TWTR: Beyond MAUs

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SEE LAST PAGE OF THIS REPORT Paul Sagawa / Artur Pylak


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November 12, 2015

TWTR: Beyond MAUs

The bull-bear tug-o-war over TWTR has been one sided, with the stock 40% off its May highs. Is it a buying opportunity or a falling knife? 5 key issues will determine the answer: 1. Can TWTR reaccelerate growth in registered MAUs and/or monetize its nearly 1B unique (including non-logged in) monthly visitors? 2. Can TWTR sustain its real-time information leadership against FB, AAPL, Snapchat and GOOG’s moves into news distribution? 3. Will new services like Moments, Periscope, and Vine bring new users and revenue opportunities for TWTR? 4. Ad pricing dropped 40% in 3Q, but total engagements rose 165% – does this signal opportunity or saturation? 5. Can Jack Dorsey drive change, build morale and excite investors as a part-time CEO in the midst of the Square IPO? We believe that the worst cards may be on the table, with positive news on these issues as potential catalysts to reverse the long erosion from its post IPO highs. We believe that 4Q14 seasonality may have been unusually strong, reducing our concerns over below consensus 4Q15 guidance. Longer term, we believe 50%+ sales growth is possible for several more quarters with improving bottom line leverage, particularly as force reductions play out. The current share price is at the very low end of a wide range of plausible valuations, leaving more upside potential than downside risk.

  • TWTR metrics have failed. In retrospect, TWTR’s choice to follow FB’s lead in emphasizing registered monthly active users (MAU) and timeline views (TV) has been a serious error. Like YouTube, TWTR users need not be logged in to access content or engage with ads. TWTR has more unregistered monthly visitors than registered MAUs, with US monthly unique visitors up 90% YoY as of July. Yet this rapid growth users has not been reported to or accepted by investors. TWTR stopped reporting TVs a year ago, as it did not represent the growth in the number of tweets each user saw. Time spent, calculated by 3rd parties, is misleading – TWTR’s concise nature is a benefit, and drives much content consumption off site, making a comparison to FB unenlightening. Unfortunately, the engagement metric that we’d like to see – the number of tweets seen– is not reported and difficult to estimate.
  • TWTR can monetize unregistered visitors and convert them to MAUs. TWTR MAUs have stalled, with just over 11% YoY growth overall and just 2% growth in the US, for a total of 313M worldwide. Meanwhile, management reports more than 500M unlogged-in consumers visit the service each month. Through their content searches, these unlogged visitors offer more than sufficient basis for effective advertising, similar to the way in which GOOG serves ads to its unlogged users, and TWTR is now looking to target this audience. Meanwhile, TWTR is also encouraging this massive informal user base to register by improving the unnecessarily complicated on-boarding process, by introducing more user friendly products, and by educating consumers about its use cases through advertising.
  • TWTR’s real time content is unique. Amongst TWTR’s 320M MAUs are many thousands of newsmakers – celebrities, sports stars, CEOs, politicians, etc. – AND the reporters that cover them. These verified posters deliver information as it happens, sometimes actually making news by the process of tweeting. In contrast, FB’s new Notify service will push breaking stories from established news organizations, with the editorial and curatorial processes delaying and filtering the news. AAPL’s iOS9 News app takes a similar approach. GOOG’s news is necessarily delayed by its process of indexing the web. Relative to all three, the information available via TWTR’s feeds is much faster, much broader, and much more comprehensive because of the way it is contributed, something that will be very difficult for any rival to replicate.
  • TWTR can leverage new products. Power users may love the firehose of their timeline, but the base app is overwhelming for many consumers. TWTR is moving to greatly ease the process of building a personalized timeline, but also creating new products that package the underlying content into more digestible formats. The recently introduced Moments creates curated slideshows around popular and breaking topics, discoverable via TWTR, GOOG search, or links, and ripe for native advertising. Periscope has become a de facto standard for ad hoc video conferencing, able to leverage TWTR’s strong penetration amongst celebrities and news makers to build an early content advantage against would be competitors. Vine, acquired in 2012, has 200M MAUs of its own. These apps, and new ones based on TWTR content, can be monetized on their own and can also draw new users to the core app.
  • Ad sales are growing very nicely. TWTR’s native ad format – sponsored tweets interpolated into user timelines and charged only when they stimulate user action – is unusually unobtrusive for users and effective for advertisers. Ad revenue per MAU has increased 48.2% YoY, offsetting the tepid 11% MAU growth and driving total ad sales up 60.1% over the past 12 months. Within this, ad engagements were up 165% in 3Q, but cost per engagement (CPE) was down 40%, leading some to assume issues with advertiser demand. Management pointed instead to a sharp rise in auto-play video ads, which carry a much lower CPE – akin to a similar dynamic for GOOG’s YouTube ad prices. Management also suggests that its current ad density is just 1/3rd of its long term target, leaving plenty of runway.
  • @Jack a good choice despite part-time status. Obviously, it would be better if CEO/founder Jack Dorsey were dedicated full time to TWTR. Still, during his interim term after the departure of Dick Costolo, Dorsey executed long needed product and organizational changes, while strengthening morale within the company. As a founder and board member, he brings a deep understanding of the strengths and challenges of TWTR. He also has a strong team, led by COO Adam Bain, himself a candidate for CEO and a likely departure if a CEO had been hired from outside. Bain will have to pick up more of the slack of the next several weeks as Dorsey handles the IPO of his other company, Square, but there is finally evidence of a strong strategic plan going forward.
  • We expect TWTR to continue its strong growth and to deliver surprising profitability. For all of the rhetoric to the contrary, TWTR is growing – revenues and reach, if not registered MAUs. Sales guidance for 4Q of $695-710M was below consensus expectations of $740M, reflecting deceleration but also welcome conservatism against a difficult compare and in the face of fierce FX headwinds. The impact of initiatives to monetize unregistered visitors and to drive conversion to MAUs will likely take at least a couple of quarters deliver progress, but new ad formats and the ongoing shift of spending to mobile should sustain revenue growth in the interim. Meanwhile, job cuts could show meaningful improvement to margins as soon as this quarter. Trading at half of FB’s trailing sales multiple, we see substantial upside, assuming that TWTR is able to deliver the right answers to these questions.

The Long and Winding Road

Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg once said of TWTR “It’s as if they drove a clown car into a gold mine and fell in”. The apocryphal comment from Nick Bilton’s “Hatching Twitter” captures two fundamental truths about the early days of the company: 1) Management was a mess; and 2) Twitter’s critical mass of opinion makers, all posting information in real time, is a unique and very valuable asset. Perhaps, given the first point, it should not have been surprising that TWTR stumbled out of the IPO gate, having promised investors a FB-like trajectory but instead delivering a sharp deceleration in monthly active registered users (MAU). Since then, every quarter has become a referendum on MAUs, with the recent flat-lining of US MAUs coming in spite of professed efforts to clean up the flaws in the app and once again draw new users to the service. At its face, the MAU story is damning – surely the revenue growth created by new formats and rising ad density must eventually bow to the constraint of a limited and static audience. Right??

What if MAU is not the right metric? FB’s business is built around knowing user identities, but most other internet services are not. GOOG doesn’t require log-ins for YouTube or Search, famously whiffed on Google +, and it doesn’t report MAUs. According to management, TWTR sees more unlogged unique visitors each month than it does MAUs, with US visitors up 88% YoY in September. It hasn’t advertised to these visitors, but it could. It has done a poor job of converting these users into MAUs, but it starting to make its service more approachable and to advertise its benefits. TWTR has new products, like Moments, Periscope and Vine, which are bringing their own users and which could be well monetized in the future. Revenue has grown 57.6% over the past year despite that stubborn MAU count – perhaps advertisers are seeing something that investors don’t.

One thing they may see it is TWTR’s unique real time content. Many thousands of celebrities, newsmakers and journalists post first to TWTR, knowing that the infrastructure and service design will distribute their tweets predictably with very little delay. FB feeds are heavily filtered and dependent on user posting and reposting to get wide distribution. GOOG Search must wait for rolling updates from the bots crawling the web. This is a huge advantage for TWTR and one that it will be very difficult for rivals to replicate. We also note that the basic building block of a TWTR timeline, the tweet card, is a perfect native advertising format, allowing sponsored content to be seamlessly interleaved with unsponsored posts. Moreover, the information distribution nature of the service provides strong signals for targeting ads.

Of course, it is far from ideal that CEO Jack Dorsey is simultaneously bringing his other company, Square, public, at such a critical juncture in TWTR’s life. Still, his 5 month stint as interim CEO established a measure of focus, employees have rallied around him, he has help from highly respected Executive Chairman Omid Kordestani, and day-to-day operations are in the capable hands of COO Adam Bain, himself a finalist for the top job. The company’s strategy finally appears coherent in a way that it never was under Dick Costolo – adjust core TWTR to remove on-boarding obstacles and reduce the learning curve, define new services to broaden appeal and create new revenue opportunities, invest in marketing to educate and attract users, and monetize TWTR content wherever and however it is consumed.

This can work if Dorsey and company can execute it. If so, we believe TWTR can deliver 40-50% topline growth over the next several quarters with leverage to the bottom line, demonstrating that the Wall Street obsession with MAUs was misplaced.

Why MAUs?

Twitter has always been in the shadow of Facebook. From its early days, when even Twitter’s founders had no real idea about the service’s future use cases, it was pasted with the label “Social Network”, and even if the label didn’t quite fit properly, it stuck. Twitter followed Facebook into the public markets, and after Zuckerberg and company’s IPO stumbled out of the blocks on mobile monetization, Dick Costolo and his board packed the Twitter offering with dry powder, saving a deep reservoir of mobile advertising deals to play out during its first few quarters of trading.

Bad plan. Twitter’s roadshow presented the company as Facebook 2.0, offering the same user growth metrics on charts that differed stylistically from Facebook’s only in the preferred shade of blue. Consumer reach was to be measured by Monthly Active Users (MAU), counting the number of registered users that had logged in to the service each month. Twitter’s global MAUs at the time of its IPO were about 230M, with the implication that investors should expect the company to follow Facebook’s track to the 1.2B or so MAUs that it enjoyed at the time (Exhibits 1-2). It didn’t take long for Twitter to fall off of that track. A year post IPO, Twitter posted 4Q14 MAUs up less than 2% QoQ with total MAUs still less than 300M. So what if revenues were up 33% sequentially and 97% YoY in the same quarter? It was all about the MAUs.

Exh 1: Twitter MAUs by Region, 1Q10 – 3Q15

Exh 2: Global Facebook MAUs and DAUs, 2Q09-3Q15

Since then, the MAU story has gotten even uglier. In the most recent quarter, global MAUs were up a paltry 8% YoY, with US MAUs, considerably more valuable than international MAUs, having flat-lined at 66M over the previous 3 quarters. The stock has been pilloried – off a third over the past year – despite having delivered 70% sales growth and a surprising shift to non-GAAP profitability over that time. To investors, MAUs had become the canary in the coal mine, signifying an inevitable future, when Twitter can no longer sell more ads to make up for its lethargic user growth.

Maybe, or maybe not. Twitter management may have gladly accepted the social network label, but its business is fundamentally different from Facebook’s. All of Facebook’s users must register to use its services. This is not true for Google, which welcomes and monetizes hundreds of millions of unlogged-in visitors to its Search and YouTube franchises. We believe that Twitter is more like Google than Facebook in this regard. Twitter has reported more than 500M monthly unlogged-in visitors to its service, coming directly, via Google search results, or through links from other sites, many of which embed live Twitter content (Exhibit 3). According to Compete, Twitter’s US monthly unique visitors jumped 90% YoY in the most recently reported month, to nearly 90 million Americans, now more than half the level of Facebook and YouTube.

It is an indictment of the previous management regime that the company didn’t understand that Twitter’s reach extended far beyond MAUs, that they didn’t measure and report that reach to investors, and that they didn’t establish aggressive plans to monetize the associated user engagement. The new management team under Jack Dorsey has a low bar for comparison.

Exh 3: Number of Monthly Active Users by Property

Reach Out and Touch

Twitter’s assertion that 500 million unique monthly visitors use its services without logging in appears credible, given that 90 million estimate for the US given by Complete (Exhibit 4). A deal to include Tweets in Google Search results only went live 6 months ago and has been phased in, but would seem likely to greatly boost unlogged visits with time, given Google’s massive reach and engagement. Moreover, many popular sites now embed relevant Tweets, providing a further audience for Twitter’s content.

This quarter, Twitter is launching a pilot program to serve paid ads alongside this previously unmonetized activity. While it is obviously preferable to target ads as precisely as possible, unlogged activity still provides actionable signals for advertising based on the topic, the tweeting account, records of previous visits, etc. For example, a user uses Google Search to look up an event, a trending topic or a specific personality, and then follows a link to a Twitter page, where Twitter can reference the details of previous visits from the IP address. Today, Twitter is not inserting advertising for that user, but it will, and with a reasonable degree of targeting. Management has asserted that the advertising potential of a logged out user may be nearly a third that of a MAU. Given the growing number of these visitors, this could amount to a substantial revenue opportunity.

Twitter may also be able to re-energize its moribund MAU growth. It is now canon that Twitter is confusing for new users overall, that the on-boarding process is unnecessarily complicated, and that the use case has been very poorly communicated. Just because these issues haven’t been fixed yet doesn’t mean that can’t and won’t be fixed later. To that end, Twitter has introduced the curated thread service “Moments” as a compelling, image driven alternative to navigating timelines and is working on ways to engage visitors arriving via tweet specific links from Google or other sites and convert them to registered users. Twitter has also launched its first consumer advertising campaign, looking to solidify a link in potential users minds between the service and “in the moment” content. Add to this the growing ubiquity of media references to Twitter, with topic hashtags and user name handles – #topic and @username notations are iconic to Twitter – featured prominently on TV shows as diverse as “The Voice”, The Tonight Show, and the Republican Presidential Debates (Exhibit 5).

Exh 4: Unique U.S. visitors by property, 2014-15

Exh 5: Most Popular U.S. Television Programs by Number of Tweets, 2014

Twitter Owns Now

Suddenly, everyone is into the news. Facebook is set to launch an app called Notify that will send notifications of breaking news to users that subscribe to media partners like The New York Times and Buzzfeed. Apple put its own News app on the home screen of iOS9, allowing its users to customize the preferred publications and topics shown to them as choices in the reader. Snapchat launched “Discover” at the beginning of the year, allowing a tightly controlled list of 15 media partners to push published content at Snapchat’s coveted millennial rich user base. Of course, Google has long had an integrated “News” tab for its Search results that aggregates links to published material from across the web on any topic of interest.

While these services may have some overlap with Twitter’s use case, they do not challenge it on the factors that make Twitter so distinctive. First, all of these supposedly competitive solutions rely on published stories, carrying the natural delays that the editorial and curatorial processes impose. Twitter, with its huge population of reporters and newsmakers posting directly to the service, offers up to the second glimpses of news and events AS THEY ARE HAPPENING. Published stories may appear many minutes or even hours after the fact. To replicate Twitter’s currency, competitive services would have to gain a similar critical mass of well-placed and enthusiastic posters, and would have to re-engineer their services around timely, simultaneous global delivery – a goal that has been central to Twitter’s IT design but not a priority for any of its rivals. Either of these obstacles would be considerable alone, and together they may be insurmountable.

Twitter also has a considerable advantage in the depth of its coverage – Facebook, Apple and Snapchat have all built their services around a selected list of content partners who curate the stories considered important enough to be labeled breaking news. Twitter has almost every news source, with stories on almost every conceivable topic and interest area. Of course, this firehose of content has been intimidating to many would-be users, but Twitter’s problem is to find thoughtful ways to easily find the most interesting parts from within that torrent, while most of the others will struggle to have enough interesting parts. For example, Notify may link users to a handful of stories about a football game, Twitter will have those same stories along with direct commentary from players, coaches, and pundits. Facebook may have many of these individuals on board, but their voices are buried in the avalanche of personal commentary which is the primary use case of the service, and thus, discouraging them from using it as their primary medium for distribution.

Arguably, Twitter’s deal with Google to include relevant Tweets in Search results highlights the unique nature of the its content. Google pays an undisclosed fee to index the Twitter firehose precisely because it cannot provide that level of immediacy from its own prodigious resources. In return, Twitter gets to leverage the enormous reach of Google Search – 3.5B searches per day by nearly 1.5B unique monthly visitors – yet Google pays Twitter and not the other way around. Twitter also beats its rivals on direct inclusion in the media – with Twitter insta-polls, live scrolling feeds, and direct audience interaction featured everywhere from late night entertainment to reality competitions, and from sportscasts to breaking news reports. These symbiotic relationships leverage Twitter’s unique immediacy in ways that the other major internet platforms have not been able to accomplish.

It Only Takes a Moment

As noted previously, Moments is new part of the Twitter experience, with curated slideshows combining images, video and text tweets to tell the stories behind events, trends and news, and building as the events unfold. For the time being, Moments is simply a tab within the core Twitter app and carries no advertising, but the future will certainly bring advertising, and if it gains sufficient popularity, it could also bring a separate app. Vine is already a separate app, with an active base of users creating and posting 6 second video loops which can also be posted to Twitter. According to a company blog, 200 million visitors watch Vine videos each month, viewing more than 1.5 billion loops per day (Exhibit 6). Again, Twitter is not yet monetizing this service.

Exh 6: Engagement on Social Video Properties

Periscope may be the most intriguing new product for Twitter. It has become the de facto standard platform for ad hoc live interactive video broadcasts, with many celebrities and newsmakers extending their Twitter presence to include regular Periscope sessions. For example, T-Mobile CEO John Legere has begun to use Periscope in conjunction with quarterly earnings calls and new service announcements. The service has been live for just over 7 months, and as of August, had gained 2 million daily users watching 350,000 hours of video streamed daily. Almost certainly, those numbers are significantly higher now and should continue to expand rapidly. Some day in the not necessarily distant future, we believe that Periscope could have the potential to match the core Twitter app in its ability to reach consumers. Here too, there will be ample opportunity to monetize.

In a world of unicorns where Snapchat and its $50M in annual revenues are valued at more than $15B, getting Moments, Vine and Periscope for free along with Twitter’s less than $17B market cap is an extraordinary value. We also note that Twitter’s operating assets – the gold plated list of Tweeters, the timeliness and breadth of its content distribution, its growing relationships with advertisers, its unobtrusive native ad formats, its unique low latency infrastructure, and others – can be leveraged to further new products and formats in the future.

The CPE Conundrum

In 3Q15, Twitter’s ad metrics were all over the place. Total ad engagements – the number of times that Twitter users interacted with sponsored content – were up 165% YoY, vs. 53% growth in 2Q. The Cost per Engagement (CPE), reflecting the price paid by advertisers for each user interaction, were down 40% for the quarter. Total advertising revenues were up 60%, 67% in constant currency (Exhibit 7-8).

The explanation given for the dramatic shift was a sudden uptake for auto-play video ads, which, unlike typical Twitter ad formats, trigger an engagement without specific user action. Typically, Twitter only charges for ads when users click to expand the tweet or when they follow a link forward, thus earning a premium relative to typical web ads that are charged whether or not the user shows interest. Because auto-play video ads are charged no matter what, the price tends to be much lower. Thus, more “engagements” at lower prices, an effect also seen in Google’s YouTube advertising.

We are not at all troubled by this. CFO Anthony Noto noted on a Periscope session after the quarterly call that Twitter ad density was still just 1/3rd of the company’s calculated saturation threshold, an assertion that seems credible given anecdotal observation. Twitter benefits from having very natural native ad formats – mostly sponsored tweets containing text, images, links, animations, video, and even buy buttons – that fit seamlessly into user timelines, user profiles, trending topics, and search results. Moreover, Twitter has very detailed profiles of its registered users interests, and actionable data on the interests of its casual visitors as well. The context for these ads is also ideal – users browsing their timelines for Tweets or searching for specific information are amenable to ads that appeal to their interests.

With its strengths in these factors, we believe Twitter is in a very small club with Google and Facebook in its appeal to advertisers. In fact, Twitter’s affinity to traditional media gives it some advantages, even over the two online ad titans ahead of it, enabling cross promotions like the company’s Affinity program with linear TV broadcasters. Twitter’s revenue per MAU was up 43% YoY in its most recent quarter, increasing from 53% the level of Facebook to more than 63% over that time (Exhibit 9).

We are also not particularly troubled by the cautious guidance given for 4Q15. A year ago, 4Q14 revenues were up 32% sequentially at $479M, blowing out consensus expectations of just $453M. This is a tough compare, even without considering the considerable FX headwinds. Furthermore, most of Twitter’s ad sales are made on short notice through an auction process, similar to Google and Facebook, leaving modest visibility. Knowing the potential cost of a revenue miss, conservative guidance is to be expected.

Exh 7: Twitter Ad Engagement, 1Q13-3Q15

Exh 8: Twitter Cost per Engagement, 1Q13-3Q15

Exh 9: Quarterly Revenue per MAU, TWTR versus FB, 1Q13-3Q15

Half a Jack is Better than No Jack at All

No one, other than perhaps Jack Dorsey himself, thinks that it is ideal that he is splitting his time between Twitter and his other company, Square. It is particularly difficult that he is guiding Square through its IPO at the same time that Twitter is executing significant strategic, product and organizational change. Despite that, it still seems that he was likely the best available alternative.

Dorsey is a founder of Twitter, a former CEO of the company during its early years, and, recently, its Board Chairman. He lived through the indecision and confusion that marked the Dick Costolo years. He has been privy to the product struggles and Wall Street missteps. He has also had a hand in guiding the company’s extraordinary advertising push, led by his close friend and CEO candidate himself, Adam Bain. An outside hire might have exhilarated investors, but would likely face a steep learning curve in a very fast moving business, likely without Bain, who have likely left if passed over for anyone else but Dorsey. Bain himself might have been a good choice, but slotting him in a powerful COO role makes room for both executives.

Concerns that his long association with Twitter might mean just more of the same were addressed quickly upon rising to interim CEO in June. Under the tech press spotlight, Dorsey owned up to the poor execution of the past and articulated a vision for the future. Internally, he triaged internal projects, accelerated new product developments and drove accountability for engineering results, welcome focus in an organization that had been all over the place during the previous regime. As a founder and a software engineer, Dorsey has the respect of his employees, with recent morale reported as high despite his decision to lay off 8% of the company’s workforce, a necessary move made possible by his focus. It is key that Dorsey can rely on Adam Bain to manage the execution of his plans while he splits his time with Square, and a considerable coup that he was able to recruit the estimable Omid Kordestani, one of the main architects of Google’s business success, as his Executive Chairman. There are very few Silicon Valley executives that would be as well suited to this role as Kordestani.

What is it Worth?

With a clear strategy and a strong team, we are cautiously confident that Jack Dorsey can drive future growth, deliver profits and, finally, get the company out of the Wall Street doghouse. He has a number of levers that he can pull to drive value.

First and foremost, we believe that product improvements, consumer marketing/education and ongoing synergies with Google, media companies and other partners can re-energize growth in registered MAUs. Still we modeled three scenarios around registered user growth – 1) MAUs decelerate to a plateau of 350M, while unlogged visitors continue to grow at ~10% year; 2) MAU growth picks up to 12% annual pace, hitting about 550M by 2020 and cannibalizing growth from unlogged visitors; and 3) Twitter can convert 80% of its unlogged visitors to MAUs, hitting 750M by 2020 (Exhibit 10-12).

Second, we believe that Twitter can double its annual advertising revenue per MAU from roughly $6.50 to $13.00 by the end of the decade. While his may seem a steep climb, ad revenue per MAU has increased nearly 50% over the past year alone. Given the clear and strong shift of advertising spending from traditional media to digital mobile, and Twitter’s assertion that it could increase its current advertising density 200% before hitting saturation levels, this assumption appears reasonable. In our bear case, we assume similar monetization on a much smaller number of MAUs and in the bull case, we assume Twitter can generate $18 of ad revenue per MAU.

Third, we believe that Twitter can grow its overall reach, including unlogged in visitors, from the current 850M or so to more than a billion by the end of the decade. We also believe that it can monetize its unlogged in users at up to 10% of the level of a registered MAU, hitting a level of roughly $1.00 per year per user by the end of the decade. In the bear case we scale this back to $0.75 and boost it to $1.50 in the bull case. All of this is well below management’s hypothetical scenario which assumed a $2.50 per unlogged user revenue potential.

Fourth, we believe that new apps, such as Moments, Vine and Periscope could add 10% or more to Twitter advertising revenues by 2020, offering synergy to the core business much in the way that Instagram has benefitted Facebook. Fifth, we believe that Twitter can achieve Facebook like margins over the course of the next five years, assuming that we are correct about the company’s revenue opportunity.

Tweaking the upside and downside scenarios to reflect more or less optimistic views on each of these assumptions, we reach a wide range of potential valuations, from $23 at the low end and $78 at the high end. Considering that the current valuation of Twitter sits at the low end of this range, we see substantial opportunity for future appreciation. It has been a hard ride for Twitter shareholders, but finally there may be real light at the end of the end of the tunnel.


Exh 10: SSR TWTR Model – Bear Case

Exh 11: SSR TWTR Model – Base Case

Exh 12: SSR TWTR Model – Bull Case

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