum Plays and Inflection Points in ROE and Rate Base Growth
Exploding Duck Curve 2: Renewables Don’t Raise Power Costs – If Penetration Remains Below 80%
EIX, PCG, SRE: How California’s Cost of Capital Proceeding Will Materially Mitigate Wildfire Risk
PG&E – We See Equity Value of $54 in Our Base Case, $63 Upside, $26 Downside As Potential Post-Bankruptcy Outcomes Skew Further to the Upside
Entergy: The Most Attractive Fully Regulated Utility (outside of California) After Agreement to Sell Final Merchant Nuclear Power Plant
Exploding Duck Curve: What Does It Cost to Achieve 100% Renewable Electricity and What Are the Implications?
PCG, EIX, SRE: Why California Will Engage with the State’s Utilities to Contain Wildfire Risk & Restore Utility Credit
PG&E: Valued Across a Range of Scenarios, We See Significant Upside & Little Downside; Insights from Simple and Complex Valuation Models
PG&E’s Bankruptcy Creates Value by Consolidating Damage Claims in a Single Proceeding and Facilitating the Sale of Its Component Business
GE, SIE, MHVYF: A Primer on How the Power Market Shapes the Market for Gas Turbines, Part 2 – Which Technologies Will Utilities Choose?
Would Splitting PG&E Create Value for Shareholders? Why Municipalization Might Make Sense
Are PCG & EIX Still Hot Stocks? We Assess the Risk of Repeated Catastrophic Wildfires & Its Implications for Valuation; Maintain PCG & EIX on Our List of Preferred Utilities
GE, SIE, MHVYF: A Primer on How the Power Market Shapes the Market for Gas Turbines – Historical Developments & Their Implications for the Future
Portfolio Update: We Are Dropping NEE from Our Preferred List & Adding IDA to Our Concerns List
Will Rising Customer Bills Constrain Utilities’ Rate Base Growth?
Utilities Offer Robust Growth, High Yields, Low Betas and Compelling Risk-Adjusted Returns; Rate Base Growth Accelerates on Surge in Planned Capex and Tax Reform
Which Utilities Are Best Positioned for Rate Base Growth? How the Cost Structure of Utilities Can Benefit or Constrain Growth in Rate Base
California’s Senate Bill 901 Could Materially Reduce Shareholder Exposure to Wildfire Risk, but 2017 Exposure for PCG is All About the Cap
Utilities’ Operating Costs Are Rising: Which Can Control Costs Best and Which Are Most at Risk?
The Challenge of Limiting Rate Increases in the Face of Rate Base Growth and Rising Costs: An Analysis of Capex, Opex and Their Impact on Customer Costs
FERC’s Proposed Restructuring of PJM’s Capacity Market Could Cut Capacity Revenues for Both Subsidized and Unsubsidized Generators
Batteries & Solar: The Cheapest Capacity and Peak Energy Resource Available
GE, SIE, MHVYF: The Impending Recovery in Gas Turbine Orders
PCG and EIX Remain Compelling Investments Given the Legal and Financial Implications of the Cal Fire Reports
Half of U.S. Generating Capacity Will Retire by 2040: What Is the Impact on Power Supply, Power Markets, Coal Burn and Rail Volumes?
The Impending Recovery in the Market for Power Generation Equipment: A Global Perspective
California Wildfire Liability Legal Update: Why Inverse Condemnation is Unlikely to be Overturned by the Courts
The Next Wave of Rate Base Growth – Half of U.S. Generating Capacity Will Retire by 2040: Who Wins and Who Loses?
Utility Portfolio Update: Adding ETR to Our List of Preferred Utilities; FE, EIX and PCG Remain Our Favorite Names in the Sector, While SO Remains a Concern
As Trade Wars Loom, Utilities Combine Attractive Expected Returns, Historically Low Betas and Limited Exposure to International Markets
Tracking Global Power Sector Capex: What Are the Global, Regional and Sectoral Trends?
Power Demand Growth: What Does International Power Demand Growth Tells Us About the Outlook for the U.S. Power Sector?
Can Grid Scale Energy Storage Compete with Gas Fired Peakers? Not Yet, But Coming Soon
Wildfires and Mudslides and Lawsuits, Oh My! Adding EIX To Our List of Preferred Utilities
Section 201: Solar Tariff Determination Coming on January 26 – What Will Be the Impact?
Final Analysis of Tax Reform Shows Substantial Boost to Utilities’ Rate Base Growth: By 2019, Rate Base Will Be 6 to 10% Higher at LNT, XEL, AGR, and PCG
Dominion Energy/SCANA: A Better Deal for Dominion Than the Market Has Discerned, But Unlikely to Close Because Ratepayers Can Get So Much More
Tax Reform and Its Implications for Renewable Energy: Transcript of Conference Call with Tax Expert Keith Martin
PG&E Suspends Its Dividend, Sending Stock Down 9% After Hours; Reiterate Outperform
Tax Reform and Renewable Energy: The Implications for Project Developers and Renewable Energy Costs
EIX, PCG, SRE: The Five Things You Need to Know About the Exposure of California’s Utilities to Wildfires Under Inverse Condemnation and Tort Liability
CPUC Ruling Denying SRE Recovery of Forest Fire Costs Does Not Increase the Risks for California Utilities
Tax Reform and Rate Base Growth: Which Utilities Benefit Most?
Portfolio Changes: EXC, FE Added to Our Preferred List, XEL Removed; POR and SO Added to Concerns List, SCG Removed
What Is the Floor for Rate Base Growth? And Which Utilities Face the Greatest Challenge to Sustain Their Current Growth?
Antiquated Power Grids: What Can Age of Plant Tell Us About Future Rate Base Growth?
Upgrading PCG to Our List of Most Preferred Regulated Utility Stocks: The Stock Now Fully Discounts the Sonoma County Fires
How Would the GOP Tax Plan Impact Rate Base Growth?
If This Is the Golden Age of Electric Utilities, What’s Next? Or, How Fast Can Rate Base Grow in the Long Term and on What Will Utilities Spend?
USITC Determines US Solar Module Manufacturing Industry Seriously Injured by Imports: Why the Worst Case Impact May be Better Than Investors and the Industry Realize
Publicly Traded Competitive Generators: Crawling Towards Extinction
Rising Growth and Falling Beta: Electric Utility Rate Bases Show Accelerating Growth Through 2021
Why the USITC Could Find that Imports Were Not a Substantial Cause of Serious Injury to the US Solar Industry – Data from the Staff Pre-Hearing Report
Which Power Markets Are Most Vulnerable to Energy Storage and Why?
SCG: As Rate Base Outlook Crumbles, How Will SCANA’s Earnings Grow?
NRG Energy’s Transformation Plan: Removing It from Our List of Least Preferred IPPs
Zero Emissions Credits: A Strong Legal Case Just Got Stronger
What Is the Risk of Tariffs on Solar Panels? A Legal Analysis of Potential Outcomes of Suniva’s Section 201 Petition
NEP: NextEra Energy Partners Adds Value By Leveraging up to Achieve Growth, Avoid Equity Issuance
Winning the Yieldco Confidence Game: Long and Short Opportunities Among the Yieldco Stocks
Creative Destruction and Your IPP Portfolio: Flat Demand & Capacity Additions Likely to Erode Gas & Coal Capacity Factors Through 2019
Portfolio Changes: AEP and XEL Added to Our Preferred List and SCG and CPN to Our Concerns List; Cautious on DYN
PJM Capacity Auction Results: PEG, EXC & CPN Win Temporarily, But IPPs Still Lose Going Forward – Downgrading CPN and Cautious on DYN
Time for T&D? We Reiterate Our Overweight on Regulated Electric Utilities & Add AEP and XEL to Our Preferred List
California Cost of Capital Proposed Decision: A Year’s Reprieve Before ROEs Drop for EIX and PCG
Electric Vehicles and the Grid: The Impact of EVs on Power Demand, Peak Load and Electric Energy Storage — and the Impact of the Grid on EVs
FERC Transmission ROEs: Could the DC Circuit Court Overturning FERC’s New England ROE Decision Result in a More Supportive Transmission Policy and Higher ROEs for Transmission Owners?
How Big is the Market for Batteries on the Grid?
Utilities and Other Defensive Sectors During the Trump Era: Which Perform Best – Particularly Against Tweets?
NEE/Oncor: Texas PUC Rejects the Deal: What does this mean for NEE and Oncor?
20% Price Declines for Wholesale Power? The Compelling Social Case for Electric Energy Storage and Why Regulated Utilities Are Likely to Roll It Out First
Which Utilities May Lose from the Rollback of the Clean Power Plan?
Energy Storage Technologies for the Bulk Grid: Will Lithium-Ion Batteries Continue to Dominate Grid Storage?
Electric Energy Storage and the Bulk Power System: An Introduction to the Applications and Impact of Storage
Rising Interest Rates and ROEs: Is There Upside for Utilities? Probably Not Until Rates Go Much Higher
Trump’s Infrastructure Priority List: What Does It Tell Us About Trump’s Priorities in Energy and What is the Impact on Power?
Renewable Energy and Tax Reform: The Impact on Renewable Developers An Interview with Keith Martin, Co-Head of Project Finance at Chadbourne & Park
The Half-Life of Nuclear Waste: Why Entergy’s Nuclear Business Remains an Overhang, But Not Forever
The Impact of Tax Reform on Wind and Solar Assets: How Much Does Their Value Increase and Who Benefits Most?
Tax Reform and Renewable Energy: The Impact on Project Developers
NEE: Why Oncor Can Drive $0.45 of EPS Upside at NextEra by 2019
The Power of Deferred Taxes: How Tax Reform Can Speed Rate Base Growth and Cut Customer Rates
How Will the Trump and GOP Tax Plans Impact Rate Base Growth? The Opportunity and Risk Facing Utility Investors
Ten Days That Shook the World. Since the Election, Utilities Have Underperformed by 8.1%: Are Utilities a Buy, or Is Worse to Come?
Utilities Under Trump: How to Assess the Risks and Rewards
Why Rate Base Growth Will Far Outpace GDP, But Rates Will Not
Reliably Unreliable Management Teams: Which Utilities Persistently Miss Guidance and Which Beat, and Does It Make a Difference?
The Argument for an Overweight Position in Regulated Utilities
The Impact of Deferred Taxes on Utility Rate Base Growth: How a Strong Headwind to Growth Could Become a Tailwind for the Industry by 2020
Is This the Golden Age of Electric Utilities? A Primer on Historical and Forecast Rate Base Growth
1Q20 list and net price trends for US Rx brands
The Year in Pricing: US Rx Net Price Effects of COVID-19, Co-Pay Maximizers, and More
4Q19 list and net price trends for US Rx brands
3Q19 list and net price trends for US Rx brands
Recasting Ways & Means Analysis of US v. International prices, using net US prices
The House Rx Pricing Bill. You Call This Negotiating?
US Rx Brand Net Prices Fell 5.8 Percent in 2Q19
The Prescription Drug Pricing Reduction Act (PDPRA)
US Brand Rx net prices fall 4.1 percent in 1Q19; politics further decelerate list pricing gains…
What would Medicare for All mean for hospitals? That depends on each hospital’s payor mix
Medicare for All: Why it Can’t Happen … Yet
US Rx net prices fall 4.8 percent y/y in 4Q18; 2019 net price declines may worsen with expansion of co-pay accumulator programs
AMGN/MDCO/REGN/SNY: PCSK9 Pricing Update
Rebate safe harbor proposed rule – Impact limited to Medicare and Medicaid MCOs; Commercial Rx sales likely unaffected
Overturned in the Northern District of Texas, the ACA Heads to the 5th Circuit, and Perhaps to SCOTUS
US Rx Net Prices Fall 5.1 percent (real) in 3Q18
AMZN & OMI: Two Birds, One Stone?
AMZN v. Traditional Pharmacy (PBM, Drug Retail, Drug Wholesale) = Netflix v. Blockbuster. Here’s Why
U.S. Rx Brand Pricing Fell 5.6 percent (real) in 1Q18 – Blame Co-Pay Accumulators
The White House on Drug Pricing: “There’s a press event Friday, give me every idea you’ve got”
BMY, MRK, and 1st-line NSCLC: Estimating patient shares in the wake of Keynote-189 and Checkmate-227
Co-Pay Accumulators: Who’s Most at Risk (ABBV, GILD, UCBJY, ALIOY, AMGN); Manufacturers’ Options for Limiting Their Effect
WMT/HUM: Quick First Read Shows Little Compelling Benefit
US Rx brand real net pricing fell 1.1 percent in 4Q17; update and analysis of company outliers
AMGN/REGN/SNY: Top-line ODYSSEY results do not show a mortality benefit
BIVV/Roche/SHPG/NVO: Hemlibra global sales potential $3.0 – $5.2B; reduces global factor VIII demand by 25-55%, bypass agent demand by 90+%
BMY/MRK: Why CM227 is very good news for BMY, and not such bad news for MRK
NVO/LLY: Ozempic (semaglutide) resets the bar for glycemic efficacy; consensus GLP-1 expectations appear too low
AMZN, BRK.A/.B, and JPM Look Set to Fire (or at least seriously trim back the roles of) Their Healthcare Agents
Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines: Updated View
US Brand Net Pricing Growth 0.2% in 3Q17
AMZN: A Pharmacy Role Beyond Rx Fulfillment
Puerto Rico Pharma Supply Part 2: Who has back-up sites off the island?
Reliance on Puerto Rico Manufacturing, by Major Pharmaceutical Firm
AMGN: Tempering Repatha Expectations in the Wake of Conservative ACC/NLA Recommendations
US Rx brand price inflation falls to 1.3% in real terms
ABBV: The Contrarian Case for US Humira Trend
Repeal / Replace is Dead – What Happens Next
Pricing Power and New Product Flow as a Basis for Biopharma Stock Selection
Senate Health Bill: Odds Slightly Against Passage; Would Effectively Shift Medicaid Beneficiaries to Private Insurance
US Rx net pricing trend through 1Q17
BMY/MRK/Roche/AZN/INCY: Text analysis of ASCO 2017 abstracts for checkpoint research activity
ABBV’s US Humira trend: Why genuine slowdown in end-user demand, and corresponding growth in channel inventories is a likely scenario
AHCA: Welcome to Today’s Vote, Here’s Your Program
Roche: The Bull Case for Ocrevus, and the Corresponding Bear Case for BIIB
AMGN: More than half of US Repatha demand will come from Part D; nearly half of Part D users should have monthly OOP costs for Repatha less than $60
US Rx net pricing trend through 4Q16
AMGN: Repatha potential as much as 4X higher than consensus
RINO Stampede: Why the Republican Left will Kill the AHCA
Drug & Biotech Companies with Undervalued Pipelines
Health reform bill would shrink Medicaid, and slow its growth; the bill is unlikely to pass in its present form
The (Senate) Politics of Medicaid Reform; Why Medicaid Shrinks Under Block Grants; Who Wins or Loses
BMY: A Comprehensive Look at Immuno-Oncology’s Next-Generation Approaches, and Why BMY is Best Positioned
BMY: Opdivo/Yervoy For Sale, Current Bid: $0. Seems a Bit Low
WBA could simply close 1,000 (or more) RAD outlets and still have an accretive deal that meets its strategic needs (of defending gross margins as pharmacy networks narrow)
US Brand Pharmaceutical Net Prices Fell 0.3% in 3Q16
LLY/ESRX/Blink Health Insulin Discount Program: Payday Loans for Prescriptions
Channel Wars: Who Profits from Follow-On Biologics / Biosimilars?
ABBV: Humira Pricing … Let’s Play a Game
The (Likely) Republican Playbook to Defund and Replace the ACA
Whip This: The Politico-Economics of ACA Defunding
WBA/RAD: Why the deal goes through with modest FTC concessions
ABBV: Trailing US Humira Growth Driven More or Less Equally by Net Sales and Volume Gains; Looking Forward, either Net Price or Volume Likely to be Negative
CNC, MOH, WCG: Beneficiaries of a Likely Post-Obama Medicaid Expansion
Why Opdivo is still best positioned in NSCLC
US Rx Net Pricing Trends thru 2Q16
IPAB Likely to Trigger in 1H17; Savings Target Small; One-Time Bump in ACA Pharmaceutical Fee and Medical Device Tax Most Likely Result
Despite EpiPen, Voters’ Interest in Federal Rx Pricing Policy Appears Weak
ESRX’ new DMARD formulary points to slowing US sales for Humira(ABBV) and Enbrel(AMGN), with outright sales declines possible. Cimzia(UCB) and Simponi(JNJ) are beneficiaries
Adverse selection on the HIEs is real, and accelerating; why this makes drug price reform unlikely in the early days of the next administration
BMY: The best positioned company in NSCLC
BMY: Why Opdivo still may dominate NSCLC
ABBV, AMGN, and US DMARD Pricing: The Dog and Its Reflection
ABBV/ENTA: Update on HCV
US Rx Brand Pricing: Trailing analysis of net price growth; forward look at brands / companies facing greatest risks
ENDP Likely to See Further Pressure; Why the Underlying Patterns May Be Good for Wholesale / Retail JVs
AGN: Balance of Power Between AGN and Formulary Managers
ALPMF / ^BTK: Astellas, Xtandi, and the Siren Song of March-in Rights
VRX, ENDP, HZNP, and MNK – A Comparison of US Pricing Risks
NVS: Entresto Expectations are (2x) Too High
CYH, HCA, LPNT, THC: Hospitals are cheap, but you shouldn’t buy them – here’s why
GILD/MRK/ABBV: Why Everyone Wins if US Pricing Falls (In a Certain Way)
HUM/UNH: Weak Flu Season Likely Benefit to 4Q15 EPS
HZNP / MNK: The Balance of Power Between HZNP / MNK and Formulary Managers
VRX: The Balance of Power Between Valeant and Formulary Managers – An Empiric Framing
June 19, 2015 – Mobile Payments: The TMT Perspective
June 9, 2015 – GOOG: A Particular Set of Skills
May 28, 2015 – TMT Model Portfolio Update: The Skeptics Guide
May 15, 2015 – SaaS Applications: [Subscription] Software is Eating the World!
May 5, 2015 – TMT: 1Q 2015 Earnings Rundown
April 28, 2015 – AAPL: iPhone 6 Upgrades Setting Up a Difficult Compare
April 20, 2015 – TMT: 1Q 2015 Earnings Preview
April 15, 2015 – Mobile Commerce: AAPL and GOOG Have Home Field Advantage
March 30, 2015 – QCOM: The Sun Comes After the Rain
March 12, 2015 – Digital Advertising: The 7 Habits of Highly Effective Ad Platforms
March 10, 2015 – AAPL: High Priced, Cause it Feels So Nice
February 23, 2015 – TMT Model Portfolio Update: Escaping the Death Watch
February 10, 2015 – Net Neutrality: Reining in the Dumb Pipe Oligopoly
February 5, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: TWTR – BOOM! There’s MAUs in Them Thar Tweets
February 3, 2015 – Advertising: The “Golden Age” of TV Enters its Golden Years
January 29, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: AMZN and GOOG – Looking for Some Investor Love
January 28, 2015 – Quick Thought: FB and QCOM – Beat, Guide and Drop
January 28, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Awesome! Epic! When Should We Sell?
January 26, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Moving Quickly to the Cloud
January 21, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Mobile First, Cloud First, CHECK!
January 20, 2015 – Quick Thoughts: NFLX – What a Difference a Quarter Makes
January 14, 2015 – Ten Investible Things That We Think Will Happen in 2015
December 22, 2014 – Net Neutrality: Treating the Symptoms Rather than the Disease
December 1, 2014 – Twitter: Black and Blue, but Read All Over
November 19, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Qualcomm Analyst Day – Hang On for a Bumpy Ride
November 13, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Twitter Stops the Bleeding
November 10, 2014 – SaaS Revisited: Still Growing After All These Months
November 5, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: QCOM – Little Trouble in Big China
October 30, 2014 – TMT: Portfolio Update – Dreams, Comebacks, Skeptics and the Death Watch Redux
October 29, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: FB 3Q14 – “A Significant Investment Year” or Zuckberg’s Bezos Envy
October 27, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: TWTR 3Q14 – It’s Always Something
October 23, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: MSFT – Not Your Father’s Microsoft
October 23, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: AMZN – OOPS! He Did it Again!
October 21, 2014 – Sensors: What’s in YOUR Smartphone?
October 20, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: AAPL – Surprise! AAPL beats! (actually, not a surprise)
October 16, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: GOOG – Moonshots are Expensive
October 15, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: NFLX – One Strike is Not an Out
October 6, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: HPQ – Another 180 Degree Turn, But Still No Strategic Direction
October 3, 2014 – Consumer Data: It’s Not Just What You Have, It’s Also Knowing What to Do With It.
September 30, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: eBay – OK Carl, Just Don’t Tell Us “I Told You So”
September 22, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple Watch – All About the Benjamins
September 17, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple’s growth is all about the iPhone
September 15, 2014 – Apple Pay: Friend (and Potential Foe) to the Payments Industry Status Quo
September 10, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: T-Mobile’s Uncarrior 7.0 Takes Aim at VZ/T’s Profits
September 9, 2014 – Quick Thoughts: Apple – Go Big or Go Home
August 19, 2014 – Infrastructure as a Service: The Race Won’t Go All the Way to the Bottom
July 24, 2014 – TMT: Portfolio Update – Sooner, or Later?
July 10, 2014 – Apple and Google: On Your Wrist and In Your Car
June 22, 2014 – US Telecom: Merger Mania! Telecom Bankers Rejoice!
June 9, 2014 – TMT: The Advertising Revolution Will NOT Be Televised
May 21, 2014 – TMT: “Culture Eats Strategy for Breakfast!”
May 8, 2014 – eBAY: Betting Big on the Future of Retail
April 15, 2014 – TMT: Don’t Rain on My IPO
March 26, 2014 – Facebook: Dream Until Your Dreams Come True
March 2, 2014 – SaaS: After the Levee Breaks – Competition in Software
February 6, 2014 – Google: King of the Kloud Krewe
January 22, 2014 – Apple: Is Apple the New Microsoft?
January 6, 2014 – TMT: 10 Predictions for 2014
December 11, 2013 – TMT: The Good, the Bad and the MEH
November 25, 2013 – TMT: How the Mighty Can Fall
November 3, 2013 – Twitter: Out of the Nest, Into the Sky
October 23, 2013 – Twitter: There’s Gold in Them Thar Tweets
October 8, 2013 – Twitter: How Tweet it is!
October 1, 2013 – Smartphones Today: Looking High and Low
September 18, 2013 – Mobile Payments: Incumbents versus Innovators (AUDIO)
September 9, 2013 – Mobile Payments: From Cards, to Smartphones and the Cloud
September 3, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: Walking the Topline
August 1, 2013 – Mobile Devices: The PC-ification of the Smartphone
July 17, 2013: The War on TV Part IV: The Biggest Pipe Will NOT Win
July 2, 2013: The War on TV Part III – Reductio “Ad” Absurdum
June 19, 2013: The War on TV Part II – Streaming is Coming
June 12, 2013 – The War on TV: The Attack of the Boxes
May 21, 2013 – Data Center Spending: We Don’t Get Fooled Again!
May 1, 2013 – Qualcomm: Whadda We Gotta Do to Get Some Respect Around Here!
April 19, 2013 – TMT Portfolio Updates: The IPOs are Coming! The IPOs are Coming!
April 2, 2013 – US Wireless Carriers: The Barbarians are at the Gate
March 13, 2013 – Mobile Semiconductors: In Search of the One Chip Solution
March 4, 2013 – TMT: In the Year 2020 – 8 Things We Think
February 14, 2013 – Microsoft: No More Mister Softy!
January 30, 2013 – Amazon: In Jeff Bezos We Trust
January 16, 2013 – Facebook: Stuck in the Friend Zone
January 8, 2013 – Small Cap TMT: Time to Stop Feeding the Bear
December 26, 2012 – Large Cap TMT Valuation: It’s Never ALL in the Price
December 4, 2012 – Google: The Biggest Hammer in a World Full of Nails
November 19, 2012 – Apple: Can a Leopard Change its Spots?
October 25, 2012 – Storage: All Roads Lead to the Cloud
October 3, 2012 – Wireless Carriers: Will the iPhone5 or New Spectrum Revive Carrier Competition?
September 11, 2012 – TMT in 2Q12: Investing for a Three Platform World
August 21, 2012 – Social Networking: The Millennial Application Moves Out of its Parents’ Basement
July 30, 2012 – Cloud Data Centers: Bigger, Faster, Cheaper!
July 12, 2012 – Online Video: Objects in the Mirror May be Closer than they Appear
July 2, 2012 – Portable Devices: Parts is Parts
June 12, 2012 – TMT Paradigm Shift! Which Side are You On?
May 29, 2012 – Video Advertising: The Incredible Disappearing Audience
May 15, 2012 – The Internet Revolution: It’s Not Social OR Mobile, It’s Apps
April 26, 2012 – Cheap Tech Redux: Sifting Through the Bargain Bin Again
April 2, 2012 – Telecom Carriers: Why Aren’t These Cyclicals Cycling?
March 15, 2012 – Television Networks: Betwixt and Between a World of Change
March 5, 2012 – 4Q11 Earnings Update: Plenty of Runway for Cloud Leaders
February 13, 2012 – The Future of Video Advertising: Three-screens, #hashtags, and Streams
January 31, 2012 – Multichannel TV: What, Me Worry?
January 19, 2012 – Virtualization and the Cloud
January 9, 2012 – Enterprise IT: Send in the Clouds
December 16, 2011 – The Four Horsemen of the Internet
December 1, 2011 – TMT in 3Q11 – Temporary Flight to Value But New Paradigm Growth Apparent
November 17, 2011 – The Open Source Software Threat
October 31, 2011 – Mobile Processors: Here, There, and Everywhere
October 13, 2011 – TMT M&A: Fat Wallets and Attractive Targets
September 19, 2011 – Patent Wars!
September 7, 2011 – TMT in 2Q11: Debt Crisis Aftermath Leaves Value Opportunities in Growth Themes
August 24, 2011 – Mobile Platforms: Integrating Everything
July 13, 2011 – Online Payments: Cut Up Your Credit Cards!
June 22, 2011 – Mobile Devices: Flying in the Clouds
June 7, 2011 – Cheap Tech: A Guide for Cautious Bottom Fishing
May 20, 2011 – Large Cap TMT: The Curse of Great Expectations – Launching a Model Portfolio
May 11, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: Time for a Three Month Check Up
April 21, 2011 – Internet Everything: The Coming War for the Consumer
April 13, 2011 – Energy IT: Green is Good
March 23, 2011 – Enterprise IT and the Cloud
March 9, 2011 – 4G: Faster, Cheaper, Better
February 24, 2011 – Mobile Advertising: Check In, Then, Check Out
February 8, 2011 – Small Cap TMT: The Idiosyncratic Method
January 24, 2011 – Storage:Disrupt This!
January 6, 2011 – Online TV: A Cycle Ride to The Tipping Point
December 22, 2010 – Net Neutrality: The FCC Takes Over the Top Under its Wing
December 7, 2010 – Enterprise IT Spending: Worry About the Government
November 22, 2010 – 4G: The Cure for the Common Cord
November 1, 2010 – Streaming On-line, On-Demand Video: Over-the-Top, On the Way
October 18, 2010 – It’s Not Just Advertising … It’s New and Improved Advertising!
September 30, 2010 – Large Cap Tech: The Revolution Will Be Streamed
September 11, 2010 – The Internet Core: We Can Rebuild it – We Have the Technology
August 24, 2010 – Portable Devices: Smartphones, and Tablets and Netbooks, Oh My!
August 12, 2010 – Internet TV: Extreme Make Over – Industry Edition
July 28, 2010 – PCs: Raging at the Dying of the Light
July 15, 2010 – Clouds: Who Will Get the Silver Lining?
June 30, 2010 – Apple vs. Google: Handicapping the Coming Battle for TMT Supremacy
June 15, 2010 – The Coming LED Lighting Revolution
June 2, 2010 – Enterprise Software Giants on the Prowl: Sorting Out M&A Targets
May 18, 2010 – The FCC “Gets It” – Competition, Not Market Power, Drives Innovation and Investment
May 3, 2010 – The Big Future of E-Learning: Beyond a Countercyclical Bump and a Student Loan Scare
April 22, 2010 – Quick Thoughts: Lower Subsidies Will Delay Handset Recovery
April 20, 2010 – A Thousand Paper Cuts: The Future of Cable TV
April 5, 2010 – The National Broadband Plan: Windfall for Wireless, but Catastrophe for Carriers
March 16, 2010 – TMT: The Only Constant is Change [INITIATING COVERAGE OF TMT]
June 22, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, June 2015
June 16, 2015 – June Chemicals Monthly: Treading Water
June 5, 2015 – DuPont Question 2: Chemours is a No Win Scenario
June 5, 2015 – Skepticism + Positive Revisions = Outperformance
June 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, May 2015: Transports Derailed, Late Reporters Unable to Reverse Trend of Slowing Sales Growth
May 29, 2015 – Deere – Not in the Headlights
May 27, 2015 – DuPont – Question 1: Is the Return on R&D Investment Positive?
May 22, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, May 2015
May 18, 2015 – May Chemicals Monthly: Activisms
May 13, 2015 – The DuPont Vote – Short Term Noise – Change is Coming Either Way
May 12, 2015 – Corporate Complexity – Less Is More
May 6, 2015 – EMN – Time to Focus on the Shareholders
May 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, April 2015: Q1 Shows Notable Drop-off in Revenue Growth, Tougher Comps Ahead, Miners Catch a Bid
April 27, 2015 – DD and DOW – Backing The Activists
April 23, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Small-Mid Cap Rankings, April 2015
April 22, 2015 – TRN – Options Abound
April 20, 2015 – Air Products is Running Out of Gas – Praxair is Refueling!
April 20, 2015 – April Chemicals Monthly: Short Term Spikes
April 17, 2015 – Share Buybacks – Borrow While You Can?
April 6, 2015 – Increasing Dividend Payouts – Are Current Policies Appropriate?
April 1, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review March 2015: More Pain for Metals, Transports Starting to Stumble
March 31, 2015 – Small Cap Optimism – Same Results as the Big Guys
March 23, 2015 – Searching for Small-Mid Cap Ideas in Industrials & Materials
March 17, 2015 – Alcoa – A Transformation Story at a Bargain Price
March 16, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly: Outlook Still Cloudy
March 11, 2015 – Optimistic Managements = Poor Capital Allocation = Stock Underperformance
March 9, 2015 – Prices Falling, Dollar Rising – Stocks Defying Gravity
March 3, 2015 – Domtar (UFS) Wants to Talk about Incontinence, Market Doesn’t Care
March 2, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review February 2015: No Sector Spared as Negative Revisions Continue, Deal Activity Highlights Slowing Growth
February 19, 2015 – SWK – Significant Step Up in Cash Flow and Still Cheap
February 18, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly – Volatility:Crude and Activists
February 9, 2015 – Industrial Gases – Pricing Coming and Good for All
February 2, 2015 – Monthly Review January 2015: Tone of Earnings More Pessimistic than Expected – Cue the Negative Revisions
January 27, 2015 – US Ethylene – Who Will Blink First
January 20, 2015 – BLL & CCK: It’s the Geography, Stupid
January 20, 2015 – Another Buying Opportunity in Alcoa
January 20, 2015 – Chemicals Monthly: Free Falling
January 13, 2015 – Own Goal Investing – EMN Presents Another Opportunity
January 12, 2015 – Favorites for 2015 & Industrials & Materials Methodology Review
January 5, 2015 – The Ethylene Conundrum: EMN the Value Play
January 2, 2015 – SSR Industrials & Materials Monthly Review, December 2014: Annual Performance Reflects Relative US Strength, Consensus Suggests More of the Same
December 22, 2014 – Dispersion within Industrials & Basics – Opportunities at Either End of the Spectrum
December 17, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Race to the Bottom
December 15, 2014 – Skepticism Index: Don’t Be Skeptical
December 9, 2014 – Weaker Global GDP Suggests Some Heroic Expectations/Assumptions
December 8, 2014 – LYB and DOW – A Holiday Present From Europe With Interesting Implications
December 8, 2014 – Paper & Packaging – Seasonality Strong, Expect Outperformance in December
December 4, 2014 – LyondellBasell and Westlake – Not Yet!
December 4, 2014 – Large Cap Value – Where to Look if Santa Comes to Town
December 1, 2014 – Monthly Review December 2014: Falling Crude Leads to Further Weakness in Chemicals, E&C
November 24, 2014 – Praxair – An Unusual GARPY Opportunity
November 21, 2014 – A Capital Goods View – Europe & China
November 18, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – Spoiled For Choice
November 11, 2014 – Eastman: A Good Story, But At Risk Of A Complexity “Own Goal”
November 10, 2014 – The China OCC Question
November 6, 2014 – Capital Allocation – Why The Activists Are Where They Are
November 3, 2014 – Monthly Review November 2014 – Metals, Chemicals, E&C Left Behind in Market Rebound
October 31, 2014 – The Power of Positive Thinking – APD and the DD read-through
October 29, 2014 – Containerboard Capacity Additions Unlikely to Affect Operating Rates – PKG Well Insulted
October 20, 2014 – Looking Among the Small Cap Rubble to Find Opportunities
October 16, 2014 – Commodity Chemicals – Overdone? Maybe Not
October 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – A Whole New World
October 2, 2014 – DuPont Can Be A Bad Stock: If Trian is Right, But Gives Up
October 1, 2014 – Monthly Review October 2014: Industrials Cheaper Across the Board – With Some Singular Exceptions
October 1, 2014 – Plastic Packaging: A Wide Range of Markets & Valuations, None Overly Attractive at the Moment
September 23, 2014 – Why 2015 Could Be A Short Sharp Storm For US Ethylene
September 17, 2014 – Rising Dollar and Falling Crude – Bad For Commodity Chems
September 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly – Revisions Down but Stocks Up
September, 10 2014 – BLL & CCK – Can Makers Not Cheap
September 9, 2014 – Marcellus Opportunity: Why We Should See More Chemical Investment
September 1, 2014 – Monthly Review September 2014: Revisions Still Negative, But Little August Downside for a Cheaper Looking Industrials & Basic Materials Space
August 19, 2014 – Natural Gas: The Future Fuel of Transportation – Not Without Help or Some Heroic Assumptions
August 18, 2014 – Deere: Earnings Risk Still Significant, But Likely Priced In
August 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Commodity Chemicals Roll On
August 14, 2014 – US Ethylene: It’s a Record Breaker – But No One Really Wins Quickly Anymore
August 12, 2014 – Paper & Packaging: Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) and the Containerboard Market
August 12, 2014 – To Russia, But Not With Love – Right Now
August 1, 2014 – Monthly Review August 2014: Earnings Season Unkind to Industrials & Basics
July 31, 2014 – CAT: Now Mining Matters – And Trends Are Better
July 28, 2014 – Industrial Gases: APD Must Focus on Costs, But PX the Better Investment
July 23, 2014 – DuPont: Ag-rivating, But Unlikely to Change Without Action
July 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Albemarle Active, Gases Gain
July 1, 2014 – Monthly Review July 2014: Commodity Chemicals Stretching the Limits
June 22, 2014 – Aluminum: Perhaps Too Cautious Too Soon!
June 20, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: All Eyes on Iraq
June 16, 2014 – European Basic Chemicals: There Is Life In The Old Dog Yet!
June 2, 2014 – DuPont: A Cost Initiative Could Be Substantial
June 1, 2014 – Monthly Review June 2014: Valuation Dispersion Elevated as Markets Stretch Higher
May 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Weathering the Storm Well
May 15, 2014 – Chemicals Revisions: Not Positive Enough and Not Supportive of Values for Many
May 13, 2014 – DuPont: The Case for $85 – But Why We May Need to be Patient
May 12, 2014 – Large Cap Capital Goods: Turning a Revisions Corner – Time for the Laggards to Win
April 30, 2014 – Monthly Review May 2014: What Weather? Earnings Strong Even With GDP Sluggish
April 29, 2014 – Dow Vs Lyondell: Bet on the Company With More Levers to Pull – DOW
April 28, 2014 – China Slowdown? The Real Risk is Exports
April 28, 2014 – US Natural Gas: Not Out of the Woods Yet!
April 25, 2014 – Air Products and Praxair: A Tale of Two Strategies
April 21, 2014 – Alcoa: Self Help Can Take You Only So Far – Now We Need Pricing
April 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Volatile Market But Stable Energy
April 2, 2014 – SWK: Upside to Earnings and to Sentiment
March 31, 2014 – Monthly Review April 2014: March Madness No Cure as Industrials Lag in Q1
March 31, 2014 – Petrochemical-Fest: A Summary of the Texas Gathering
March 24, 2014 – Seeding a Better Investment
March 23, 2014 – Why the Basic Chemical Investments in the US Will Likely Disappoint
March 19, 2014 – Peak Valuation in Some Commodity Chemicals: Something to Watch
March 16, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: All Getting Too Pricey
March 13, 2014 – After the Storm Clouds Clear: What to Buy on A Dip
March 6, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: February and YTD Performance
March 5, 2014 – APD: Time to Move to the Sidelines – PX More Interesting
March 2, 2014 – Monthly Review March 2014: Divergent Month for Industrials & Basics as Market Rallies
February 24, 2014 – Dow: A More Optimal Path, But a Hard Destination to Reach
February 18, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: Performance for the Commodity Companies Defies Costs
February 17, 2014 – Dow – Loeb versus Liveris – Watch From A Distance
February 9, 2014 – Rising Natural Gas Prices AND Rising Commodity Chemical Company Estimates: How Can This Be?
February 3, 2014 – 14 for 14 Portfolio Update: January Performance – A Better Start than Denver – Just!
February 3, 2014 – Should We Care About the Weather?
February 2, 2014 – Monthly Review February 2014: No January Effect as Industrials Fade With the Market
January 20, 2014 – Optimists Won in 2013, but Are Now More Optimistic and Much More Expensive
January 15, 2014 – Chemicals Monthly: A Better Fundamental Year – Or Not Enough?
January 9, 2014 – Chemical Companies in 2014
January 6, 2014 – 14 for 14: 7 Attractive and 7 Overvalued Mid Cap Companies
January 5, 2014 – 14 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2014
January 1, 2014 – Monthly Review January 2014: Charging Into the New Year
December 30, 2013 – DD: Still An Interesting Investment
December 16, 2013 – US Ethylene: The Case For A Better 2014
December 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Looking Pricey as We Enter a New Year
December 10, 2013 – Exporting Shale: A More Logical Perspective
December 2, 2013 – Monthly Review December 2013: New Year Focus With Revisions Negative
November 18, 2013 – The Recommendation Signal: Another Reason to Look at DuPont
November 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Energy Volatility Distracts
November 7, 2013 – Lyondell: Growth or Income, Both Have Risk
November 6, 2013 – Valuation Spreads Extreme
October 31, 2013 – Monthly Review November 2013: Industrials Trail the Bull
October 29, 2013 – PPG: What Do You Have To Believe
October 28, 2013 – MOS/CF: Clever Bit of Financial Engineering for Both Companies
October 21, 2013 – Common Sense Restructuring: Some Money to Be Made
October 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: More Concerns Than Opportunities
October 6, 2013 – The Case for Stanley: Why Reversion to the Mean Often Works
October 3, 2013 – Capital Goods: Unloved and Presenting Opportunities
October 1, 2013 – Monthly Review October 2013: Industrials Riding the Wave of Easy Money
September 26, 2013 – Return on Capital Jumps: Some Stretched Expectations
September 23, 2013 – The State of the US Chemicals Industry
September 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Richer Sector With Limited Upside
September 16, 2013 – Optimism and Forecasting in the Chemical Industry
September 9, 2013 – Outliers: Where Valuation is Inconsistent with Return on Capital and Estimates
September 3, 2013 – Monthly Review September 2013: Industrials and Basics Hold In as Markets Brace for Taper
August 19, 2013 – Paint, A Band Wagon and Some Very Poor Analysis: Implications for PPG and RPM
August 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Chemicals Starting to Look Expensive (Except Ag)
August 5, 2013 – Understanding Transformational Change – The Eastman Example
August 1, 2013 – Monthly Review August 2013: Earnings Reveal Nothing New
July 25, 2013 – DuPont: Getting Appropriate Value for the Growth Engine
July 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expecting Negative Revisions for 2H 2013
July 11, 2013 – Q2 2013: Not the Brightest of Outlooks Expected
July 1, 2013 – July Monthly: Midway Through the Year, Metals Still Searching For a Floor
June 19, 2013 – Time to Let the CAT Out of the Bag
June 19, 2013 – Complexity, Volatility and a Market Where Neither Extremes Work Well
June 17, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Mixed Month Midway Through 2013
June 3, 2013 – Monthly Review June 2013: Industrials Reflect the Housing Comeback
May 30, 2013 – Capital Goods: Time to Play the Valuation Card
May 14, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Outperformance Despite Negative Revisions
May 13, 2013 – DuPont: Betting the Farm – But Perhaps a Need to Crop the Portfolio?
May 9, 2013 – Getting Left Behind in the Market – Unless You Have A Story
May 2, 2013 – Monthly Review May 2013: Bulls Rave On, Industrials Sit on the Sidelines
April 25, 2013 – Price Weakness In A Slow Market – Can It Be Different This Time
April 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Stagnant Demand Undermining Pricing and Confidence
April 10, 2013 – US Energy Advantage: Unintended Consequence; Global Overbuilding of Petrochemicals
April 2, 2013 – Q1 2013: A Revisions Driven Quarter – Not Good For Our January Picks
April 2, 2013 – Aluminum: Always Darkest Before the Dawn
April 1, 2013 – Monthly Review April 2013: Capital Goods Out Of Favor
March 18, 2013 – Investing Around R&D: Looking For the Companies Losing the Least
March 15, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: A Few Cheap Stocks with Housing/Construction Exposure
March 5, 2013 – R&D in Industrials and Basics: Just Not Effective
March 4, 2013 – Monthly Review March 2013: More of the Same for the Industrials
February 15, 2013, – Chemicals Monthly: Cautious Guidance Appropriate, But A Drag On Performance
February 12, 2013 – US Basic Chemicals Economics: It Can’t Get Much Better Than This
February 4, 2013 – Monthly Review February 2013: Economic Uncertainty Rules The Day
February 1, 2013 – Optimists Are Everywhere and Most Underperform: A Quick Look at the S&P 500
January 25, 2013 – DuPont: The Uncomplicated Story and The What If?
January 16, 2013 – Chemicals Monthly: Expanding Feedstock Advantage = Higher Values
January 10, 2013 – A Lesson in Expectations: Is There a Bubble In My Paint?
January 3, 2013 – 13 Attractive, Bad or Overhyped Ideas for 2013 Assuming No Macro Change
January 2, 2013 – Monthly Review January 2013: Basic Materials Set to Open the Year At Extremes
December 18, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: The Rise (or Fall) of Propane
December 10, 2012 – Over-confidence Destroys Value
December 3, 2012 – Monthly Review December 2012: Post Election, Industrials See More of the Same
November 29, 2012 – Guidance Matters: Even for Chemicals
November 27, 2012 – Getting the Guidance Right: Some Sectors Are More Self Aware Than Others
November 19, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Down Come the Estimates – Again
November 9, 2012 – Increasing Payouts: Hard to Defend an Alternative Strategy – Dividend Theme Part 2
November 5, 2012 – Monthly Review November 2012: End of Year Questionable as Earnings Disappoint
October 25, 2012 – Unyielding: The Supposed Thirst For Dividend Growth
October 17, 2012 – October Chemicals Monthly: Coated in Glory, But Looking Like a Peak
October 11, 2012 – Earnings Preview: Expectations Vary Widely, Valuations Equally
October 9, 2012 – Commodity Chemicals: Building In the US, an Adventure or an Investment
October 1, 2012 – Monthly Review October 2012: A Month of Mixed Messages
September 24, 2012 – Chemicals Monthly: Cost Advantage Either Priced In Or Not Evident
September 7, 2012 – Grossly Different: Gross Margin Trends Speak (Offset) Volumes
September 5, 2012 – Gross Expectations: Why the Paper Bet is a Bold One
September 4, 2012 – Monthly Review September 2012: Strong Showing for the Industrials
August 20, 2012 – Election Special: Interesting Historical Performance, But Limited Statistical Significance
August 13, 2012 – Deal Flow Update: Big Cash Premiums Limit Odds of Success
August 7, 2012 – Monthly Review August 2012: Positives Driven By Cost Control
July 13, 2012 – Chemicals: Significant, Rather Than Incremental, Risks to 2H
July 10, 2012 – Housing: A Bright Spot, But Not Enough on Its Own
July 2, 2012 – Monthly Review July 2012: Still No Overall Reason To Get Excited
June 25, 2012 – Europe: A Big Deal and Unevenly Discounted
June 15, 2012 – Transports: Travelling Well
June 7, 2012 – Sector & Sovereign Industrials & Basic Materials: Monthly Review June 2012
June 5, 2012 – Inventory/Sales Follow Up
June 1, 2012 – Significant Downside Risk From An Inventory Correction – The Stars Are Aligned
May 29, 2012 – Industrials and Basics: We Should Be Deal Shy
May 14, 2012 – Chemicals Skepticism: A Wide Divergence, Commodities vs. Coatings
May 2, 2012 – The SSR Industrials & Basic Materials Skepticism Index
April 30, 2012 – Q1 So Far: Some Tears, Some Laughter, No Real Conviction
April 16, 2012 – Metals and Mining: Discounting Much More Than Appears To Be Going On
April 11, 2012 – North American Commodity Chemicals: Shale Gale Maybe, Windfall More Definitely
April 4, 2012 – (Initiating Coverage): Redemption May Come, But Only To Those Who Have Truly Suffered
September 13, 2016
Is This the Golden Age of Electric Utilities? A Primer on Historical and Forecast Rate Base Growth
June 23, 2015 – CVS/TGT: What Does the Store-In-Store Strategy Mean for RAD?
June 16, 2015 – SNY/REGN: When to Expect Outcomes Data for Praluent
June 16, 2015 – A Strategic Look at CVS/TGT; Why We’re Still Bullish on RAD
June 7, 2015 – ACA at the Supreme Court: Subsidies Are Here to Stay, Even if SCOTUS Finds for King
June 2, 2015 – US Drug Pricing Stalls. Uh-Oh …
May 4, 2015 – A WBA/RAD or CVS/RAD NEWCO as a Counterweight to Narrowing Retail Pharmacy Networks
May 4, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
April 21, 2015 – ABC/CAH/MCK: US Generic Inflation Continues in 1Q15
April 15, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica and ABT-199 are Synergistic
April 13, 2015 – SNY: The (multi-faceted) Bull Case
April 6, 2015 – CVS, MCK, RAD, WBA: How WBA or CVS can fight narrowing retail networks – buy RAD
March 30, 2015 – AMGN, SNY, REGN, LLY, MRK, & ESPR: PCSK9 v. CETP v. ETC-1002
March 18, 2015 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
March 17, 2015 – AMGN, REGN, SNY: Bull Case for PCSK9’s; COGS a Major Advantage for SNY/REGN
March 12, 2015 – ABBV/PCYC: Imbruvica’s US Pricing Has Room to Grow
February 25, 2015 – WBA, CVS, RAD: There Are Simply Too Many Pharmacies & Now it Starts to Matter
February 17, 2015 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
February 9, 2015 – Motive & Opportunity: The Convoluted Tale of Generic Price Inflation
February 5, 2015 – Why ABBV is Still a Value
January 23, 2015 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise – Update
January 20, 2015 – The Outlook for Brand Drug Pricing Part 1: The Traditional Large-Cap Pharmaco’s
January 9, 2015 – Flu Effects on 4Q14 Earnings
January 6, 2015 – R&D:Sales Ratios Will Fall, Meaning AZN & LLY are Cheap, Research Tools & Services are Expensive
December 22, 2014 – ABBV HCV Regiment Approved; Further Upward Revisions to Consensus Likely
December 8, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
December 5, 2014 – The Bull Case for SNY’s Diabetes Franchise
November 20, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
November 17, 2014 – Hold-Out States Will Expand Medicaid – Just Ask History
November 11, 2014 – SCOTUS Round II: Does King Really Matter?
November 6, 2014 – What Healthcare Stocks’ Share Prices Imply about Future Growth, and How this Squares (or not) with Fundamentals
October 20, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
October 14, 2014 – WAG/RAD: Pressure on generic dispensing margins likely to be much more permanent than guidance implies
October 6, 2014 – Healthcare & the Midterm Elections: Everything You Need to Know
September 22, 2014 – GILD’s Generic Co-opetition: Little Impact on Global HCV Estimates, or to ABBV / ENTA Bull Case
September 2, 2014 – ABBV (and ENTA): The Corvette(s) to GILD’s Ferrari
August 26, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
August 12, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
August 7, 2014 – CORRECTION: GILD v. ABBV: An In-Depth Review of Global Sales Prospects for Current-Generation Hepatitis C Treatments
July 28, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 2Q14 Estimates
July 10, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
July 7, 2014 – The Bull Case for Specialty Drug Pricing
June 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 2Q14 Estimates
June 24, 2014 – Net HIE Premiums Growing Faster Than Incomes; This is Likely to Accelerate
June 17, 2014 – Early Look at 2015 HIE Rates: Avg. Increase = 10%
June 10, 2014 – Large Pharma’s ‘Established’ & ‘Growth’ NEWCOs: A Solomonic Path to More Efficient R&D?
June 3, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data Update
May 23, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 2Q14 Estimates
May 15, 2014 – Poor R&D Productivity as a Self-Inflicted Injury: Who’s Missing the Most Toes, and Why
May 9, 2014 – BIG Monkeys & a Looming Intervention: Pharma’s US Pricing Addiction
May 8, 2014 – Co-Pay Cards & the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth Part II – The HIE ‘Test Case’
May 7, 2014 – Relative Price & Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 23 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies – Updated View
May 5, 2014 – MRK: R&D Productivity, as Compared to Peers
April 28, 2014 – SSR Health New Product Approval Portfolios & Supporting Data
April 23, 2014 – PFE/AZN: R&D Productivity in the Context of a Theoretical Merger
April 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 1Q14 Estimates
April 16, 2014 – Medicaid HMOs: Growth Prospects Undervalued
April 14, 2014 – ACA Enrollment Round-Up
April 7, 2014 – Index of Generic Drug Acquisition Costs Now Available to Pharmacies Nationwide
April 2, 2014 – The Bull Case for PCSK9 (AMGN, SNY, REGN, PFE): Why Estimates Are Too Low
March 25, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 1Q14 Estimates
March 5, 2014 – The Trouble with Hospital Pricing
February 26, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 1Q14 Estimates
February 20, 2014 – ACA Enrollment and Adverse Selection Pressures – An Update
February 19, 2014 – Harvest Time for the Bill Collectors? The ACA’s Narrow Hospital Networks May Spur Demand for Revenue Cycle Management (RCM) Services
February 3, 2014 – Your (HIE-based) Plan Doesn’t Cover That: A Comparison of Drug Formularies On and Off the Health Insurance Exchanges
January 21, 2014 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Final 4Q13 Estimates and Thoughts on National Health Expenditure Data
January 20, 2014 – Adverse Selection on the HIEs – It’s Not (Just) About the Federal Website
January 19, 2014 – Drug Benefit Chicken: An Analysis of Benefit Designs on the Health Insurance Exchanges
January 7, 2014 – MRK v. AMGN: A Comparison of R&D Productivity
January 5, 2014 – Relative Price and Value of pre-Phase III Pipelines for the 22 Largest Drug & Biotech Companies
December 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Interim 4Q13 Estimates
December 15, 2013 – Why Adverse Selection is Likely on the HIEs: A Simple Model of Enrollment Behavior
December 1, 2013 – Higher Premiums – and Higher Deductibles: An Analysis of Health Plans on Offer in 2014
November 26, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Initial 4Q13 Estimates
November 19, 2013 – NVS: Share of Peer Group R&D Spending Exceeds Share of Peer Group Innovation Produced
November 17, 2013 – ACA: Web Problems and Political Drama are Temporary. Ambivalence of the Uninsured is Permanent
October 24, 2013 – LLY: Whether High R&D/Sales is Defensible – an Empiric Dissent
October 23, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth: Inputs Delayed by Shutdown; Early Read Indicates Strong Flu Season
October 17, 2013 – DVA / FMS: Generic Epogen Accretive to EPS
September 24, 2013 – A Simple Yardstick for HIE Enrollment: CBO’s Revised Estimate Looks Like an Outer Bound
September 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q13 Estimate
September 17, 2013 – Update on Generic Dispensing Margins: Even Ahead of the CMS Final Rule, AWP is no Longer the Prevailing Medicaid Standard
September 11, 2013 – SSR Health’s ‘Hidden Pipeline’ Analysis: Relative Price and Value of Pre-Phase III Pipelines
September 4, 2013 – Evidence of Rate Shock on the Individual HIEs: Weak at Best
August 30, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 3Q13 Estimate
August 27, 2013 – Medicaid HMOs: More Growth, Less Risk
August 7, 2013 – Health Insurers’ Participation on the Health Insurance Exchanges; and Current-Market Premium and MLR Patterns by State
July 22, 2013 – Premium Inflation on the HIEs – Case Study of the California Individual Market
July 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Final 2Q13 Estimate
July 8, 2013 – The Practical Relevance of the Employer Mandate Delay
June 26, 2013 – The SSR Healthcare Quarterly, Inaugural Edition
June 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Healthcare Growth, Interim 2Q13 Estimate
May 28, 2013 – PBM Bear Thesis Update: The AWP Alternatives Will Soon Be Here
May 20, 2013 – SSR Index of Current Quarter Growth, Initial 2Q13 Estimate
May 16, 2013 – Buckle Up! A Summary of Adverse Selection Pressures on Health Insurance Exchanges
May 7, 2013 – Cheap, Shy or Just Misbehaving? PFE Sells Viagra Direct to Consumers
April 29, 2013 – Why Smaller Employers Will Shift to Self-Funding; Who Wins and Loses
April 19, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 1Q13 Estimate
April 9, 2013 – SSR Index of Drug and Biotech Pipeline Values
April 2, 2013 – Private Health Exchanges: Why They’re Coming; What They Mean
March 20, 2013 – WAG/ABC – Quick Strategic Read-thru; Better for WAG than ABC
March 19, 2013 – The Razorback Alternative: Is Arkansas’ Medicaid Game Plan a Blueprint for Others?
March 18, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 1Q13 Estimate
March 11, 2013 – Hedge Hospital Pricing Risks with Non-Rx Consumables
March 4, 2013 – The Medicaid Expansion & Why Hospital Pricing Peaks in 2013
February 26, 2013 – SSR Index of of Current Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 1Q13 Estimate
February 11, 2013 -Investment Recommendations Across Healthcare, by Sub-Sector
January 17, 2013 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 4Q12 Estimate – Expecting a Flu-Related Spike
January 16, 2013 – Flu Effects on US Health Demand
January 15, 2013 – The Incredibly Slow (But Very Nearly Certain) Death of AWP
December 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 4Q12 Estimate – Look for a Flu-Related Spike
December 17, 2012 – Why Medicaid Eligibility Will (Still) Level Off at 100 FPL
December 4, 2012 – A Simple Formula for Drug (and Biotech and Spec Pharma) Stock Selection – Updated
November 19, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Initial 4Q12 Estimate
November 8, 2012 – An Index of the Value in Large Cap PharmaCos’ Mid- to Early-Stage Pipelines
October 26, 2012 – Why Premiums Should Grow Faster than Health Costs under ACA; and, Why a Staged Rollout of Health Insurance Exchanges is a Feasible Budget Compromise
October 22, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Final 3Q12 Estimate
October 15, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 4: Cyclical Effects
October 1, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 3: Reform Effects – ACA Looks Like a Headwind
September 17, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Demand Growth, Interim 3Q12 Estimate: Hospital Pricing Accelerates; Unit Demand Slows
September 17, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Part 2: Secular Headwinds
September 4, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand, Part 1: ‘Baseline’ Growth
August 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth: Initial 3Q12 Estimates
August 8, 2012 – Co-Pay Cards: A Bottle for the Drug Pricing Genie
July 27, 2012 – Medicaid Eligibility Capped at 100 FPL: The Logical Outcome of the SCOTUS ACA Ruling
July 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Lowering Estimate Back to 3.1% from 3.3%
July 9, 2012 – Medicaid Post-SCOTUS: Nevermind Whether States Choose to Expand; It Appears States Have the Choice to Shrink
June 29, 2012 – ACA Post-SCOTUS – What Matters Now
June 18, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Demand Growth; Raising Estimate to 3.3% from 3.1%
June 14, 2012 – The Mechanics of Commercial HMOs’ Gross Profits: Why MLRs Should Remain Stable
May 31, 2012 – The Apparent Link Between Employment and Healthcare Demand
May 17, 2012 – Why HMOs are Cheap, Despite Rising Utilization
May 16, 2012 – SSR Index of Current-Quarter Healthcare Services Demand
May 2, 2012 – Is There a Cyclical Rebound in US Healthcare Demand? Evidence to Date from 1Q12 Results
April 16, 2012 – Healthcare Demand is (Cyclically) Improving Ahead of Estimates and Share Prices; Something Has to Give
March 27, 2012 – Why Losing the Individual Mandate is Good for HMOs, and other Earnings Consequences of Various Supreme Court Outcomes
March 12, 2012 – Accelerating Growth in Hospitals’, Physicians’ Offices and Other Care Settings’ Labor Hours Signals Improving Healthcare Demand
February 26, 2012 – Large cap Pharma’s Dependence on US List Price Growth is Unsustainable
February 6, 2012 – The Pro-Cyclical US Healthcare Thesis – Impact of ROW Economic Risks
January 24, 2012 – Hospitals’ Stable to Improving Net Pricing Power
January 12, 2012 – US Healthcare Demand Slow for Cyclical (Temporary) Reasons
November 14, 2011 – PBM Pricing Post-AWP – An Estimate of Sustainable Earnings Power
October 24, 2011 – ACA at the Supreme Court
October 11, 2011 – Below Zero and Falling Fast: Productivity as an Enterprise-Wide Crisis
October 6, 2011 – President’s Budget Proposal Points to More Pressure on Innovators
October 3, 2011 – Detailed Comparison of the AWP Replacements – AMP v NADAC
September 26, 2011 – CMS Starts to (Kind of) Publish AMP
September 9, 2011 – A Simple Formula for Drug Stock Selection
August 18, 2011 – CMS Takes Concrete Steps Towards Replacing AWP
August 15, 2011 – Market Appears to Misprice Risks to Healthcare Earnings from BCA
August 3, 2011 – Healthcare and the Budget Control Act of 2011
July 25, 2011 – ESRX, MHS, and the PBM Bear Case
July 11, 2011 – Why Employer Are Likely to Drop Health Insurance: A Simplified View
June 10, 2011 – What Next for the MLR cycle?
May 24, 2011 – Can Shuffling the Deck Create Growth?
May 5, 2011 – The Thread Holding Generic Dispensing Margins
April 27, 2011 – The (Unfortunate) Irrelevance of ACOs
April 6, 2011 – CMS says AMP is Coming; Why Ortho Demand May Slow
March 22, 2011 – Medicaid Cost Pressures Intensify on the States
March 2, 2011 – Post-2014 Reform Related Volume Gains are Modest
February 11, 2011 – PFE Decides to Shrink; HHS ends AWP; and Drug Pricing Hits a Speedtrap
January 26, 2011 – Ranked Preferences Across Healthcare (Sub-sector by Sub-sector)
January 5, 2011 – Copay Cards and the Stalling of Drug Rebate Growth
December 1, 2010 – Demand Trend Improves Starting 4q; Why HDLC Drugs May be Bigger Than You Think
November 10, 2010 – Uncertainty and Motive in Pharmacy Dispensing Markups
October 29, 2010 – Why Generic Dispensing Margins (Eventually) Must Fall
October 4, 2010 – What a Republican House Means for Health Reform
September 22, 2010 – Skeptic’s Guide to Drug Stock Selection
September 7, 2010 – Why US Healthcare Demand Appears to be Falling
August 24, 2010 – Single-payor (read European) Governments and Your Healthcare Portfolio
July 29, 2010 – Consumers Add Risk; Insurers Add Power; Consequences for Providers and Suppliers
July 8, 2010 – Big Pharma’s Tenuous Grip on the Emerging Markets
June 15, 2010 – Why UNH and WLP Are Better Positioned for Reform Than AET or CI
May 26, 2010 – Why the Average Employer Will Drop Health Insurance in 2014
May 10, 2010 – Bigger Truth About Medicaid Drug Price Effects; PBM Price Competition; and Why Insurers Are Still a Buy
April 26, 2010 – Practical Boundaries of Health Insurance Regulation
April 19, 2010 – Why the Market Assumes Too Much Margin Pressure on Insurers, Too Little on Innovators
April 5, 2010 – Why Insurers Work in a Recovery; Introducing Our Model of Private Insurance Premiums and MLRs
March 29, 2010 – 3 Reform Realities That Aren’t Priced In
March 18, 2010 – Handicapping the Whip Count: Odds Still Against Passage
March 10, 2010 – PBM GMs: This Looks Like the End of the Cycle
March 4, 2010 – Last Chance: Betting the Ranch on a Weak Hand
February 26, 2010 – Post-Summit: Why Large Reforms Almost Certainly Can’t Pass
February 17, 2010 – Introducing our Healthcare Demand Model
February 3, 2010 – Health Insurers Antitrust Exemption
February 1, 2010 – Residual Reform Risks; Subsector Estimates Do Not Add Up
January 20, 2010 – The Political (As Opposed to Procedural) Death of Health Reform
January 12, 2010 – GMs Too High for Pharma, Too Low for HMOs; Why the House Won’t Roll Over
December 21, 2009 – Prospects for Conference; HMO Relevance of New Senate Provisions; Reimportation is Back
December 16, 2009 – Reform Prospects, Declining Risks to Insurers, and Adverse Selection in the Exchanges
December 2, 2009 – Biggest Reform Worry No One is Watching, Labor, and Massachusetts
November 17, 2009 – Why Health Reform Legislation Won’t Pass; More About Insurers’ 2010 Margins
November 2, 2009 – HMO & PBM Margins Expand; Public Option Has the Blues
October 20, 2009 – Health Insurers 40% Undervalued
October 6, 2009 – The New Abnormal: Health Costs Derail Fiscal Recovery
September 21, 2009 – Why the Senate Finance Healthcare Bill Doesn’t Work
September 8, 2009 – Reform Unlikely to be Large; Risk to Insurers Falls
August 18, 2009 – Political Economics and Investment Relevance of American Health Reform
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